But the points that are overlooked on this issue
(1) Its not just about Israel, its the GCC bloc that is also wary of Iranian ambitions and that affects Indian policy calculations as well
(2) India does not support India developing Iranian nukes. It does support Iran's civil nuclear energy needs. Something that all NPT nations have access to and are being provided with including GCC countries.
(3) All intelligence including US and Israeli intelligence indicate that there is no active nuclear weapons program. The entire focus is on the enrichment program that "could" become a weapons program in the future. This has been the same rhetoric since the 90s.
(4) Iran has influence over groups like Hezbulah and Hamas that are problematic for Israel. Infact, it is well know that Hezbullah is the only Arab military force that force Israel to withdraw their armies twice after occupying southern Lebanon. Something that Iran and Hezbullah know gives them prestige in the Arab street. And something that is also disliked by the GCC bloc countries and seen as a potential force that can destablise their regimes.
(5) Israeli and US military officialis realise that airstrikes will only delay not destroy Iranian nuclear capability. And there is no chance of a full scale invasion happening. At the same time, while Israeli costs will be low, the US would bear the bulk of the Iranian backlash within Iraq and Afghanistan and the GCC countries in the Gulf.
From our perspective, we don't really have much leverage in either Israel or Iran to be honest. Russia and China have a much bigger role to play and that is why Israel would probably look towards Russia and China to do the sort of thing that the author is expecting Israel would ask India to do. IMO, Israel would only push for India to cut of ties with Iran. But of course, India will put ITS national interest, not Israeli national interests as first and foremost.
For India, a military conflict is certainly not in its interest given the state of the economy, CAR access and the loss of US focus on the AF-Pak region. It is in our interest that US moves away from the Iranian distraction and focuses on Pakistan with the same intensity. Iran is years if not decades away from a nuclear capability, while Pakistan actually has nuclear weapons. While Pakistan is not a threat to Israel, it is certainly a threat to India and the US much more than Iran is or ever could be. This is because of the continuing presence of AQ remnants and the fact that most of the transnational terrorist plots are coming from this region rather than from Iran.
In the current situation, India can only make these concerns clear to the US-Israel-GCC combine.
(1) India does not support Iranian nuclear weapons.
(2) We want focus on the Af-Pak region as a priority as this is the region which needs to be stabilized and is a REAL threat to international security
(3) Another military conflict in this region is a strict no and India will not be able to support it.
(4) That India will continue with its limited engagement with full adherence to the sanctions regime to maintain its Iranian contacts and build up on the CAR access region to bypass Pakistan.
The final decision will really depend on how Russia and China would see this issue. We can already see how Russia has taken a serious proative rule in the Syrian crisis with arms shipment and the like. And Syria does not even border Russia. Putin will be visiting ISrael soon and we will see what further implications will be of his visit in the coming months.
(1) Its not just about Israel, its the GCC bloc that is also wary of Iranian ambitions and that affects Indian policy calculations as well
(2) India does not support India developing Iranian nukes. It does support Iran's civil nuclear energy needs. Something that all NPT nations have access to and are being provided with including GCC countries.
(3) All intelligence including US and Israeli intelligence indicate that there is no active nuclear weapons program. The entire focus is on the enrichment program that "could" become a weapons program in the future. This has been the same rhetoric since the 90s.
(4) Iran has influence over groups like Hezbulah and Hamas that are problematic for Israel. Infact, it is well know that Hezbullah is the only Arab military force that force Israel to withdraw their armies twice after occupying southern Lebanon. Something that Iran and Hezbullah know gives them prestige in the Arab street. And something that is also disliked by the GCC bloc countries and seen as a potential force that can destablise their regimes.
(5) Israeli and US military officialis realise that airstrikes will only delay not destroy Iranian nuclear capability. And there is no chance of a full scale invasion happening. At the same time, while Israeli costs will be low, the US would bear the bulk of the Iranian backlash within Iraq and Afghanistan and the GCC countries in the Gulf.
From our perspective, we don't really have much leverage in either Israel or Iran to be honest. Russia and China have a much bigger role to play and that is why Israel would probably look towards Russia and China to do the sort of thing that the author is expecting Israel would ask India to do. IMO, Israel would only push for India to cut of ties with Iran. But of course, India will put ITS national interest, not Israeli national interests as first and foremost.
For India, a military conflict is certainly not in its interest given the state of the economy, CAR access and the loss of US focus on the AF-Pak region. It is in our interest that US moves away from the Iranian distraction and focuses on Pakistan with the same intensity. Iran is years if not decades away from a nuclear capability, while Pakistan actually has nuclear weapons. While Pakistan is not a threat to Israel, it is certainly a threat to India and the US much more than Iran is or ever could be. This is because of the continuing presence of AQ remnants and the fact that most of the transnational terrorist plots are coming from this region rather than from Iran.
In the current situation, India can only make these concerns clear to the US-Israel-GCC combine.
(1) India does not support Iranian nuclear weapons.
(2) We want focus on the Af-Pak region as a priority as this is the region which needs to be stabilized and is a REAL threat to international security
(3) Another military conflict in this region is a strict no and India will not be able to support it.
(4) That India will continue with its limited engagement with full adherence to the sanctions regime to maintain its Iranian contacts and build up on the CAR access region to bypass Pakistan.
The final decision will really depend on how Russia and China would see this issue. We can already see how Russia has taken a serious proative rule in the Syrian crisis with arms shipment and the like. And Syria does not even border Russia. Putin will be visiting ISrael soon and we will see what further implications will be of his visit in the coming months.
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