Civil war in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Europe and Russia' started by pmaitra, Jul 4, 2014.

  1. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    Trench warfare in Donbas
    (post from Armchair general.com)



    Some russian guy helped me with the translation of the following report, by a Donbass war correspondent, so I repost it to save you the ache of having to google translate my blog entry.

    In a nutshell,

    - The danger is that ukrops can launch an attack from a standing start with no or only minimal extra preparation. They also have the advantage that they know they are not going to be attacked, and so they can dictate when and where military action takes place

    - In any event, pffensive will not take place until it gets warm and mud dries, two weeks left

    - My personal opinion is that ukranian army is very poor and deficient and cannot easily transition from defense to attack, given the inertia and "taking roots" factor of static positional warfare. At any rate, even if the plans and troops have been in place for a long time, the logistic buildup of supplies, fuel and artillery ammunition would take several days and be very noticeable. In my opinion, the gradual buildup of ukranian forces, by small packets week after week it is not due to subtlety or a desire to tiptoe across the threshold of Minsk agreements instead of breaking them in one bold step. Rather reflects the limited ability of the ukranian command in planning and logistics. Furthermore, the prolonged concentration of troops is counterproductive, as troops in the trenches get worn out, even if there is little fighting, and have to be rotated to the rear for rest and refit. It seems to be the case here, where brigades wich should logically be the spearhead of the offensive are relieved from the line after having sustained heavy casualties during the last month.

    - the following report suggests that Ukrops will not try to breach the front since it is hopeless but try to slaughter the NAF by means of attrition in positional warfare. It is reminiscent of what Falkenhayn planned to do at Verdun, 100 years ago. Since breaking the static front was so difficult, let's provoke the enemy into an attrition fight where they will be bled white. This idea of provoking the novorussians to attack and fight a defensive one is a sensible one and perhaps the best option for the ukranians. But it is risky as the attrition cuts both ways.


    On the report by Marina Kharkova -

    Attacks on army positions of the DNR and settlements of the Republic with the use of weapons, some of which were kept concealed from February 2015, more and more acquire the character of speculative fire. Such operations are usually conducted by forward echelons of an assult force.

    ATO spent all of March reinforcing the combat zone with weapons and military equipment. The Ukrainian armed forces command has built their strength in three lines. However, as practice shows, the Ukrainian military is compromised by keeping it's forces in one place for long periods of time.

    Gorlovka and Makeevka have been subjected to heavy bombardment by ukrops, and the Nazis used all available types of AA guns, mortars and artillery from 23mm to 152mm heavy howitzers.

    1. On the front line at Staromikhailovka there is a difficult situation with attacks by mortars and snipers day and night.

    A VSN unit commander was killed, and tho the bullet was not recovered, it is believed to have been NATO type ammunition fired from Polish snipers out of Marinka

    In general, the problem of snipers all along the front has increased tremendously.

    2. The situation in the southern front at Kominternovo - Sahanka has deteriorated and the amount of shelling by all types of weapons except MLRS has increased.

    3. The industrial area of Avdeevka and the Yasinvataya blockpost is under grueling fire, and figting continues to press the enemy back and supress their firing positions. Night fighting equipment was responsible for the shelling of east Makeevka.

    Today I met with army sappers and de-mining sappers. These heroic guys explained the tricks they used to remove mines, like hooking them with a device like a fishing rod and pulling them, and that they bear losses. In general, very interesting.

    I am doing less because of physical fatigue. For instance yesterday I drove 160 km back and forth between Staromikhailovka and hospitals in Donetsk. There is also psychological fatigue. Everything is so senseless and without mercy that I cannot analize it or how rebel forces carry on.



    On the increased attacks

    , the translation is reasonable, so just a summary.

    The attacks are to hit the morale of soldiers and civilians.

    The attacks at Avdeevka/Yasinovataya are a protracted recconaisance, but as they have been going on since early March then likely will not develop into anything more serious.

    By June ATO will increase attacks to 200 per day to try to force VSN to the offensive and fall on well prepared ATO defensive positions.

    If VSN do go on the offensive, Kiev will hope they will loose so many men and equipment that they can successfully counter-attack.

    If VSN do not go on the offensive in the summer, then Kiev will increase the attacks to 500-1000 a day and so force VSN onto the offensive.

    This situation cannot continue as each side may loose 100 men (killed) a day, the only outcome being either a diplomatic solution to properly freeze the conflict, or VSN will attack.
     
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  2. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    Kyiv: Moscow trying to staff its new army corps ‘exclusively’ by Ukrainian citizens

    Valentin Fedichev, the head of the Ukrainian defense ministry’s department for social and humanitarian policy, says that the Russian military is “forming a third army corps and staffing it “exclusively with Ukrainian citizens.” To date, he adds, some 5,000 have signed up.

    Such a unit, if it is actually being formed and there is as yet no confirmation, could introduce a troubling new element in the Ukrainian conflict, possibly allowing Moscow to launch a larger invasion of Ukraine but portraying it in a way that some might find plausible as the actions not of the Russian military but of a “Ukrainian” unit instead.

