Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by Kunal Biswas, Mar 6, 2013.
Source : TRISHUL: The Honeymoon Is Over, Brace For Darker Days Ahead
Solutions, Cons and Pros .... ?
Thanks for thread now need a dictionary to understand all those economic terms
Mark my words, the rupee is going to be devalued by the government. Overnight, people's savings will take a huge hit just like they did in 1991 (when co-incidentally, MMS was FM). Because of financial mismanagement by the Congress both then and now, we are in the same mess.
This is what happens when votes are bought on a massive scale through gargantuan entitlement schemes.
EDIT: My advice to members is to invest in precious metals or foreign currency to hedge against such an outcome.
Good that you've come around to this point of view. Some months back you were arguing that the Congress under a Gandhi is the best possible thing to happen to India. I argued against that and told you that the Gandhis are parasites eating into the vitals of this nation. Under their direction the Congress has been bleeding India through gargantuan entitlement schemes, just to cement their vote bank and stay in power. You were vehemently arguing with me then that India has hope of progressing only if Congress takes over, and that too under a Gandhi.
Good that you've changed your point of view now.
Some times I wonder if these doomsday scenarios are for real?
When I go out of the house, the number Audis, BMWs Jags I see. The number of people wearing expensive watches, fine dining coming up all over. I wonder where the fvck is all that money coming from. Something is amiss. My business is down no doubt which is reflective on the downward slide of industries in India, wonder what's going on.
India has always has been a paradox and I think it will continue to be.
I think its all about sentiment at the end of the day. A two term govt in its last year with all kinds of scandals has taken its toll collectively. I think it will start to improve next year especially if the current dispensation goes.
There's no contradiction between what I said then and what I say now. Congress is still better than the alternative by far. A BJP majority government would probably spark pogroms against minorities all across the country and maybe civil war. A "Third Front" government would be totally inept and useless.
Problem is, India is caught between the Devil and the Deep Sea or worse. Congress is just the lesser of all evils, but still the best *possible* choice.
The wealth you see is all kala maal. Corruption has reached epidemic proportions and every Tariq, Dave and Hari seem to have a finger in some scam or another.
While the market is irrational and sentiment rules, globalization has ensured that every country has to compete for (limited) foreign capital so unless policymakers take steps which restore and reinvigorate investor confidence, the situation will not improve.
6 years of NDA didn't see "wide scale" pogroms across the country.
That's because BJP wasn't in a majority. Even then we saw the totally hands-off response of the central government toward the Gujarat riots. And the "mukhauta" of the BJP, aka Vajpayee, praising Modi for his handling of the situation.
Local small people buying those cars has nothing to do with the corruption at political level.
I think its all about getting confidence of the people, investors back. It will require some feel good policies at the least to kick start. Populism has to be thrown out.
You don't want me to get started on Congress and its role in riots do you?
Every political party has played games. What we have seen in the last few years is that people's aspirations have gone sky high and petty politicking may not help any more. There will have to be substance. People want development.
Hitler also delivered development. Development cannot be the be all and end all no matter the cost. First comes stability, then development.
The entire political agenda of the BJP is based on hate and quite frankly, I am consistently amazed by your support for that party. It's like being a black Republican or a Jewish Nazi.
See , I am from TN. I see no signs any poverty stress in TN here. Real estate is still strong. Labor shortage is acute. Daily wage earners are earning on an average close to Rs.500 per day , if they have any rudimentary skills in construction or carpentry.
Middle class is in a tight squeeze. But lower class is much much better off than they were before . The daily wage earning construction worker is riding the same bike that the engineer is riding to the site and having the same smart phone as that of the engineer around here.
Since it is a democracy , political class has assiduously taken care of the most vocal section of the populace with great care,since they are the main voting class in huge numbers.
Precious metals had already had a huge run up and are at dangerously high level. look how the silver is sputtering around 58000 per Kg. Now Gold too is showing signs of weakness.
I don't see any huge devaluation of rupee as long as Indian software sector brings in close to 100 billion annually. And crude has no way of gaining any higher price than this.
Whatever you and I may feel about the corruption and mismanagement of economy , UPA has carefully played it's economic cards well. They have destroyed the public finance , no doubt. UPA government's open market borrowing this year is close to 4.65 lakh crores. The figure for NDA regime is 46 thousand crore.
