AMCA - Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (HAL)

[sthf]

Post cold war America leaped ahead of Russia .

Agreed but by how much and how does that concern India?

India is not facing US as an adversary, that is Russia and China's problem, not ours. F-22 is single handedly the best thing that flies and will remain so for the foreseeable future but that has no bearing on India's threat perception.

The primary flaw with "Russian junk" theory is that India has been using "Russian junk" since 1960s which ranges from good systems like T-55 and Mig-21 to superb ones like MKI. So either we are a nation of utter and complete fools or maybe just maybe we are not.

 

[TPFscopes]

If at that this stage we don't know how much Amca will cost in general (not specific) that simply means we are nowhere close to developing it.!!!

That is why I said further feasibility of AMCA project will be reviewed on after Stealth Test on 1:1 full scale model and than after you will also see the flow of more funds in AMCA project.

Perhaps they will get one by the end of year but it will still be required to fly with su57 prototype for 2 years before we can say with clarity as to how stealth it actually is.

by the way, As we already paid ~300 mn USDs and engaged with the projest, our panel along with 6 IAF pilots got accessed to PAKFA hot seat to judge its capability after that IAF asked 42 modification with the existing configuration. IAF already know the figures which are still confidential for others.

 

[IndianHawk]

The primary flaw with "Russian junk" theory is that India has been using "Russian junk" since 1960s which ranges from good systems like T-55 and Mig-21 to superb ones like MKI. So either we are a nation of utter and complete fools or maybe just maybe we are not.

Russian junk theory has came from CAG reports recently which have Stated the the numerous problem with mig29k. Delays in gorshkove case also demands for more and more money.

Maintainance problem of su30mki including denial of direct spare procurement from Russia. Delays in integration of bramhos from Russian side.

Dispute on work share on fgfa since 2007.

So I partially agree with you it is not as much fault of Russian equipment as the Russian attitude towards service , maintainance , utter disregard to delivery schedule.

And it's not just aircrafts. There missiles in our arsenal have very dismal record of performance with the exception of bramhos. Same thing for tanks. They don't even allow us to change the nut bolts.

Compare this to American p8i c-130, c17 all delivered either on time or even before!!!
Also there service records is excellent.

To be honest we really never had much options other than Russian hardware in the past. But now Russia needs to step up.

We must not buy anything from Russia untill it
1) improve su 30 availability above 70%
2) amend all the issues with mig29k.
3) sign contract with severe penalty if delivery is delayed even by a minute.
4) all permission to modify , upgrade , change must be pre-included.

 

[sthf]

@IndianHawk Again, you should put all of the things you mentioned in context. CAG don't care about context which is mostly a good thing but an individual should be able to interpret data.
Peacetime availability rate of different aircrafts are as follows:

Su-30 MKI - India (non OEM) - 55-75%
RAFALE - France (OEM) - 48.5%.
Typhoon - Germany (OEM) - 38%-67%.

Legacy Hornets are dropping like flies for the past 5 years.

So tell me how does the "Russian junk" factor is working out. You want highest levels of performance from a fighter (that costs less than half of its contemporary) but don't want to pay a premium of a service contract. Kinda unfair don't you think. HAL is doing a commendable job with MKI. Same applies for MIG-29K.

 

[sthf]

@IndianHawk As for Gorshkov, here is a quote from the then Navy chief Adm. Mehta, "I can't comment on the CAG. But you all are defence analysts; can you get me an aircraft carrier for less than $ 2 billion? If you can, I am going to sign a cheque right now,".

Arjun is indeed a superior machine to
T-90 but was more than a decade late. In case of T-72, AMX-40 was probably the best tank India was offered but it was far more expensive and India would have ended up the sole user, something which we now know would have definitely killed the inventory in the 90s as India went broke. T-55 was one of the finest, if not the finest tank of its generation.

 

[IndianHawk]

You want highest levels of performance from a fighter (that costs less than half of its contemporary) but don't want to pay a premium of a service contract. Kinda unfair don't you think.

Who says we haven't paid a premium for service. We have not seen those contracts in open have we. Russian have been selling us nuts and bolts at triple the price while denying any local procurement.

