Chinese GDP according to my estimates

[TrueSpirit]

TS, please understand basic Economics. Demand and supply, when their is demand their is supply. Not the other way round. Means when their is supply demand wont be their. If you see they are creating artificial demand for it and that is what driving their alleged economy. You must have read about Ghost towns and malls in China.

you must have saw that thread, where the Village land was taken and new multistory houses were made and given to farmers without any demand from their side.

So that they are really doing they are jacking up the demand for steel, cement and other things for construction industry, without actual demand for it. Now when they calculate their GDP this is reflected in it, thereby artificially jacking up. Just one example.

Yeah, I have read enough of that. But, it is completely immaterial.

What really matter it: India needs better roads, more roads, some electricity (at least a few hours a day), drinking water supply, faster rail-cars as well as improved aviation & shipping infra.

That we have failed to do so is evident to anyone who has lived in India or even visits India occasionally. No amount of excuses can justify our incompetence/debacle at creating basic infrastructure. Forget our thousands of villages & towns, only few pockets of our metro cities have decent civic infra.

And, it is not that we have saved our cities, rivers & air from pollution. On the contrary, we have some of the most polluted air in the developing world & much worse for our rivers & groundwater.

Unless we admit our flaws, we would remain a third-world country. Infrastructure building is something that the world ought to learn from the Chinese. They built more infra in Shanghai in last 20 years than New York has seen in last 120 years of its existence. It is no rhetoric but a fact grounded in reality. And, the quality is indeed world-class. They hire the best & their execution efficiency is more than commendable.

More than basic economics, I think it is about courage to admit one's shortcoming & common sense to focus/fix the same.

 

[Srinivas_K]

Infrastructure building is something that the world ought to learn from the Chinese. They built more infra in Shanghai in last 20 years than New York has seen in last 120 years of its existence. It is no rhetoric but a fact grounded in reality. And, the quality is indeed world-class. They hire the best & their execution efficiency is more than commendable.

A country should only build when the requirement is there, I accept our infrastructure is poor but that do not mean we need bigger infrastructure. The infrastructure development is proportional to the economy and its sustainability.


Not like ....... since the exports fell in 2008 and so we will stimulate the economy with bail out package and build more there by creating more jobs and keep up the GDP growth.

 

[TrueSpirit]

A country should only build when the requirement is there, I accept our infrastructure is poor but that do not mean we need bigger infrastructure

We suck at creating infrastructure, whereas the Chinese excel in that. That's the gist.

Rather than nit-picking at China & resorting to puerile excuses, lets look at the mess that is India & do something constructive rather than relentlessly arguing & not accepting the obvious.

Living in denial is too Paki, lets not act like them. Rather, we own up our shortcomings & try to emulate those who have done way better for themselves.

 

[Srinivas_K]

We suck at creating infrastructure, whereas the Chinese excel in that. That's the gist.

Rather than nit-picking at China & resorting to puerile excuses, lets look at the mess that is India & do something constructive rather than relentlessly arguing & not accepting the obvious.

Living in denial is too Paki, lets not act like them. Rather, we own up our shortcomings & try to emulate those who have done way better for themselves.

Nobody here is living in denial or imitating pakistanis, we are discussing truths in this thread.

Infrastructure wise chinese have done good over the years but they also constructed excess even though it is not needed, which is haunting them in the form of debt.

 

[TrueSpirit]

Nobody here is living in denial or imitating pakistanis, we are discussing truths in this thread.

Infrastructure wise chinese have done good over the years but they also constructed excess even though it is not needed, which is haunting them in the form of debt.

Better to act & overdo it, rather than not act at all.

 

[Srinivas_K]

Better to act & overdo it, rather than not act at all.

Both are not good for a country.


A sustainable and steady growth based on domestic consumption is good for India.

1) India is already a consumption and service based economy.

2) India is about to implement manufacturing policy which will make India strong in exports as well

3) Infrastructure wise India is lagging but India is about to spend 1 Trillion dollars in the next few years only on infrastructure.

4) Most of the infrastructure will be concentrated on tier 2 cities as we do not need more and more crowded cities and pollution. The recent announcement of setting up of port facilities and building up of air ports in tier 2 cities signifies the development model of India.

5) India is in no hurry to build in a super fast mode for the sake of GDP growth or creating jobs, But we build when there is requirements that also gives good returns.

 

[TrueSpirit]

Both are not good for a country.


A sustainable and steady growth based on domestic consumption is good for India.

1) India is already a consumption and service based economy.

2) India is about to implement manufacturing policy which will make India strong in exports as well

3) Infrastructure wise India is lagging but India is about to spend 1 Trillion dollars in the next few years only on infrastructure.