But the labor class on the street has no idea what this figure means. That's where these guys are shrewdly , cynically milking the cow till the blood oozes out. Only the future governments will bear this burdem. Not these UPA guys. Now they are ready to open the flood gates closer to the parliamentary elections with ADHAR cards.
A man like NAMO may bring in true corruption free fiscal prudent government that doesn't destroy the nations wealth like the UPA does.But UPA is hoping against hope that man on the street is won't notice that fact.
It's because I look beyond narrow prisms. I voted ABV in 98/99. I voted congress in 2009, I will vote BJP in 2014. I voted for Cong in 2009 coz Indian economy was doing well and thought it would be a good idea to have continuity.
Frankly, I am disappointed with BJP as an opposition party. My vote to BJP is completely depending on Modi being declared PM candidate or not. I don't consider others in BJP worthy of it and may be not vote for anybody at all and exercise the 0-0 option.
I was one of those who got sucked into the silver bandwagon and lost money. People were saying it will cross 1L in no time and I bought at 65k level.
The thing with gold is that it is evergreen investment. For today and tomorrow. Make jewelry for occasions etc.
@Known_Unknown - the Congress has been as bad in terms of communal riots and polarization. Since they've held the country longer, I would hold them responsible to an even greater degree. This is a big massive lie that Congress is "secular" and BJP is "communal". I realize that you don't have much idea of India - it is usually NRIs who are clueless about ground realities who make such statements. That is why you compare Yusuf to a "Jewish Nazi". Go and tell that to the all-Muslim locality who voted for Modi, or to the Muslims who were interviewed on the ground in Gujarat, who said that they would continue to vote for Modi because all they wanted was development.
People like you are still stuck in asinine phraseology like "communal", "secular", "pseudo-secular", and so on. Muslims on the ground want development and economic prosperity. After 2002 there have been no riots in Gujarat under Modi, but there has been a lot of inclusive development. Look at the number of communal riots and religious killings in places like UP and WB under the smug auspices of hypocrites like Mamata and Mulayam. The bottomline is that economic development is the only thing that matters. Nothing else matters. When economic development and prosperity increase, communal riots will decrease, religious fights will decrease. When economic development and progress comes to places like WB and UP, communal riots will decrease there too, but all the best in having economic development under people like Mamata and Mulayam.
If the rupee is not devalued, it may again lead to a balance of payments crises, just like in 1991. I'm no economist, but here are some recent articles in major newspapers all calling for devaluation to manage the crisis:
Confronting the crisis
Business Line : Opinion / Columns : Allow the rupee to depreciate
Funny that while we are at it, this comes up
Rupee likely to appreciate in the near-term: Experts
MUMBAI: Rupee is likely to appreciate in the near-term on the back of expected higher inflows into the country, according to treasury officials.
The movement of the domestic currency will depend on the mid-term monetary policy review scheduled in March by the Reserve Bank, they, however, added.
"Rupee should appreciate because the market is looking good with sound performance both in domestic and global equities, which will support inflows into the country," Head of Treasury, IDBI Bank, N S Venkatesh said.
He said the currency would take cue from the upcoming monetary policy review scheduled on March 19.
"If there is a rate cut, then it will support growth, which is a positive for the domestic currency," Venkatesh said, adding that high current account deficit (CAD) continued to remain a point of concern for the currency.
CAD, which had touched a record high of 5.4 per cent in the second quarter of current financial year, poses risk to the macro-economy and puts the Rupee at a vulnerable position due to its dependency on inflows from foreign institutional investors (FII).
Referring to short-term and medium-term outlook, Venkatesh said that the domestic currency was likely to touch 53 level per dollar in the short-term and 55 level in the medium-term.
Rupee had jumped 28 paise to settle at 54.28 per dollar on last Friday, making it the third straight day of appreciation for the Indian currency.
Another treasury official from a public sector bank said that rupee movement in the near-term would take direction from the policy announcement by the RBI.
"Rupee movement will depend on the policy announcement of RBI in its mid-term policy review. Any cut in the policy rates will strengthen rupee," the official said.
Referring to expenditure cut plan by the US government, the official said that any huge spending cuts would discourage exports, which would have impact on rupee.
He, however, maintained the inflows were likely to continue in the near-future.
Rupee likely to appreciate in the near-term: Experts - TOI Mobile | The Times of India Mobile Site
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