Bhadra
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I am a new member on the Forum and tried to decipher this so called cold war doctrine as contained in the thread. Many posts were interesting as also hilarious.
To my mind, the doctrine, if at all, is the product of whatever happened in past and is a humble attempt to evolve a military method to gain an advantage vis a vis Pakistani Military.
The Strategic mindset had to completely undergo a natural change in the sub continent after 1998 when both the countries went nuclear. It increased the risk taking propensity of Pakisani Generals resulting they launching Kargil Operation. Kargil Operation was launched under a nuclear overhang with the premise that it would remain limited and would not result in a full blown war. Kargil operation fully established that there was scope for limited conventional operations even under nuclear overhang.
All four wars otherwise demonstrated that:
It was absolutely imperative for Pakistani Military to launch preemptive strikes into Indian Territory to take advantages of slow Indian mobilization as also to offset their lack of depth to their vital areas as a matter of operational necessity.
Pakistan has not been successful ever to gain their objectives by means of military force, be it 1948 or latest Kargil. Indian Army demonstrated four times their ability to offset any initial advantage Pakistani Military may gain at the start of the War. However, intervention by international community proved an hindrance for India taking advantages of its capability to prolong war.
Pakistan in the meanwhile successfully evolved and executed their terrorism based proxy war against India and more so under nuclear overhang or while brandishing their nuclear capability.
In this backdrop, if Indians were to decide use of military means to deter this continued proxy war, then how could it be done.
The line of thinking perhaps is that:
In Pakistan the center of gravity is its " military machine" which needs to have threats of its being drawn to battles and being defeated. As economic, political, diplomatic and other means are likely to fail in deterring this military machine from using terrorism as means of state policy, more so while brandishing another terror weapon – nuclear bomb, use of military machine by India still remains a viable option.
Unacceptable attrition still remains a viable means of deterring Pak Military.
If Indian Military is required to be used as a viable option, then –
Mobilization advantages of Pakistani Military be offset. Strike first, strike fast and strike with viable Force.
Pakistan must be attacked at as many broadly spread points, say eight to ten spread from North to South to make them react every where thereby weakening application of reserves and making then unbalanced. It May also open gaps for further application of larger forces.
Further application of larger forces then be carried out at own choosing and time in sequential manner like an expanding torrent to draw in maximum Pakistani reserves for destruction.
Strategic Forces of Pakistan should be forces to applied in piecemeal and spitted and thereby be destroyed in detail.
Gain military advantage as quickly as possible before the nuclear threshold is crossed or international community or China intervenes for which a strong dissuasive posture would be adequate.
While undertaking this, be ready for a full blown war. Rapidly destroy Pakistani Forces and then switch over to North and East if threatened there.
From a small beginning retain ability to escalate application of conventional forces till Pakistan comes to the terms.
Capture of territory only to draw Pakistani Forces. Main aim always should be destruction of the Forces while avoiding population. However, end the war inside Pakistan.
If such were the basic postulation, how this could be achieved under operational art is what Indian Forces may be trying to achieve. One may call it cold start or by any other name.
The sole idea is that Pakistan must pay for their acts of terrorism, in Karchi, Baluchistan, NWFP if not on the battle field for which Indian Military should be ready as one of the means.
Not necessarily first means, as many Pakistanis think as they ask as to why military was not applied after Bombay attack. I think Bombay attack will be answered with adequate compounded interest.
All actions of Indian Military is being directed towards it as is available in the open source such as from firing of Prahar to acquiring Globe Masters or Eurofighters etc.
The above note as culled form the "open source" (including Col Ahmad Ali of IDSA) is very generic based on my understanding. However, it would entail a Herculean effort to put it on ground to be executed and durected from Delhi. There are no short cuts I believe.
But it will be, even if in half measure, it should be successful as Pakistanis would also be half measured to face it. But this time around it is not going to be another riot.
To my mind, the doctrine, if at all, is the product of whatever happened in past and is a humble attempt to evolve a military method to gain an advantage vis a vis Pakistani Military.
The Strategic mindset had to completely undergo a natural change in the sub continent after 1998 when both the countries went nuclear. It increased the risk taking propensity of Pakisani Generals resulting they launching Kargil Operation. Kargil Operation was launched under a nuclear overhang with the premise that it would remain limited and would not result in a full blown war. Kargil operation fully established that there was scope for limited conventional operations even under nuclear overhang.
All four wars otherwise demonstrated that:
It was absolutely imperative for Pakistani Military to launch preemptive strikes into Indian Territory to take advantages of slow Indian mobilization as also to offset their lack of depth to their vital areas as a matter of operational necessity.
Pakistan has not been successful ever to gain their objectives by means of military force, be it 1948 or latest Kargil. Indian Army demonstrated four times their ability to offset any initial advantage Pakistani Military may gain at the start of the War. However, intervention by international community proved an hindrance for India taking advantages of its capability to prolong war.
Pakistan in the meanwhile successfully evolved and executed their terrorism based proxy war against India and more so under nuclear overhang or while brandishing their nuclear capability.
In this backdrop, if Indians were to decide use of military means to deter this continued proxy war, then how could it be done.
The line of thinking perhaps is that:
In Pakistan the center of gravity is its " military machine" which needs to have threats of its being drawn to battles and being defeated. As economic, political, diplomatic and other means are likely to fail in deterring this military machine from using terrorism as means of state policy, more so while brandishing another terror weapon – nuclear bomb, use of military machine by India still remains a viable option.
Unacceptable attrition still remains a viable means of deterring Pak Military.
If Indian Military is required to be used as a viable option, then –
Mobilization advantages of Pakistani Military be offset. Strike first, strike fast and strike with viable Force.
Pakistan must be attacked at as many broadly spread points, say eight to ten spread from North to South to make them react every where thereby weakening application of reserves and making then unbalanced. It May also open gaps for further application of larger forces.
Further application of larger forces then be carried out at own choosing and time in sequential manner like an expanding torrent to draw in maximum Pakistani reserves for destruction.
Strategic Forces of Pakistan should be forces to applied in piecemeal and spitted and thereby be destroyed in detail.
Gain military advantage as quickly as possible before the nuclear threshold is crossed or international community or China intervenes for which a strong dissuasive posture would be adequate.
While undertaking this, be ready for a full blown war. Rapidly destroy Pakistani Forces and then switch over to North and East if threatened there.
From a small beginning retain ability to escalate application of conventional forces till Pakistan comes to the terms.
Capture of territory only to draw Pakistani Forces. Main aim always should be destruction of the Forces while avoiding population. However, end the war inside Pakistan.
If such were the basic postulation, how this could be achieved under operational art is what Indian Forces may be trying to achieve. One may call it cold start or by any other name.
The sole idea is that Pakistan must pay for their acts of terrorism, in Karchi, Baluchistan, NWFP if not on the battle field for which Indian Military should be ready as one of the means.
Not necessarily first means, as many Pakistanis think as they ask as to why military was not applied after Bombay attack. I think Bombay attack will be answered with adequate compounded interest.
All actions of Indian Military is being directed towards it as is available in the open source such as from firing of Prahar to acquiring Globe Masters or Eurofighters etc.
The above note as culled form the "open source" (including Col Ahmad Ali of IDSA) is very generic based on my understanding. However, it would entail a Herculean effort to put it on ground to be executed and durected from Delhi. There are no short cuts I believe.
But it will be, even if in half measure, it should be successful as Pakistanis would also be half measured to face it. But this time around it is not going to be another riot.