4) Most of the infrastructure will be concentrated on tier 2 cities as we do not need more and more crowded cities and pollution. The recent announcement of setting up of port facilities and building up of air ports in tier 2 cities signifies the development model of India.

5) India is in no hurry to build in a super fast mode for the sake of GDP growth or creating jobs, But we build when there is requirements that also gives good returns.

Sure, like India was supposed to become self-reliant in defence sector by indigenization upto 70% by 2007. It is 2013 now & guess, where we are. We are worse-off, the indigenous component is less than 25% now (even worse than the stage we started from in 1992)

Better to take such grandiose statements from politicians & their cronies (babus) with a pinch of salt rather than buying it outright.

 

[Srinivas_K]

Sure, like India was supposed to become self-reliant in defence sector by indigenization upto 70% by 2007. It is 2013 now & guess, where we are. We are worse-off, the indigenous component is less than 25% now (even worse than the stage we started from in 1992)

Better to take such grandiose statements from politicians & their cronies (babus) with a pinch of salt rather than buying it outright.

Some targets are met some are not, I accept defence sector is failed so as China, this is one of the most difficult sectors to become self reliant with out joint collaboration, since most of the technologies are developed over a period of a century.

I am optimistic as Japan and South korea are supporting India in infra structure , we are also entering into FTA with ASEAN , with whom we have positive trade deficit.

Recently India has signed FTA with three central asian countries, Our trade with Africa will touch 100 billion by 2015.

 

[Singh]

@skumar461

Currently Realty, Infra etc. forms 50% of Chinese GDP. This is just crazy.

 

[Srinivas_K]

@skumar461

Currently Realty, Infra etc. forms 50% of Chinese GDP. This is just crazy.

And most of the capital is coming from shadow banking, And nobody knows how much capital is going in the form of credit and how much returns are coming out of it. So the estimates of GDP based on infra. is also not accurate.

What this has done is over crowding of chinese cities, pollution, increase in the wages.

For us we need a sustained development around tier 2 cities, so that the migrations will be less, less pollution and "low wages will remain for longer time than china".

It seems this is our business model which is perfected based on the lessons learned from Chinese experience.

 

[t_co]

And most of the capital is coming from shadow banking, And nobody knows how much capital is going in the form of credit and how much returns are coming out of it. So the estimates of GDP based on infra. is also not accurate.

What this has done is over crowding of chinese cities, pollution, increase in the wages.

For us we need a sustained development around tier 2 cities, so that the migrations will be less, less pollution and "low wages will remain for longer time than china".

It seems this is our business model which is perfected based on the lessons learned from Chinese experience.

India has a business model?

Also, you still haven't explained why you shaved 3%, as opposed to 1 or 5 or 10, in fact. You haven't justified your numbers at all

 

[rockdog]

On 2012, China's central government income is around 1.9 Trillion USD (Öйú2012Äê²ÆÕþÊÕÈëÔö³¤12.8%-ÐÂÎÅƵµÀ-ºÍѶÍø),
and the GDP from WordBank data is 8 Trillion (China Home)

So the Government Revenue/GDP = 25%; if as some Indian friend wish, the Data is 40% exaggerated, then which means China's 30-35% GDP will become central government revenue, that's illogical. By this kind of ratio, the economy won't grow anyway.

 

[TrueSpirit]

Some targets are met some are not, I accept defence sector is failed so as China, this is one of the most difficult sectors to become self reliant with out joint collaboration, since most of the technologies are developed over a period of a century.

I am optimistic as Japan and South korea are supporting India in infra structure , we are also entering into FTA with ASEAN , with whom we have positive trade deficit.

Recently India has signed FTA with three central asian countries, Our trade with Africa will touch 100 billion by 2015.

Well, all I can say is: All the very best.

India needs optimists like you who continue to hope against hope even in worst of times.

I sincerely hope that my cynical attitude is proven wrong by my countrymen.

 

[Armand2REP]

On 2012, China's central government income is around 1.9 Trillion USD (�й�2012��������������12.8%-����Ƶ��-��Ѷ��),
and the GDP from WordBank data is 8 Trillion (China Home)

So the Government Revenue/GDP = 25%; if as some Indian friend wish, the Data is 40% exaggerated, then which means China's 30-35% GDP will become central government revenue, that's illogical. By this kind of ratio, the economy won't grow anyway.

China's income comes from land sales between SOEs and intergovernment lending which gets double counted. Half of it is fake just like half of your GDP is a Ponzi scheme.

 

[Compersion]

No, Hong Kong is an independent economy. They are not included in Chinese GDP. Anything transported to Honghong is a part of exportation.



Don't get what you mean?

