Debunk'd: Comparative Evaluation of Delivery System Reliabilty as a Function of Tests

Discussion in 'Strategic Forces' started by Rage, Sep 2, 2009.

  1. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

    Feb 23, 2009
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    Not so long ago, the CNN-IBN produced a startling video detailing the 'shocking' failure of the Indian missile establishment to achieve its stated objectives within a time-bound frame in the face of the technology-denial regime. The video falsified the assertion that the Pruthvi and the Agni were made operational after "merely three tests and suggested, that these delivery systems - the mainstay of the Indian missile armoury, were somewhat unreliable because the number of their tests did not appriximate the "hundreds of tests" performed by Western countries on their missiles.

    Pakisthanie cyber sabre-rattlers, quick to pounce onto the video and far quicker to declare India's missile program as 'inferior' to theirs on the basis of the number of tests and the failure to achieve development goals within the time-frame, sought to insinuate the subtle innuendo of the video and reflect it on blogs, news articles and forums worldwide- without having a clue as to the complete gamut of developments in missile defence in both countries- in particular in recent years, and the relative number of tests. This thread is an attempt to debunk that contumacious conclusion, and to verify that if the reliablility of a country's missile defense system were to depend on the number of tests alone, then India's is far more reliable than Pakistan's.

    Attached below is the overwrought video in its original:

    (Notice the insinuation within the title itself!)

    And the Refutation, composed of a near-exhaustive compilation of missile tests performed by India and Pakistan. This is effective as uptil mid-2008 - since then several more missile tests have been conducted by India, and a lot fewer by Pakisthan:

    Following the tests of the experimental Agni-TD in May 1989, May 1992 and February 1994, the United States pressurized India into suspend testing of the Agni missile citing "another potential proliferation affront to the MTCR" (Agni - India Missile Special Weapons Delivery Systems). The test was of the intermediate range variant of the Agni family that was then commonly referred to as the "Technology Demonstrator". The program was formally suspended at the end of 1995 amid intense pressure by the United States on India to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. It was only after Vajpayee's government took office in late 1998 that the program was finally brought back on track. This was followed by tests of the Agni-II ballistic missile in 1999, 2001, 2002, 2004; the Agni-I in 2007, 2008 (in addition to the three tests of the TD from which it was foremost derived); and the Agni-III - that was only recently developed - in 2006, 2007 and 2008- with several more tests planned in the near future, including one of a 5000 km. Agni-III+ variant with near-ICBM capability in 2009. Therefore, in all, variants of the Agni have been tested no fewer than a dozen times- not "once or twice" as the reporter suggestsm but still a far cry from the West's "hundreds of times".

    The Pruthvi missile on the other hand has had numerous technical tests, in particular its SS-250 variant dedicated to the IAF, in addition to test launches in 1998, 1994, (that involved multiple launches of Prithvis at the ITR, Balasore), 1996, 2000, 2001, March and Nov 2004, May 2005, Jan, June and Nov. 2006, March (Dhanosh), May, Sept. and Nov. 2007, and most recently on May 23rd, 2008. Therefore, in all, the Prithvi has been tested no less than 16 times- again nowhere near the "hundreds of times" of its western counterparts, but still considerably removed from the integral numbers alleged by the reporter.

    In comparison, Pakistani missiles have witnessed an erectile-dysfunction peculiar to that nation: The Babur/Hatf-VII cruise missile was initially test fired from a TEL on Apr. 12, 2005, followed by another test of a second version on March 22, July 26 and Dec. 11 2007; the Shaheen/ Hatf-IV, VI was first tested on April 15 1999, followed by subsequent tests in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2007; and the Ghauri/Hatf-V was tested in 1998, 1999, 2002, May 29 and June 4. 2004, 2006 and most recently in Feb 2008....]; thereby giving the Babur a 'grand total' of 4 tests, the 'Shaheen' (inclusive of both variants) a total of 6 tests and the Ghauri, 7 tests.

    Notwithstanding the fact that Pakistan's nuclear program developed a tad after India's, Indian missiles have still been tested more times than Pakistan's. Furthermore, the Nag ATGM has marked the completion of its preliminary 'development tests' at Pokhran in 2008 with successive successful test launches, and are scheduled for final user trials end year, as did the NAMICA with its successful amphibious trial in the Indira Gandhi Canal in Rajastan on August 08, 2008. Other recent surprises include the Shourya, tests of the Dhanosh and the Sagaarika, as also multiple tests of new blocks of the Brahmos, additional tests of the Agni-II on May 19, 2009 and the expected test of the new MRM Nirbhay in 2009.​

    Therefore, if the reliability of delivery systems were is a function of number of tests alone, the result is a 'no-contest'. Which begs the question: wherefore does the Pakisthani arrive at the conclusion that his country's delivery systems are more 'credible' than India's? Cheesey Indian news channels no doubt? They have an appreciation for yellow-journalism we can never deny.

    No wonder they're such big fans of Bollywoooood!
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  3. tharikiran

    tharikiran Regular Member

    Jun 11, 2009
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    As long as the Pakistanis underestimate us, it serves us well.
    News channels are pathetic.Let the pakistanis enjoy and live in falls illusions. That's all we give them.
  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

    Mar 24, 2009
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    In terms of Pakistani missiles,dont discount the tests done by the Chinese and the North Koreans. They got ready made missiles from those countries which made them go to just user trials rather than any development trials.
    Anyways, number of tests have gone down as it can all be simulated. If we can have a nuclear arsenal based on simulations, whats the deal about missiles?
  5. Sabir

    Sabir DFI TEAM Senior Member

    Jul 31, 2009
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    Good thing about our missile programme is that they dont hesitate to declare failures when they are satisfied with the test results. It gives more credibility to their claim for a successful test. Our missile programme can not be compared with that of pakistan as they can produce missile out of thin air and which never fails (atleast in tests)
  6. natarajan

    natarajan Senior Member Senior Member

    Jul 28, 2009
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    why our india is not trying for ready made missile?
    am newbie in this field,expects detailed reply:wink:
  7. 1.44

    1.44 Member of The Month SEPTEMBER 2009 Senior Member

    Jun 8, 2009
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    The Pakistanis due to their own insecurities will always be ready to pounce on the news of failures of projects in any field undertaken by India even if the failures are reported by 'Indian media' which they consistently claim is unreliable.
  8. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

    May 29, 2009
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    You steal my words bro. thanks
  9. prahladh

    prahladh Respected Member

    Apr 20, 2009
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    Universal Citizen
    Some missile tests done by Pak were just showoff after, whenever we test some missile. So, the number of time tested comes down again. Reliable delivery systems are a function of when they have the technology to evade SAMS, speed, CEP, stealth etc. Number of times tested (the same machine, same people) cannot be a parameter for drumming that the machine is reliable. But for naive people number of times tested gives a sort of automatic psychological assertion that the system is reliable. IMO

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