Same applies for MIG-29K.

The recent CAG report was very much in context. Everytime the mig29k lands back on carrier it needs repairing and becomes unavailable for a long time. With each plane same thing happens every single time. Simple truth is Russian failed to design it to the requirements of carrier operations and we paid for it.

Adm. Mehta, "I can't comment on the CAG. But you all are defence analysts; can you get me an aircraft carrier for less than $ 2 billion? If you can, I am going to sign a cheque right now,".

Again it was Russian who offered the carrier to us. It was Russian who were confident of price. It was Russian who decided the time frame for delivery.
And it was Russian who failed on every promise they made. So whose fault is that.

At the end of the day we paid almost double the price we agreed to pay initially. We got the carrier delivered horrendously late from the delivery time decided. And we paid for the development of mig29K which apparently isn't fit for carrier operation.

Maybe it was all coincidence. Maybe Russian were doing the right thing but were simply sheerly incompetent.

But when you look at whole picture in rear view I can't help but feeling we were duped.

The lesson is we can't believe Russian prices and timeline anymore.

So when they say fgfa development will cost 5-6 billion$ it sounds more like 13-14 billion $ to me .

When they say it will be delivered in 2022 to me it sounds like 2027-28.

Maybe I'm just an idiot. But that is how I see it.

 

[TPFscopes]

when they say fgfa development will cost 5-6 billion$ it sounds more like 13-14 billion $ to me .

It is not a right way to predict anything.
lets take an example as KAVERI GTX project.
Full-scale development was authorized in April 1989 in what was then expected to be a 93-month programme projected to cost ₹3.82 billion (US$59.6 million) in ideal conditions with no hiccups caused during development but in actual they find many difficulties during development with a whopping cost of more than 2.78 billion USD already spent and more on its way.

For FGFA, In 2009 they (Russia) expect about 4 billion USD of total development cost but now they have the total of 7.2 billion USD. and will be raised to almost 9 billion USD till the end of the development.

When they say it will be delivered in 2022 to me it sounds like 2027-28.

As per Indian authorities , we want FGFA with AL-41F, so for Indian side the project development is almost complete and ready ( only IAF recommended modifications are remaining)
hence we hope our first prototype delivery by end of 2020 or early 2021, if deal will be inked within this year.
rest is all depend on indian side.

 

[airtel]

As per Indian authorities , we want FGFA with AL-41F.

What about izdeliye 30 ? we dont want that ?

 

[TPFscopes]

What about izdeliye 30 ? we dont want that ?

Just like Russian style, Indian panel also opt Al-41F to cut the delays and later we may retrofit item-30 if it proves its value.

 

[sthf]

@IndianHawk Had there been a service contract for Mig-29K someone would have screamed at the top of their lungs. Rest is speculation on your part and mine.

CAG didn't whipped Russians, it whipped Navy for inducting Mig-29K without due process. In a country where former PM had to resign because of allegations of corruption and former Chief of Air Staff is soon going to jail for blatant corruption, how long do you think India gets to play the victim card?

As for Adm. Gorshkov, so what if Russians offered if first. How is that relevant to the fact that despite the cost overruns India got a decent carrier for a reasonable price. Something no one else offered for the same price. Now put Vikrant class through the same standards about cost overruns and you will get your answer.

 

[IndianHawk]

CAG didn't whipped Russians, it whipped Navy for inducting Mig-29K without due process. In a country where former PM had to resign because of allegations of corruption and former Chief of Air Staff is soon going to jail for blatant corruption, how long do you think India gets to play the victim card?

It's not about playing victims.its about understanding the faults both in our process and approach and in Russian sales pitch. That's the point I'm making we need to scrutinize Russian deals like Hawks .
Draw ironclad contracts and force the Russian to deliver what they promise exactly. I'm sure there would have been corruption in American deals too yet they reached India on time. Something to think.

As for Adm. Gorshkov, so what if Russians offered if first. How is that relevant to the fact that despite the cost overruns India got a decent carrier for a reasonable price.

