Discussion in 'China' started by W.G.Ewald, Feb 21, 2014.
Navy Official: China Training for 'Short Sharp War' with Japan | USNI News
If they really do so then it won't be a great sight for ASEAN. They might fear a similar attacks on their islands and might form a strategic allaince to counter china.
It would be most interesting a happening to happen in Asia.
The vast majority of Japanese, who are still anti nuclear and anti war will realise that unless Japan fortifies itself in all respect, to include a strong military and nuclearisation, Japan will become history.
Shintoism will take rebirth in a virulent way and that would not be in China's interest!
a "short sharp" war? does it mean a blitzkrieg?
how to make an amphibious operation onto such uninhabited rocks?
Makes as much sense as PLAAF dropping bombs on those uninhabited rocks, I would say.
Rock of Ages, cleft for me,
Let me hide myself in Thee;
Let the water and the blood,
From Thy wounded side which flowed,
Be of sin the double cure,
Safe from wrath and make me pure
There is no way of Amphibious assault over Japanese Positions ..Engaging to the JMSDF is equal to Suicide ..and the Chinese too know well this theory .
The only surprise attack being effective in the current stage is a Pearl Harbor Style attack that destroy Japanese navy at bay and air force even before it take off. However, given the location of those asset. It is not possible because this would turned into full blown war. US Pacific Fleet is going to destory Chinese navy and air force given power imbalance. Another approach might be even risky, is attacking the US pacific asset at the same surprise attack. That is also not possible given limited capability of Chinese navy and air force. China's plan is clear, establish some form of legitimacy and just sit and wait until the day that Chinese navy and Air Force able to match the prowess of USA Pacific fleets. That is when China are able to took back stolen territory.
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And dont forget the nukes.
I am 100% sure it is just show of force, nothing else.
Even US and USSR did not clash because each had nukes.
I dont want to see Japan again devastated in war. No War for Japan and Germany.
No political correctness either.
Now-a-days countries produce or buy war equipment to show others how strong I am, not to use practically.
Aksai Chin and Tibet and Inner Mongolia.
Were they stolen or robbed?
Sit back and wait till strong.
That is why the US is encircling China so that it cannot get strong enough to undertake forays with impunity.
On the issue of 'stolen', it can be argued that China has stolen most of the land beyond the real Han territory i.e. North of the Yangtse Kiang and Hwang Ho.
Why was Pearl Harbor attack success with the Imperial Japanese AF ..and why not It will success in the Modern day
Answer is Air Defence ..During the Invasion of Pearl Harbor there is Zero Number of Automatic AD weapons Such as Radar Guided AA Guns ..They are all destroyers and Don't have AD systems
At now Mordern ..Each and Every ship fitted with SAM and AAA ..even the Navy Base Fitted with Heavy AD systems to prevent Enemy Invasion
If you throw 10 squad of Heavy Fighter Bomber or your H-6 Bomber will Not survive against Japense AD systems and Aegis Destroyer's
So leave the Pearl Harbor style Attack
Again Attacking US pacific Fleet is some Positive Victory to Chinese If they Attack with Full force ..If you sink any Ship of the US navy ..you surely State of War With US ..the US quickly throw massive invasion from RoK ,Japan and Guam Bases ..If they Capture any one of the Harbour or sea Shore ..then you should face Heavy damage and Ready to get back vintage age
I'm sure China Knows this well ..and Did not try this suicide Trail
don't know if it will be short,but it will be sharp.
BTW Type-10 MBT vs Type-99 MBT..
My money's on Type-10
Unsubstantiated, alarmist, BS reports are coming across the Pacific almost every week now like clockwork.
Its like the Iraqi "WMDs" again.
Also early warning by radar was inadequate.
Much less was knowable about Iraq WMD than is evident about Chinese activity in the Pacific today.
This is, in Chinesei mind a replay of short quick action against India in 1962, which was highly successful and against Vietnam in 1979, which was partially successful. The Chinese are over confident. They begin with short skrimishes and then blame the other for starting them and then begin the full blown attack.
Japan cornered may ask for US help, which will not be forthcoming as US and China are commercial allies. Each is dependent on he other so much that they would posture but not fight a war to defend Japanese interest.
Then the only option left for Japan is to build a regional grouping. India could be a big partner in this venture but India's relations with US has hit a snag. Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh has been taken for a ride by US in last two years. They have offered strategic dialogue but that too for newspaper headlines that US and India are getting together to encircle China. US has no interest in that. They are too much dependent on Chinese surplus cash and a trillion dollar worth of low quality consumer products. It keeps US inflation under check. Hence US would never offer any worthwhile strategic dialogue with India. Instead crums here and crums there would be offered, which will keep India bottled up in Indian Ocean.
With the above India would not be able to cross Malacca Straits into South China Sea to be any help to Japan, Korea, Philipines and Vietnam. Weak Chinese navy will not cross into Indian Ocean if they are busy in South China Sea. Hence India rescuing any of the little nation old not be possible.
Recent arrest of Indian diplomat in New York and huge amount of conditions they are putting on India Pharmaceuticals, Indian Aviation to carry passengers to US and back etc. etc. are indications that US have given up on India. They in turn have decided to act tough.
All in all Indian policy of looking for financial and strategic help from US has to wait for Obama to go and Democrats soundly defeated in 2016 to begin all over again.
It is a sad state for Indian foreign policy but it is not India's doing. It was the US which offered collaboration with India when President Bush was in office. It is Obama Democrats, who almost undid everything which Man Mohan Singh had achieved with President Bush.
Pity! Pity! Pity!
Pentagon has downplayed reports of this short sharp war.
But on the other hand US & Japan have exercised to retake islands that have been seized by hostile forces.
I don't fully disagree with some of your comments but some parts of your analysis are too simplistic.
First off its not just the US that needs China's trillion dollar surplus.....the Chinese need a place to put their Trillion dollars surplus.
In simple words it means that the Chinese even after spending billions on huge infrastructure still need a safe place to park their money and a decent return for it.
Also the Chinese needed sub-prime US housing boom to stimulate demand for all the low-tech products like dishwashers, refrigerators, etc, etc.
So to make a long story short - The Chinese need the US market even more than the US needs China's money. If China does not make easy capital available by not lending money to the US....then a good portion of that trillion dollars worth of low-tech junk from cell-phone to dishwashers to TVs that the Chinaman makes is going to be parked permanently in Shanghai's ports.
My 2nd point - Which strategic mind in the US is going to fully depend on India to form any kind of strategic alliance ?
Indian leadership is weak, and India capacity to make major strategic decisions is very limited. India is a country run by a bunch of seventy year olds and not known for quick action or pragmatic vision.
The truth of the matter is neither the US nor India need each other very much. That may change if China becomes very aggressive in the South China sea with Japan or if it tries to grab Arunachal Pradesh.
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