** The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the USD dollar.

[/QUOTE]

Hong Kong is a economy that the prc depends on for legitimacy. If you can research for me the amount of prc companies that are listed on the hang seng a intellectual would ask me why are they listed in Hong Kong and not shanghai. It's the same why are prc companies listed in USA like NYSE. Think about it. Use the analogy I placed earlier.

What does this mean. Prc has just placed Hong Kong is a situation as its currency is pegged to the usd. And why would that be a problem. Think about it. Also if china mobile is worth 1 billion today instead of 50 billion yesterday would that matter to you. It's getting valued in usd think about it. Before it was not.

Next I had a useful reference earlier from your compatriots about financial wizardry implemented in Nazi Germany, which saw the country being transformed from a basketcase in 1933 to Europe's strongest economy by 1938. I refer the post link: http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...g-us-s-hurting-all-us-badly-4.html#post761958

Not sure if its useful here and what is socialisim but please think about it. I have not made a judgement yet as I am still analysing but the prc statistics like electricity use are pointless because no one knows what's really going on there. The really statistics are in the banking systems and for obvious reason there will be no audit there. Also Yes there is rapid infrastructure and many social events that have heralded development for the prc citizens. But the west is going to ask prc to free up the exchange rate (if not Hong Kong will get focused on). This is where the prc holds some cards the yuan is pegged. Once it starts to free flow that's when the pandora box opens. Why is there resistance.

I'm open to your thoughts because I know the prc knows what's really going on. Also they won't allow the west and others to dictate to them what to do. But in this globalised world we live in I don't even know what's going to happen. My mind springs to Hong Kong because its in the middle and it ought to realiise how valuable and important it is to prc. Yuan money flow (some refer to recycling) happens significantly in Hong Kong - this helps in creation of yuan legitimacy (that is being printed freely) in international trade and management of trade balances with other nations as well as balance sheets of many prc companies. With reference to Indian economy we have given prc a lot of lessons on what not to do. Yes we play by the rules with the west but we question is it worth it. We look at you guys and think thats aint fair. The prc doesn't play by the rules yet its out there with a broad chest. Only giving by 60 rupees worth here. Open to debate.

 

[rockdog]

China's income comes from land sales between SOEs and inter government lending which gets double counted. Half of it is fake just like half of your GDP is a Ponzi scheme.

LOL, Chinese Central Government don't sell land, 78% income came from Tax of other economic activities, what i mentioned was just about central governent revenue. The land selling income just come to local government, it's even not included in 1.9Trillion income, just like state revenue of USA.

I think your knowledge about China's financial/Tax system is quite limited, but you still come to this post talking the things by your typical J-20 way...

 

[rockdog]

Double posted

 

[rockdog]

And most of the capital is coming from shadow banking, And nobody knows how much capital is going in the form of credit and how much returns are coming out of it. So the estimates of GDP based on infra. is also not accurate.

What this has done is over crowding of chinese cities, pollution, increase in the wages.

For us we need a sustained development around tier 2 cities, so that the migrations will be less, less pollution and "low wages will remain for longer time than china".

It seems this is our business model which is perfected based on the lessons learned from Chinese experience.

I have been Indian forum, especially China-discussion subjects for 8 yrs.
8 years ago, Indian talking about how soon India will catch up China.
6 years ago, Indian talking about how soon India's growth rate will catch up China.
Now, Indian talking about China's GDP is fake...
Isn't this quite an interesting "Loser's mindset"?

---------------------------

Talking about Chinese cities' over crowed, pollution, dirty, please check your own Indian's travel diary around China, from Indian forum,
Let see how soon India would catch up, and also check the comments there, at least they don't have the same "Loser's mindset" there.

Tier 2 city Chengdu:
A Trip to China---Chengdu - BCMTouring

Tier 2 city Chongqing:
China Travel ---from Chengdu to Chongqing - BCMTouring

Tier 3 city and province Henan
China Travel --- Henan (Shaolin Temple) - BCMTouring

Tier 4 city and province Yichang
China travel - from Chongqing to Yichang (Three Gorges Dam) - BCMTouring

Tier 1 city Beijing
Tourism of China --- Beijing - BCMTouring

Tier 1 city Shanghai
China Travel - China's largest city (Shanghai) - BCMTouring

Tier 3 city and province Yunnan
China's Yunnan province travel photos - BCMTouring

Please let me know your estimation how soon your cities and towns would catch up these?

 

[linking_park]

Fortune 500 Company by country.

No1. US 132
No.2 China 92
No......

No14. India 8

 

[hantangsongming]

Fortune 500 Company by country.

No1. US 132
No.2 China 92
No......

No14. India 8

hi, buddy, add the link for you

world largest companies in terms of revenues:
http: //money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2013/full_list/?iid=G500_sp_full