Chinese defence budget set to double by 2015 !!

Discussion in 'China' started by JAYRAM, Feb 14, 2012.

  1. JAYRAM

    JAYRAM 2 STRIKE CORPS Senior Member

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    By Carola Hoyos in London and Kathrin H

    China’s defence budget is expected to almost double by 2015 as Beijing accelerates its spending on fighter jets and other military equipment, according to defence forecasts.

    The country’s official military spending has increased at a double-digit rate for all but one of the past 23 years. This has raised concerns about its ambitions among its Asian neighbours and the US, especially because China’s official numbers are generally viewed as underplaying the full extent of its military spending. China is expected to unveil another double-digit increase when it releases its defence budget for 2012 in the coming weeks.

    Beijing has always justified increases by arguing they are in line with the pace of its economic growth.

    But in a forecast due to be released this week, analysts at IHS Jane’s Defence said they expected China’s defence spending to accelerate substantially in the next three years, testing the argument that the defence budget was linked to growth.

    IHS Jane’s analysts said they believe China will spend $120bn on defence this year and that will grow to $238bn in 2015 – a combined annual increase of 18.75 per cent and more than the joint total of Nato’s top eight members, bar the US. China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 9.2 per cent in 2011.

    Such an increase would see defence spending rise to 2.18 per cent of China’s gross domestic product by 2015, from 1.51 per cent in 2011, according to IHS Jane’s.

    Beijing puts its 2011 defence budget at $91.5bn. Like most analysts and the US defence department, IHS Jane’s believe official figures understate actual defence spending.

    Paul Burton, an IHS Jane’s analyst, said increased investment in several large Chinese equipment programmes, including the development of jet fighters such as the Chengdu J-10B, were helping to drive the anticipated increase in spending. “Rapid growth in this sector is supported by huge investments in resources,” he said.

    Beijing continues to improve its space capabilities, having launched the Shenzhou-8 unmanned spacecraft last November and docking it with the Tiangong-1 space laboratory, said Mr Burton.

    IHS Jane’s forecasts global military spending, using analysis of equipment programmes, economic growth, inflation, and official data to compile its results.

    When the pace of military spending growth rebounded to 12.7 per cent last year, Major General Peng Guangqian, a military analyst in Beijing, said a single-digit rate in 2010 had occurred in response to slower GDP growth in 2009, following the global economic crisis. The higher growth expected in 2011 reflected a return to faster GDP growth. “China’s military budget is co-ordinated with economic growth,” he said.

    Kerry Brown, head of the Asia programme at Chatham House, said the IHS Jane’s forecast appeared reasonable. “When you think of the reach China has got and the resources, it is not surprising. Why wouldn’t it desire to have such military kit?”

    Other analysts raised questions about whether China was ready to increase its spending on defence as aggressively as forecasts anticipated. “For quite a long time, their military expenditure has tracked the trend of economic growth. That appears to be a pretty consistent policy,” said Sam Perlo-Freeman, a military expenditure expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

    There is no doubt, however, that China’s increasing defence budget is fuelling growth in other Asian countries.

    Asia has more defence budgets that are growing faster than 8 per cent annually than any region in the world, including the rapidly expanding Middle East, said IHS Jane’s.

    Vietnam, which has turned to Russia for a string of military procurement packages, will see combined annual growth of almost 9 per cent in the coming years, boosting its defence budget to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2015.

    India is expecting to see growth of 6.14 per cent, having this month chosen France’s Rafale jet fighter as its preferred bidder for a $20bn contract of 126 jet fighters.

    China’s spending is beginning to close the gap with the US, which until recently had accounted for almost 50 per cent of the world’s defence spending. In the coming years, IHS Jane’s expects the US military budget to shrink, but remain three times as large as that of China in 2015.

    Chinese defence budget set to double by 2015 - FT.com
     
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  3. cir

    cir Senior Member Senior Member

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    9-10% real growth,7-8% GDP deflator, that's equal to annual nominal growth of 16-18% for years 2012-2015,thereby doubling the economy by 2015.

    This result does not take into account the high possibility of Chinese yuan gaining in value on the US dollar in the next 4 years。

    Even if the defence budget doubles by 2015,its share as a percentage of the GDP wiil remain where it started。

    In dollar terms,the defence budget should more than double by 2015.

    So what's the big deal?
     
  4. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    So internal security budget is also supposed to also double or quadruple compared to previous external defense budget ?
     
