China's container volume up 3.7% in 2015 | IHS

Discussion in 'China' started by Martian, Jan 24, 2016.

  1. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Is the Chinese economy slowing down? No.

    China's container volume increased by 3.7% in 2015.

    For 2015, China's container volume was 181 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs). To clarify, one TEU is towed by a semi-trailer truck.

    China's annual percentage increase in container volume has to decrease, because the base is much larger.
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    China port volume set for slowdown after 2015 growth | JOC.com

    "Figures released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange show the country’s 20 largest container ports handled just over 181 million 20-foot-equivalent units in 2015, representing growth of 3.7 percent over 2014."


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    Container port traffic (TEU: 20 foot equivalent units) | Data | Table


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    Last edited: Jan 24, 2016
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  3. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Let's compare Asia's two largest economies: China and Japan

    Container volume is a reliable economic indicator. For each TEU (ie. twenty-foot equivalent unit) container that is shipped from one port, there is a record of it arriving at its destination port. Thus, container volume data is corroborated.

    In the original post for this thread, the IHS citation showed Chinese container volume had increased by 3.7% for 2015.
    In the article below, IHS states Japanese container volume had decreased by 3.4% for 2015.

    The economic picture for 2015 is a rising China and a declining Japan.

    China: $11.4 trillion nominal GDP
    Japan: $4.1 trillion nominal GDP

    China: 181 million total TEU containers shipped/received
    Japan: less than 20 million total TEU containers shipped/received

    China: TEU container volume up 3.7%
    Japan: TEU container volume down 3.4%
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    Grim outlook for Japan container trade | JOC.com

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  4. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Is Asia's third-largest economy, India, lying about its economic growth?

    India is claiming a 7% economic growth. If you look at container volume growth, there is reason to believe India is lying.

    Indian container volume (see citation below) only grew 1.92%. In contrast, China's container volume grew by 3.7% for 2015.

    China only claims an economic growth of 6.9%. Also, China benefits from trade due to a massive $594 billion trade surplus.

    On the other hand, trade is a huge drag on India. India runs a trade deficit of $100 billion, which is 5% of Indian GDP.

    China's trade balance was about $400 billion last year (e.g. $594 billion merchandise trade surplus - $200 billion services deficit = $394 billion trade balance). $400 billion is about 4% of Chinese GDP. Thus, China's domestic economy only had to grow by 2.9%.

    Chinese domestic economic growth of 2.9% + 4% GDP boost from positive trade balance = 6.9% economic growth for China in 2015

    If you try to calculate the math for India, it doesn't make any sense.

    Indian putative domestic economic growth of 12% - 5% GDP drag from negative trade balance = 7% economic growth for India in 2015

    There is no way that you can convince me that India's putative domestic economic growth is 12%.

    If you eliminate trade from the Chinese economy, China is claiming it would only grow 2.9% organically. This is credible.
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    Weak global trade pulls down India container volumes | JOC.com

    "The collected data shows [India's] 12 major public ports cumulatively handled 4.76 million 20-foot-equivalent units from April to October, up 1.92 percent from 4.67 million TEUs a year earlier."

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  5. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    India is a service economy not a cheap goods exporter. Containers
    Are not a good measure


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  6. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Wrong! India is an agrarian economy with thw worlds largest arable land. Over 70% of population are engaged in agricultural sectors after 70 years of independence.

    - See more at: http://www.ibef.org/industry/agriculture-india.aspx#sthash.Fbdh0Kcd.dpuf

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    ~Tapa talks: Orange is the new black.~
     
  7. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    India's services exports are now very large. The services exports do not require containers.

    The services exports and cash inflows more than make up outgo of foreign exchange due to trade deficit.

    The GDP increase in india is mainly due to growth in services.
     
  8. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    @amoy, your post is plain wrong. 35% of Indian population is now classified as urban. Rural population does not completely depend on agriculture. That % has fallen to less than fifty.

    However contribution of agriculture to GDP has been falling for a long time, and is less than 25% now.
     
  9. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    India has considerable resilience in its economy being a truly diversified economy. The only weakness is in electronics manufacturing, where imports are causing concern to government. This situation may change for the better in future.
     
  10. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Ehhh? Show me the value of your services export.

    --
    In recent years, India has become one of the biggest refined product exporters in Asia with petroleum accounting for around 20 percent of total exports. The country also exports: engineering goods (19 percent of the total shipments), chemical and pharmaceutical products (14 percent), gems and jewellery (14 percent), agricultural and allied products (10 percent) and textiles and clothing (10 percent).

    ~Tapa talks: Orange is the new black.~
     
  11. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    2016 may witness considerable contraction in international trade which will affect China adversely.

    We expect China economy to stay at 2015 level at best this year.
     
  12. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    @amoy, petroleum products do not need containers to ship. This is by bulk carriers.

    You can find relevant figures on goi websites. Do this effort yourself.

