China, India to be 1st & 3rd largest economies by 2050: Report

[SpArK]

China, India to be 1st & 3rd largest economies by 2050: Report​

China and India will be the largest and third-largest economies in the world by 2050, signalling a back to the pre-industrial revolution world order , with the US at number 2, conclude two influential reports from HSBC and PwC, respectively.

India could overtake Japan as early as 2011, and US by 2050 and China will be bigger than US by 2020, PwC calculates, using purchasing power parity (PPP) which adjusts for price differences across economies to forecast GDP growth.

India is projected to emerge as the fastest growing economy over this period according to PwC, given its younger demographic and lower base compared to China. 8165 usd billion, base 2000, pop1614 mn The conclusions may not seem startling, but both reports conclude that the pace of shift in global economic power from developed to emerging economies is picking up.

"In many ways this renewed dominance of China and India, with their much larger populations, is a return to the historical norm prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and 19th centuries that caused a shift in global economic power to Western Europe and the US – this temporary shift in power is now going into reverse," says the PwC report on the World in 2050. It's not just China and India, HSBC finds that 19 of the 30 largest economies will be today's emerging nations, and the emerging world will increase five times to be bigger than developed nations – the good news is that the next decade will see higher growth globally, at 3%, compared to 2% in the 2000s, says the HSBC report.

Beyond Brics, HSBC finds that Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt, Malaysia, Thailand, Colombia and Venezuela will enter the big league.

The US and UK, with better demographic outlooks, are relatively successful at maintaining their positions, says the report. "But the small-population, ageing, rich economies in Europe are the big losers.

Switzerland and the Netherlands slip down the grid significantly, and Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Norway and Denmark drop out of our Top 30 altogether," finds HSBC. PwC, however, finds almost all of Europe dropping down the value chain, including the UK which drops to the 10th rank in its analysis.

The EU as a region might just be able to maintain some level of global clout, but that's only if they stick together. India's share of global GDP is expected to rise to 13%, from its current share of just 2%, according to PwC analysis, and the E7 economies will be around 64% larger than the current G7 by then. There are caveats though. These economists project that the world will not really run out of resources, if there's continuing investment in low-carbon fuels, but there will be enormous pressures on food and water resources.

HSBC warns the biggest danger is that open borders that have delivered prosperity are closed, and says while the world has enjoyed a period of relative calm in the past, trade wars could lead to real wars. Bad political choices, and bad economic governance could easily upset the emerging market growth story.


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/china-india-to-be-1st--3rd-largest-economies-by-2050-report/articleshow/7260757.cms

 

[chex3009]

India will be 2nd biggest economy in 2050: PwC

LONDON: The Indian economy will register the second fastest growth between now and 2050 and emerge as the second biggest economy in the world by the middle of this century, according to a forecast by the consultancy group, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, released on Friday.

In terms of GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP), India is said to be on track to overtake Japan this year.
The author of the report, PWC's chief economist, John Hawksworth, speaking exclusively to TOI, said, ''India has the potential to be one of the three great economies of the 21st century, together with China and the US.''

But he warned it would require significant improvement in ''India's energy and transport infrastructure, less red tape, increased education levels in rural areas, particularly for women, and the continuation of the open attitude to trade and investment seen over the past 20 years''.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/India-will-be-2nd-biggest-economy-in-2050-PwC/articleshow/7239312.cms

 

[badguy2000]

did the news paper in 1911 anticipate that there would be two world war before 1950?


But i know that few guys could anticapted that Soviet would collapse in 1991 when Gorbachev came into power in 1985.

 

[Armand2REP]

These long term PPP forcasts are so retarded. They presume PPP remains constant. All one has to do is look at China to see it does not. To live the same lifestyle I enjoyed in France would cost about 20% less in China and that is quickly eroding. Inflation is out of control here. People are shopping in HK since it is cheaper than Guangzhou. lol

As far as India, just look at the inflation. The insane PPP they have is eroding faster than China. You might be able to live on the cheap in India, but it still costs the same to buy most things. You want to live a Western lifestyle, be ready to spend 70% of the cost in France.

 

[asianobserve]

HSBC: World's Biggest Economies by 2050

Posted by:
CNN.com business producer, Kevin Voigt


(CNN) – The global research department of HSBC has released a report predicting the rise and fall of the world's economies in the next 40 years.The world's top economy in 2050 will be China, followed by the United States. No surprises there – since China's reforms in the 1980s, economists have said it's not a question of if, but when, China's collective economic might will top the U.S.But among the smaller, developing nations, there are several surprises by HSBC prognosticators:

* By 2050, the Philippines will leapfrog 27 places to become the world's 16[SUP]th[/SUP] largest economy.

