China, India to be 1st & 3rd largest economies by 2050: Report

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by SpArK, Jan 12, 2011.

  1. SpArK

    SpArK SORCERER Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    2,093
    Likes Received:
    1,104
    Location:
    KINGDOM OF TRAVANCORE
    China, India to be 1st & 3rd largest economies by 2050: Report


    China and India will be the largest and third-largest economies in the world by 2050, signalling a back to the pre-industrial revolution world order , with the US at number 2, conclude two influential reports from HSBC and PwC, respectively.

    India could overtake Japan as early as 2011, and US by 2050 and China will be bigger than US by 2020, PwC calculates, using purchasing power parity (PPP) which adjusts for price differences across economies to forecast GDP growth.

    India is projected to emerge as the fastest growing economy over this period according to PwC, given its younger demographic and lower base compared to China. 8165 usd billion, base 2000, pop1614 mn The conclusions may not seem startling, but both reports conclude that the pace of shift in global economic power from developed to emerging economies is picking up.

    “In many ways this renewed dominance of China and India, with their much larger populations, is a return to the historical norm prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and 19th centuries that caused a shift in global economic power to Western Europe and the US – this temporary shift in power is now going into reverse,” says the PwC report on the World in 2050. It’s not just China and India, HSBC finds that 19 of the 30 largest economies will be today’s emerging nations, and the emerging world will increase five times to be bigger than developed nations – the good news is that the next decade will see higher growth globally, at 3%, compared to 2% in the 2000s, says the HSBC report.

    Beyond Brics, HSBC finds that Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt, Malaysia, Thailand, Colombia and Venezuela will enter the big league.

    The US and UK, with better demographic outlooks, are relatively successful at maintaining their positions, says the report. “But the small-population, ageing, rich economies in Europe are the big losers.

    Switzerland and the Netherlands slip down the grid significantly, and Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Norway and Denmark drop out of our Top 30 altogether,” finds HSBC. PwC, however, finds almost all of Europe dropping down the value chain, including the UK which drops to the 10th rank in its analysis.

    The EU as a region might just be able to maintain some level of global clout, but that’s only if they stick together. India’s share of global GDP is expected to rise to 13%, from its current share of just 2%, according to PwC analysis, and the E7 economies will be around 64% larger than the current G7 by then. There are caveats though. These economists project that the world will not really run out of resources, if there’s continuing investment in low-carbon fuels, but there will be enormous pressures on food and water resources.

    HSBC warns the biggest danger is that open borders that have delivered prosperity are closed, and says while the world has enjoyed a period of relative calm in the past, trade wars could lead to real wars. Bad political choices, and bad economic governance could easily upset the emerging market growth story.


    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/china-india-to-be-1st--3rd-largest-economies-by-2050-report/articleshow/7260757.cms
     
  2.  
  3. chex3009

    chex3009 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2010
    Messages:
    915
    Likes Received:
    161
    Location:
    IL
    India will be 2nd biggest economy in 2050: PwC

    LONDON: The Indian economy will register the second fastest growth between now and 2050 and emerge as the second biggest economy in the world by the middle of this century, according to a forecast by the consultancy group, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, released on Friday.

    In terms of GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP), India is said to be on track to overtake Japan this year.
    The author of the report, PWC's chief economist, John Hawksworth, speaking exclusively to TOI, said, ''India has the potential to be one of the three great economies of the 21st century, together with China and the US.''

    But he warned it would require significant improvement in ''India's energy and transport infrastructure, less red tape, increased education levels in rural areas, particularly for women, and the continuation of the open attitude to trade and investment seen over the past 20 years''.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/India-will-be-2nd-biggest-economy-in-2050-PwC/articleshow/7239312.cms
     
  4. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    4,957
    Likes Received:
    613
    did the news paper in 1911 anticipate that there would be two world war before 1950?


    But i know that few guys could anticapted that Soviet would collapse in 1991 when Gorbachev came into power in 1985.
     
    Payeng likes this.
  5. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    These long term PPP forcasts are so retarded. They presume PPP remains constant. All one has to do is look at China to see it does not. To live the same lifestyle I enjoyed in France would cost about 20% less in China and that is quickly eroding. Inflation is out of control here. People are shopping in HK since it is cheaper than Guangzhou. lol

    As far as India, just look at the inflation. The insane PPP they have is eroding faster than China. You might be able to live on the cheap in India, but it still costs the same to buy most things. You want to live a Western lifestyle, be ready to spend 70% of the cost in France.
     
    amoy likes this.
  6. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2011
    Messages:
    7,308
    Likes Received:
    2,976
    HSBC: World's Biggest Economies by 2050

    Posted by:
    CNN.com business producer, Kevin Voigt


    (CNN) –
    The global research department of HSBC has released a report predicting the rise and fall of the world’s economies in the next 40 years.
    The world’s top economy in 2050 will be China, followed by the United States. No surprises there – since China’s reforms in the 1980s, economists have said it’s not a question of if, but when, China’s collective economic might will top the U.S.But among the smaller, developing nations, there are several surprises by HSBC prognosticators:

    * By 2050, the Philippines will leapfrog 27 places to become the world’s 16[SUP]th[/SUP] largest economy.