  5. satish007

    satish007 Senior Member Senior Member

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    so what can they get. nobody like and will sale them good goods. only thing they can do is buy more cars and bull rush at street.
     
  6. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Excellent news.

    They must spend more on their Defence.

    It is necessary that they do.

    The US is encircling them and so it is but a necessity.

    Poor chaps that they have to spend so much on arms, when they could have used it for their rural poor! After all, they claim that they are the only nation that cares for the poor and others waste money on defence!
     
  7. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    The economy would have to double for that to happen. It hasn't had any real growth since 2008 and is headed for recession.
     
  8. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    The US is putting the bogey of China is being encircled and the Chinese are spooking!

    A clever way to make China spend quick time on things that can be done steadily, so that economy is slowed down and cannot keep pace with the aspirations of the Chinese which has soared by the boom! Result: discontentment and that will lead to unrest.

    Brilliant US plan!
     
  9. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    US plan? It was brilliant Sarko plan to cause Euro debt crisis and bring Chinese exports to its knees.
     
  10. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Maybe; but that was murdering oneself to kill someone else.
     
  11. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    China spends more on internal security than on external defense.

    Who wants another Tiananmen ?
     
  12. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    If it is good enough for the goose, it is good enough for the Chicom.
     
  13. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    That doesn't leave much money for power projection. They are like Arab armies that worry about internal control and parades more than actually fighting a war. The PLA is so green, they can't even throw grenades.
     
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  14. pankaj nema

    pankaj nema Senior Member Senior Member

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    That is absolutely right

    This is what happens in dictatorships Govts get paranoid and insecure with even people talking
    on the streets in a group :lol:

    China has the highest number of policemen in the world some 8 million

    Chinese CCP is always insecure and paranoid that some or the internal rebellion is brewing

    And the frustrations of Chinese people in small towns are now frequently leading to violence
    which is quelled by force

    CCP and Chinese govt s are " tense " organisations
     
  15. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    it is expected as china defense budget also hold Pakistan defense budget.

    Begggers dont have money , now chini papa will feed
     
  16. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    They've got a pretty large black budget as it is (allegedly).
     
  17. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    All totalitarian regimes are afraid of instability.

    Human beings in general like to have their own space and control of their own destiny.

    In a totalitarian regime, it is curbed. While there are great social comforts made available in totalitarian regimes, yet the freedom of man being curbed does give rise to a subtle dissatisfaction, more so when they can observe others enjoying them.

    That is why totalitarian regimes ensure that there is no free flow of information within the country and between the outside world and the countrymen. Thus, the curbs on movement (Hukou) as also curbs on the internet.

    Nothing is acceptable that can foment instability.

    Hence, Tienanmen repeat would scare the living hell out of the CCP and the Communist Chinese Govt!
     
  18. Adux

    Adux Senior Member Senior Member

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    As we cannot and shouldnt compete with them monetary parity, it is important that we take advantage of our alliances. We should entertain Japan, South Korea, Australia and USA. We should exponentially increase our nuclear delivery capacity as well as the number of nukes we possess. For the time being, we should play what Pakistan is doing to us. The threat of complete annihilation of China should be our motive, if push comes to shove, and the threshold kept to the bare minimum possible.
     
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  19. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Annihilation may not be acceptable in today's context.

    Ideal would be to have them go back into the days of the Opium ecstasy, in the modern sense!

    There is already enough of discontent amongst the people along the peripheral areas of China!

    Ethnicity and religion are great force multipliers!

    The sham that all people of China are Hans should be exposed!
     
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  20. Adux

    Adux Senior Member Senior Member

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    Brigadier,

    Pakistan has this ideology down to the T.Two Front war by Pakistan-China is serious and we will loose. Mad Dog works.
    We should be the Mad Dog, for the next 20 years.
    It is important for us to lower the threshold, that they dont even contemplate a limited conventional two nation attack on India.
    We should have enough nukes and delivery system to send them both to the stone age together.
    It is a given fact, that in 40-50 years, we will surpass the Chinese economy, our Freedom and Democracy will paying off for us by such dividends by that time.
     
  21. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Two fronts is not a problem that cannot be accosted.

    That is what I think is the reality.

    In such a scenario, there will be other players (including those one may not state openly) who will ensure that the other two does not get an upper hand, and instead be slightly dented so that their cockiness is brought down a notch or two!
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2012

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