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/02/...krainian-citizens-euromaidan-press/#arvlbdata
     
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  3. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    The above linked message shows how Ukraine's propaganda plays it both ways:

    a. It portrays the LNR and DNR armies as mostly Russian staffed.
    b. Now this message plays the opposite theme that Russia is building an army with Ukrainian citizens.

    I always believed that option (b) is what is playing out. Russia has three million Ukrainian citizens of LNR and DNR to play with. In a time of destroyed economy, the only viable profession left is military service. I shall not be surprised if up to 5% of this 3 million opt to join military service. This gives Russia a pool of 150,000 persons.

    Russia has the tools necessary to win back more Ukrainian territory by purely military means without deploying Russian army. So Russia does have a strategy for Ukraine.

    Russian citizens can work in LNR and DNR armies without any problem, just as foreign citizens can work in Ukrainian army or militia.

    Russia can finance/equip LNR and DNR armies just as West is financing Kiev's military. There is nothing illegal about it.
     
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  4. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    The Novorossiayns need to hold onto the little territory they have leaving the vast majority of the land in control of the Kiev Regime. If this continues for a few years, the Kiev Regime will collapse, and the chocolate seller will probably run away to Israel or the US, along with Vlad Groysman and Arsenic Yatz. There will be chaos, but eventually, Russia can influence the new leaders to have Ukraine, aka Malorossiya, join and become a part of the Russian Federation.
     
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  5. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Only external invasion holds Poroshenko in power. He's all tired. Those who were behind the Euromaidan - disappointed, just as with the coming to power of Yushchenko in 2004. The only thing that unites the people is the aggression of Russia.
    It depends on how long Russia will be able to contain the "Narkomanic Republics". There is no economy. If you think Poroshenko is the source of evil, you are sadly mistaken. If you become President, something radical, he would liberate the Donbass at the cost of tens of thousands of victims.
     
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  6. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Well, there is no economy anywhere. Novorossiyans control a small territory. I do not think they are doing any worse than whatever is left of Ukraine. Moreover, their small territory can be taken care of by Russia.
     
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  7. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    In the occupied territory more than 2 million people. Almost the population of Armenia. Half of them pensioners. Donbass economy is export-oriented. To export, they now can not even metal in Russia, because coke plants and ore are under the control of Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities hope also like you in relation to DNR\LNR, that Russia will not be able to pay 90% of their budget. So they chose a defensive strategy..
     
  8. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    People count more than territory. Crimea and Donbas is 5M Ukrainians in Russia's pocket. Plus around 1.5M temporary workers who may never return to Ukraine now.

    Demography matters. It is +6.5M for Russia but -6.5M for Kiev.

    Akim posts constant nonsense on this thread. The pre-war population of "occupied" DNR/LNR was 4.5M. It is now estimated between 3 and 3.5M.

    This "half pensioners" is another nonsense.

    People generate income. It is a fallacy that Putin is funding Donbas. They have farms and industry. They are highly educated people.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2016
  9. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    People certainly count. The importance of territory is control of resources and choke-points. In case of Russia, there is no dearth of resources, so I think in this case, people count more.
     
  10. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    This is foolishness. If I am Russian - I don't have to love Russia. Gastarbeiters are working where there is the opportunity to earn.
    What industry? As we say in Odessa: "Do not make laugh my slippers"
    Metal will be the price of gold, if Russia will start deliveries of its ore and coke. A striking example - metallurgical combine in Transnistria. He's gone.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2016
  11. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    Right from the Empire's mouthpiece (crisisgroup.org):

    "After showing little interest in building political institutions in the DNR and LNR or enthusiasm for funding social policies, Moscow has begun in the past four or five months to bankroll pensions, social benefits and salaries to local officials and the separatist military forces. If consistently maintained, this will cost it over $1 billion a year, a substantial sum for the Russian treasury in straitened economic times."

    "Some observers in Donetsk are persuaded the measures are increasingly clear signs Moscow has decided to transform the crisis into a frozen conflict, a scenario international participants in the peace talks have long feared. Though a protracted conflict in eastern Ukraine would be very different from those in Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Transnistria, it would have the advantage for Russia of pushing the issue further off the international agenda."

    So somebody is paying the bills afterall. Remember this one billion from Russia + military equipment, ammo + food and medical aid + remittances - adds up to quite a lot of money.

    With farm income as another primary source (let us forget industry for a moment), the figure for primary income will be at least 3B. Well accepted multiplier for GDP is 3x primary income. Let us take 2x multiplier due to depressed conditions. So DNR/LNR economy can be taken as 6B at the minimum.

    Assuming 3M people, this is around $2000 per capita. The Kiev ruled part of Ukraine is $80B/$38M or roughly $2200 per capita.

    If we add the value of mining and some amount of value addition, the per capita of LNR/DNR may calculate to same as rest of Ukraine.

