(contd)
Army of Bachelors
As mentioned earlier, if the reports are correct almost a million extra males are being added every year. So, the one-child policy is creating a continuing distortion in the sex ratio.
According to authors of the book, Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population, the vast army of surplus males could pose a threat to China's stability. In their analysis, low-status young adult men with little chance of having families of their own are "much more prone to attempt to improve their situation through violent and criminal behavior in a strategy of coalitional aggression." In China, unmarried men are called guang guan, or "bare branches" and are seen as "losers in societal competition."
The growing crime rate in China, which is often linked to the huge "floating" or transient population, some 80 million of which are low-status males, seems to add weight to their observation.
The imbalance will also aggravate the problem of an aging population in the future. In 2005, each retiree in China was supported by 10 workers. By 2020 this ratio would fall to one to six, and by 2050 to one to three. Such demographic changes have the potential of precipitating socio-economic crisis. The economic growth cannot be sustained with fewer people to work.
Girl Care Project
Worried by the consequences of the disturbed male/female ratio, the Chinese family planning authorities launched a "Girl Care Project". It aims to end pre natal sex selection and involves "attacking the criminal activities of drowning and abandoning baby girls [while] rewarding and assisting families that plan to give birth to baby girls," according to The People's Daily, mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party
While authorities view it as a way to foster more respect and concern for women and girls, critics say that it's being framed just to meet the future needs of men.
According to a top policy maker, China's birth control policy is now "a diversified mechanism" which allows for one-child in the cities, two in the rural areas, and three in ethnic regions, with no limit in Tibet.
Is State Control on Family Size Really Necessary?
There is little evidence to support the argument that State imposed limit on family size is the only way to quickly check the population growth. Kerala and China had similar fertility rates in 1979 when the one-child policy was introduced. Today, Kerala reports lower fertility rate than China. Besides, many other countries like Bangladesh have shown that it is possible to dramatically reduce fertility rates over a short period of time without forcing limit on family size. They achieved it by taking social and economic development to poor areas and expanding opportunities for women – these are proven way to reduce fertility rates.
Even in China, when the one-child policy was imposed there was already significant expansion of social and economic opportunities for women during the past decades. So, they were already tuned-in for smaller family size. The imposition of one-child norm mainly added distortions to sex ratio by encouraging abortions targeting female fetuses, although it did check the population growth rate.
An overlooked aspect of the one-child policy, which is positive, is the encouragement to late marriage and late childbirth. The minimum age of a woman to apply for child permit is 20. It gives a severe blow to the dominant proportion of population growth resulting from population momentum. In this aspect, India fares badly where almost fifty percent childbirths take place when the women are still below the legal age of 18. The importance of population momentum is highlighted in this article: Population of India: Need to Kill Population Momentum.
Enforcing a one-child policy may be possible in an authoritarian country like China but will have disastrous political consequences in any democracy societies, as it violates people's freedoms and individual rights. Thus, the only sensible approach is to follow the modern approach prescribed by the International Conference on Population and Development, ICPD (Cairo, 1994). It shifted the focus from "population control" to "population development." Development has proved to be the best contraceptive for any developing nation.
You may also like to explore: History and Politics of Population Phobia
A Lesson for China
Population Development: What Kerala can Teach India and China
Kerala,a tiny state of India, has achieved demographic transition solely based on human development. This is different from the economic development model prescribed in the West.
The Dark Side of One Child Policy of China