* Peru's economy, growing by 5.5% each year, jumping 20 places to 26[SUP]th[/SUP] place – ahead of Iran, Columbia and Switzerland. Other strong performers will be Egypt (up 15 places to 20th), Nigeria (up nine places to 37[SUP]th[/SUP]), Turkey (up six spots to 12[SUP]th[/SUP]), Malaysia (up 17 to 21[SUP]st[/SUP]) and the Ukraine (up 19 to 45[SUP]th[/SUP]).

* Japan's working population will contract by a world-top 37% in 2050 – yet HSBC economists predict it will still be toward the top performing economies, dropping only one spot to the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] largest economy. India will jump ahead of Japan to 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] on the list.

* The big loser in the next 40 years will be advanced economies in Europe, HSBC predicts, who will see their place in the economic pecking order erode as working population dwindles and developing economies climb. Only five European nations will be in the top 20, compared to eight today. Biggest drop will be felt northern Europe: Denmark to 56[SUP]th [/SUP]( -29), Norway to 48[SUP]th[/SUP] ( -22), Sweden to 38[SUP]th[/SUP] (-20) and Finland to 57[SUP]th[/SUP] (-19).

HSBC 2050 list of top economies (change in rank from 2010)

1) China (+2)
2) U.S. (-1)
3) India (+5)
4) Japan (-2)
5) Germany (-1)
6) UK (-1)
7) Brazil (+2)
8) Mexico (+5)
9) France (-3)
10) Canada (same)
11) Italy (-4)
12) Turkey (+6)
13) S. Korea (-2)
14) Spain (-2)
15) Russia (+2)
16) Philippines (+27)
17) Indonesia (+4)
18) Australia (-2)
19) Argentina (2)
20) Egypt (+15)
21) Malaysia (+17)
22) Saudi Arabia (+1)
23) Thailand (+6)
24) Netherlands (-9)
25) Poland (-1)
26) Peru (+20)
27) Iran (+7)
28) Colombia (+12
29) Switzerland (-9)
30) Pakistan (+14)

"If we step away from the cyclicality, there are two ways economies can grow; either add more people to the production line via growth in the working population, or make each individual more productive," the report says.

In other words, demographics – the size of your working population – along with the opportunities to flex that muscle help determine long-term economic trends. Big factors on the back half of that equation: Education opportunities, democratic governments or strong rule of law (a caveat that explains China and Saudi Arabia's high placement).

"We openly admit that behind these projections we assume governments build on their recent progress and remain solely focused on increasing the living standards for their populations," the report says. "Of course, this maybe an overly glossy way of viewing the world.

"Chief factors that may derail economies moving forward, the report says: War, energy consumption constraints, climate change, and growing barriers to population movement across borders.​

 

[Blackwater]

Philippines looks dangerously aggressive...pakistan still exists by 2050:shocked::shocked: i dont think so

 

[Payeng]

As I always say prediction can always go wrong.

 

[asianobserve]

@ Blackwater,

The Philippines is not dangerously aggressive, it is dangerously defensive. I am just perplexed at how it can overtake us, although admittedly the Philippines was Asia's second biggest economy after Japan immediately after WW2 until the late 1960's, Marcos rule ...

 

[trackwhack]

The Citibank report says India with 87 trillion USD GDP will be first with China's 80 trillion USD GDP second and US's 55 trillion USD economy third.

The bottom line is, it is impossible to predict the standing in 2050. But these three countries will have enough money to compete with each other.

 

[Iamanidiot]

these banks are big frauds we cannot even predict the next two quarters properly how can these guys predict 50 years in advance

 

[Param]

2050 predictions are jokes.
Banks and financial institutions making such predictions won't know how long even they'll last.

 

[Ray]

When it happens, we wil talk.

Building castles in the air goes an adage!

 

[badguy2000]

well, I do believe that CHina will be largest economy in the next 10 years.

 

[Ray]

well, I do believe that CHina will be largest economy in the next 10 years.

One has to wait and see.

The economy of the world is in a huge flux and it is changing by the day.

Therefore, all this is merely crystal-ball gazing.

 

[ace009]

I agree with Ray in this - I will believe something when I see it.

Check this out ...

Indian economy likely to grow between 7-7.5 pc in FY'12: Kaushik Basu - The Economic Times

Projections mean nothing - by 1990 projections, Indian economy should be worth $500 million and not even in the top 30 countries in 2010.

 

[RedDragon]

well, I do believe that CHina will be largest economy in the next 10 years.

I think it will be achieved at about 2030s or 2040s.

 

[badguy2000]

I think it will be achieved at about 2030s or 2040s.

2015-2020，大陆人均GDP破一万美元大关？

¹ú¼Ê¹Û²ì_ÌìÑÄÂÛ̳_ÌìÑÄÉçÇø

 

[Ray]

I think China has already achieved it!