    Gems and jewellery are high value items and are normally shipped by air.
     
  13. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    not about containers. do show me the ratio or value in export or GDp pertaining to the claim "india is a SERVICE economy".

    ~Tapa talks: Orange is the new black.~
     
  14. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Contrasting Chinese and Indian GDP growth

    GDP is defined as the value of all goods and services produced within a country.

    China's purely domestic GDP growth was about 2.9% for 2015. Due to international demand for Chinese goods, another 4% of Chinese GDP growth was attributed to the positive export trade balance of $400 billion.

    China's 6.9% GDP growth for 2015 is unremarkable. 2.9% purely Chinese GDP growth + 4% demand from overseas = 6.9% overall Chinese GDP growth for 2015
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    However, in India, the economic story is difficult to believe.

    Due to India's inability to produce electronics and semiconductors, India runs a large trade deficit with China. India's merchandise trade deficit subtracts about 5% of GDP growth from India (when you include the oil and gold imports).

    In the service sector, India's service trade surplus is a mere $8 billion per year (see citation below). This represents a positive contribution of 0.4% to India's $2 trillion nominal GDP. It's too insignificant to matter.

    After subtracting out the 5% drag from the merchandise trade deficit, India claims it is still growing at 7% annually! This is almost impossible. We know Chinese 2.9% organic economic growth derives from the installation of more Chinese industrial robots, machine tools, building more nuclear reactors, building more high-speed rail and subways, building massive dams, etc.

    How could India possibly grow 7%? India is not installing industrial robots or machine tools in any meaningful numbers. While China completes 23 nuclear reactors between 2015 to 2017, India is only completing one large nuclear reactor and three medium ones.

    I can't figure out where the 7% Indian growth is coming from. It sounds like bs to me.
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    For India’s trade, it is advantage agriculture | The Financial Express

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    Last edited: Jan 30, 2016
  15. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    That is 49%, not 70% as your link claims. Most of the output of Indian GDP comes from service sector.
     
  16. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    Indx TechStyle likes this.
  17. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    Last edited: Jan 30, 2016
  18. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    The breakup of Indian economy is 17% from agriculture, 26% from industry, and 57% from services.

    I think both industry and services are underreported. The underreporting could be 10% for industry and 25% for services. Example is good amount of construction and small scale industry does not reach official data. Similar small service providers in retail and other services below the tax net are hard to estimate by the government.

    The actual GDP of india may be higher than official estimates.
     
  19. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    There is confusion in services imports due to one simple reason, services are included with merchandise in project imports in government data. I think exim bank PDF provides an accurate picture.

    India also receives significant remittances from Indians abroad, which is greater than FDI. This has allowed forex reserves to increase despite trade deficit.
     
  20. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    Also, India is heading towards nonconventional sources for fulfilling it's energy requirements.
    Solar Power Output of India is multiplying by many folds in short intervals of time.
    India Reaches 4GW+ Installed Solar Capacity
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    India is about to eclipse Australia for installed solar capacity – and two states account for over half the country’s solar PV.

    According to figures released (PDF) by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, India had reached 4010.648MW of solar by early this month. Australia had 1,416,702 rooftop PV systems, representing 4242.794 MW of installed solar panel capacity as of May 2015; plus a handful of large scale systems.

    It won’t be long before India is looking at Australia’s tally in its rear view mirror.

    Last week, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi gave the nod for a massive increase India’s solar target under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM). The JNNSM target has been quintupled; from 20,000MW (20GW) to 100,000 MW (100GW) by 2022. The target will be split between 40 GW small scale and 60 GW medium and large scale projects.

    The new target could create an estimatedone million jobs or more according to analysis performed by Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) earlier this year.

    India’s ramp-up of solar has been impressive considering only 18 MW was installed by the end of 2010 – and the pace of installation will only increase.

    Two of India’s 29 states have already installed more than 1GW of solar – Rajasthan, with 1163.7MW and Gujarat with 1000.05MW.

    India is also using the JNNSM to foster local manufacturing under the “Make In India” program. It sets a target of 4-5GW of solar manufacturing capacity by 2020.

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party was swept to power in May 2014, partly based on clean-power generation being the administration’s top energy-related priority.

    India is attracting a huge amount of interest from solar developers around the world, including the world’s largest; SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE). The company is nurturing a significant pipeline of projects in the country; such as a 5GW deal with the state government of Karnataka signed early this year. In October last year, SunEdison signed an MoU with Rajasthan’s government to build 5GW of mega-scale (above 500MW in capacity) solar farms in the state.

    In February, SunEdison also announced a goal of delivering renewable electricity to 20 million people in underprivileged communities throughout the world by 2020; with millions in India to benefit.
     
  21. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    India has analysts of many hues and it is possible to read the same data in many ways. India does not have an authoritarian government which forces a single view onto its population.

    This thread is trying to paint a picture on flawed information. I can say authoritatively that Indian GDP figures are always lower than actual.
     
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