    I believe Russia has already taken steps to balance economic condition of LNR/DNR with rest of Ukraine.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2016
  12. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Metal will be the price of gold? What is that even supposed to mean?
     
  13. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    There is a saying: цена дороже золота. It means that valuable steel is not cost effective.
    The Kremlin had a desire to create in Ukraine a new FRG/GDR on the Dnieper river, but was able to overpower the only part of the Donbass.
    About the theory don't tell. I repeat - it never coincides with reality. Residents of Transnistria is also in the money were supposed to swim.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2016
  14. gadeshi

    gadeshi Senior Member Senior Member

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    You tell us bullsit again.
    Poroshenko is a mafia boss, like Janukovich before him. He has became a president to be another Janukovich, not to start a war with Russia. But Americans that brougt him to power wanted him not to sit on financial roots, but establish nazi regime and draw Russia into war with EU. Poroshenko is not ready for this even still. It is clearly visible by how has he got older, almost all gray and exausted.
    Russian agression? Are you serious?
    Have you any evidence? Have you seen, how Russia really fights wars in Syria and great maneuvers?
    Just a crap in your head, as always...
    Ukrainian society is not united at all. All the "unity" is just a media picture playing by maidaun-infected active minority (less than 1% of population). Actually ukrainian society is divided and shuttered like never before.

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  15. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    You always make me smile. Crimea it is considered to be? Even Putin admitted that his soldiers had blocked the Ukrainian units. Types of aggression are different. And about Syria, we talked. Easy to bomb others when they only of air defense ZPU-4. When did SAM Кub - Putin went from there, providing this opportunity aviation of Assad,and who's already lost a MiG-21 and 23.
    Ukrainian society is divided? On may 2 this year in Odessa have shown. Came to the rally only old people and the relatives of the victims. Only a few hundred.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2016
  16. gadeshi

    gadeshi Senior Member Senior Member

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    Putins SSO units have just protected crimeans from nazi scumm that have going to Crimea by 3 trains to kill and ravage Russians in Crimea and to spoil referendum.
    Crimeans wanted to return home to Russia, this is the fact.
    Bombing ISIS is almost the same as to bomb Ukraine. Ukraine has no serious AD. All that it has can be easily jammed by ECM suits and destroyed by cruise missiles and dymb bombs. Once some of Buks or even S-300 will survive, they can be easily knocjed down by ARMS (S-300 PS/PT have 75km range against 110km for even old Soviet Kh-31P and Kh-58U ARMs). We have discussed this many times with examples, but your stupid brain is irrelevant to facts.

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  17. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Here I have a feeling sometimes that you write not from Kharkov. The same words, as in Russian propaganda sites. Therefore, your military knowledge in air defense, even not want to comment.
     
  18. gadeshi

    gadeshi Senior Member Senior Member

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    Most people in Kharkov think like me even if they wan't speak it in open manner.
    Therefore, Crimeans wanted to return home to Russia and this is a proven fact. It is proven by numerous public polls made after referendum by western social analysis companies (from Germany and US).
    All admit this, even US, but not you :)

    About AD: Orly? I have no knowledge being on AD cathedra in the university? :)
    So enlight me about how 3 battalions of mammouth crap old S-300PS and PT and 5 battalions of Buk-M1( was 7 but Yuschenko has gave 2 of them to Saakashvilli in 2008) can survive supersonic ARMs attack being incapable of hitting those missiles and having no Gazetchik-M self defense suits? :)
    Or may be Ukrainian AD has point-defence suits like Tor-M2 that can hit supersonic guided munitions in flight? :)
    Or Ukrainian AD is centralised, automated and network centric? :)
    Russian CMs and WW planes will and just decimate ukrainian AD from the safe distance :)

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    Last edited: May 8, 2016
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  19. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Of course.:) I with you do not argue. The Turks were only one of the AA missiles.
    What many Kharkiv citizens think like you, with this I can agree, as many people in Donetsk do not support DNR. Just you describe the situation, which I have never seen, although in April, traveled half of Ukraine.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2016
  20. gadeshi

    gadeshi Senior Member Senior Member

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    I aleays known you are ignorant moron but this much...
    Turkey is a part of US-lead anti-ISIS coalition and musted to comply Russian-US agreements in inter-coalition air cooperation.
    So Russians had not taken any anti-Turk measures or actions as Turkey was believed an ally. Shooting down Su-24M2 was US-ordered provocation to prove Karries words about US coalition retaliation for operations against ISIS.
    After this all bombing forces were escorted by heavy fighters forcing Turk F-16 to sit down on their bases for 2 months.
    If Russians will decide to bomb Turkey they will not just fly near Turkish borders :)

    As for Ukrainian AF... It's not AF, but just a bad joke. 16 to 24 flight-capable old Su-27P and 16 MiG-29 (9-13) without modernization, proper weapons and defence suits are useless against even Su-27SM (not speaking about SU-30SM and Su-35S) from Rostov and Crimea. And those SMs are twice superior in numbers :)

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