China's trade surplus for 2016 will be $600 billion

Discussion in 'China' started by Martian, Apr 14, 2016.

  1. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    It's easy to deduce China's annual trade surplus.

    Chinese New Year falls on a different day each year. Since many Chinese factories shut down for a month after Chinese New Year, you have to combine the Chinese trade surplus for February and March to eliminate the effect of Chinese New Year.

    As you can see in the graph below, China's trade surplus was $60 billion for Feb+Mar 2015. For 2016, China's trade surplus was also $60 billion for Feb+Mar. When you compare the trade surplus for January, it was $60 billion in 2015 and $63 billion in 2016.

    Thus, the Chinese trade surplus for January 2016 is 5% higher than in January 2015. For February and March, the trade surplus was the same.

    In conclusion, the Chinese trade surplus for 2016 will be at the same level as 2015 (which was $594 billion) or up to 5% higher.
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    In this one-year chart from Trading Economics, it shows the Chinese trade surplus for 2016.
    Jan: $63.3 billion
    Feb: $32.6 billion
    Mar: $29.9 billion
    China Balance of Trade | 1983-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast
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    In this January-to-January comparison chart from Trading Economics (click on the "1Y" button and "Column" under the bar graph icon), it shows a Jan. 2015 trade surplus of $60 billion. From the earlier chart, we know China's Jan. 2016 trade surplus was $63.3 billion.
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    In this five-year chart from Trading Economics (click on the "5Y" button and "Column" under the bar graph icon), we see that China's trade surplus was about $200 billion annually for the years 2011, 2012, and 2013. However, the oil price started falling in 2014 and China's trade surplus started climbing. By 2015, China's trade surplus was $594 billion for the year. If the oil price stays around $40 per barrel for this year, China's trade surplus should be about $600 billion.
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  3. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    In the one-year chart from Trading Economics, it shows the Chinese trade surplus for 2016.
    Jan: $63.3 billion
    Feb: $32.6 billion
    Mar: $29.9 billion

    The Winnipeg Free Press has reported on the Chinese trade surplus for April and May 2016.
    Apr: $45.6 billion
    May: $50 billion

    As I had previously mentioned, the dollar-volume of Chinese trade (ie. exports and imports) is not indicative of the actual volume of trade. Due to the sharp fall of commodity prices and the resultant related products (e.g. steel made from iron ore), the dollar volume of Chinese trade is misleading.

    In actuality, the container volume of Chinese trade has increased year-over-year.

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    http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/bu...racts-in-may-for-another-month-382188801.html

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    Last edited: Jun 8, 2016

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