    * Peru’s economy, growing by 5.5% each year, jumping 20 places to 26[SUP]th[/SUP] place – ahead of Iran, Columbia and Switzerland. Other strong performers will be Egypt (up 15 places to 20th), Nigeria (up nine places to 37[SUP]th[/SUP]), Turkey (up six spots to 12[SUP]th[/SUP]), Malaysia (up 17 to 21[SUP]st[/SUP]) and the Ukraine (up 19 to 45[SUP]th[/SUP]).

    *
    Japan’s working population will contract by a world-top 37% in 2050 – yet HSBC economists predict it will still be toward the top performing economies, dropping only one spot to the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] largest economy. India will jump ahead of Japan to 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] on the list.

    *
    The big loser in the next 40 years will be advanced economies in Europe, HSBC predicts, who will see their place in the economic pecking order erode as working population dwindles and developing economies climb. Only five European nations will be in the top 20, compared to eight today. Biggest drop will be felt northern Europe: Denmark to 56[SUP]th [/SUP]( -29), Norway to 48[SUP]th[/SUP] ( -22), Sweden to 38[SUP]th[/SUP] (-20) and Finland to 57[SUP]th[/SUP] (-19).

    HSBC 2050 list of top economies (change in rank from 2010)

    1)
    China (+2)
    2) U.S. (-1)
    3) India (+5)
    4) Japan (-2)
    5) Germany (-1)
    6) UK (-1)
    7) Brazil (+2)
    8) Mexico (+5)
    9) France (-3)
    10) Canada (same)
    11) Italy (-4)
    12) Turkey (+6)
    13) S. Korea (-2)
    14) Spain (-2)
    15) Russia (+2)
    16) Philippines (+27)
    17) Indonesia (+4)
    18) Australia (-2)
    19) Argentina (2)
    20) Egypt (+15)
    21) Malaysia (+17)
    22) Saudi Arabia (+1)
    23) Thailand (+6)
    24) Netherlands (-9)
    25) Poland (-1)
    26) Peru (+20)
    27) Iran (+7)
    28) Colombia (+12
    29) Switzerland (-9)
    30) Pakistan (+14)

    “If we step away from the cyclicality, there are two ways economies can grow; either add more people to the production line via growth in the working population, or make each individual more productive,” the report says.

    In other words, demographics – the size of your working population – along with the opportunities to flex that muscle help determine long-term economic trends. Big factors on the back half of that equation: Education opportunities, democratic governments or strong rule of law (a caveat that explains China and Saudi Arabia’s high placement).

    “We openly admit that behind these projections we assume governments build on their recent progress and remain solely focused on increasing the living standards for their populations,” the report says. “Of course, this maybe an overly glossy way of viewing the world.

    ”
    Chief factors that may derail economies moving forward, the report says: War, energy consumption constraints, climate change, and growing barriers to population movement across borders.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2012
    pmaitra likes this.
  7. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2012
    Messages:
    21,001
    Likes Received:
    11,842
    Location:
    Akhand Bharat
    Philippines looks dangerously aggressive...pakistan still exists by 2050:shocked::shocked: i dont think so
     
    ganesh177 and arunpat like this.
  8. Payeng

    Payeng Daku Mongol Singh

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2009
    Messages:
    2,521
    Likes Received:
    767
    Location:
    Neistan
    As I always say prediction can always go wrong.
     
  9. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2011
    Messages:
    7,308
    Likes Received:
    2,976
    @ Blackwater,

    The Philippines is not dangerously aggressive, it is dangerously defensive. I am just perplexed at how it can overtake us, although admittedly the Philippines was Asia's second biggest economy after Japan immediately after WW2 until the late 1960's, Marcos rule ...
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2012
  10. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2011
    Messages:
    3,757
    Likes Received:
    2,573
    The Citibank report says India with 87 trillion USD GDP will be first with China's 80 trillion USD GDP second and US's 55 trillion USD economy third.

    The bottom line is, it is impossible to predict the standing in 2050. But these three countries will have enough money to compete with each other.
     
  11. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2009
    Messages:
    5,326
    Likes Received:
    1,493
    these banks are big frauds we cannot even predict the next two quarters properly how can these guys predict 50 years in advance
     
    Armand2REP likes this.
  12. Param

    Param Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,808
    Likes Received:
    647
    Location:
    TN
    2050 predictions are jokes.
    Banks and financial institutions making such predictions won't know how long even they'll last.
     
    Armand2REP likes this.
  13. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,117
    Likes Received:
    23,545
    Location:
    Somewhere
    When it happens, we wil talk.

    Building castles in the air goes an adage!
     
    asianobserve likes this.
  14. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    4,957
    Likes Received:
    613
    well, I do believe that CHina will be largest economy in the next 10 years.
     
  15. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,117
    Likes Received:
    23,545
    Location:
    Somewhere
    One has to wait and see.

    The economy of the world is in a huge flux and it is changing by the day.

    Therefore, all this is merely crystal-ball gazing.
     
  16. ace009

    ace009 Freakin' Fighter fan Elite Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2010
    Messages:
    1,662
    Likes Received:
    513
    Location:
    New England, USA
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2012
  17. RedDragon

    RedDragon Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2011
    Messages:
    536
    Likes Received:
    69
    I think it will be achieved at about 2030s or 2040s.
     
  18. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    4,957
    Likes Received:
    613
    niceguy2011 likes this.
  19. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,117
    Likes Received:
    23,545
    Location:
    Somewhere
    I think China has already achieved it!
     

Share This Page