First thing Russian made us to invest in mig29k from scratch. And it's the only bird which can fly from gorshkove .(since NLCA is out) so we paid much more and will keep paying for next 20 years. So the reasonable price is pretty much a debatable term here.
Here Again important is not what Russian did but how we got trapped into this??
We shouldn't have mixed the deals. We should have only brought the carrier with enlarged lift and then must have gone for bird separately.

In any case Russian overpromised and underdelivered with delays. That is the lesson we need to learn. That is what Russian do. We need to be alarmed here.

Now put Vikrant class through the same standards about cost overruns and you will get your answer.

Nope both are not comparable. Indegenious development project build indegenious capacity . Hence delays and cost overrun are tolerable.

Delays and cost overrun in something being built in Russia by Russian expertise gives us no such advantage. It is simply a waste of both time and money on our part.

We don't learn a thing when Russian built gorshkove , with vikrant we learned everything.

 

[Kchontha]

As per Indian authorities , we want FGFA with AL-41F, so for Indian side the project development is almost complete and ready ( only IAF recommended modifications are remaining)
hence we hope our first prototype delivery by end of 2020 or early 2021, if deal will be inked within this year.
rest is all depend on indian side.

Without item 30 fgfa will be just like su 35 in T50 Pakfa/su57 coat.

 

[Armand2REP]

@IndianHawk Again, you should put all of the things you mentioned in context. CAG don't care about context which is mostly a good thing but an individual should be able to interpret data.
Peacetime availability rate of different aircrafts are as follows:

Su-30 MKI - India (non OEM) - 55-75%
RAFALE - France (OEM) - 48.5%.
Typhoon - Germany (OEM) - 38%-67%.

Legacy Hornets are dropping like flies for the past 5 years.

So tell me how does the "Russian junk" factor is working out. You want highest levels of performance from a fighter (that costs less than half of its contemporary) but don't want to pay a premium of a service contract. Kinda unfair don't you think. HAL is doing a commendable job with MKI. Same applies for MIG-29K.

The Rafale availability report was a hit job. The 40 aircraft of the Marine Nationale are put in storage while its carrier is in refit. The average availability is 75% which is why the contract guarantees 75%.

 

[smestarz]

Good move, at least then we would be moving,

Why does IAF not show such wisdom for Tejas, they start to use it now and then later can ask for more updates.
Asking for updates even when not using it in quantity, is just asking too much, and that is what IAF top brass is about. I think that Indian govt should also encourage perhaps Indian army to develop its own air force with INDIAN FIGHTER PLANES (hence Tejas and AMCA etc)

Just like Russian style, Indian panel also opt Al-41F to cut the delays and later we may retrofit item-30 if it proves its value.

 

[smestarz]

Even in one of your Senate reports the availability rate of Rafale was 55%,
http://defenceupdate.in/rafales-serviceability-rate-is-48-5-compared-with-su-30-mkis-60/

The serviceability rate of the Dassault Rafale fighter jet in service with the French Air Force is 48.5%, according to information given to a French lawmaker by the government.

The serviceability rate or the availability rate is the number of aircraft ready for missions at any given time. In the case of the French Air Force’s Rafale jets, nearly half of the fleet is on the ground undergoing repairs or maintenance, Jane’s reported on 24 November 2016.

So you mean to say your govt lies to the senate??

The Rafale availability report was a hit job. The 40 aircraft of the Marine Nationale are put in storage while its carrier is in refit. The average availability is 75% which is why the contract guarantees 75%.

 

[smestarz]

I guess the govt better get refund from Dassault as the availability rate is far lower than guaranteed

The Rafale availability report was a hit job. The 40 aircraft of the Marine Nationale are put in storage while its carrier is in refit. The average availability is 75% which is why the contract guarantees 75%.

 

[sthf]

The Rafale availability report was a hit job. The 40 aircraft of the Marine Nationale are put in storage while its carrier is in refit. The average availability is 75% which is why the contract guarantees 75%.

Contract guarantees 75% because Rafale is well capable of 75%. This doesn't take away the fact that French Rafales have a 48.5% serviceability rate.

If you have evidence to the contrary, I am open to correction.

Had Typhoon won the bid, Eurofighter too would have offered something similar. Yet, Germany's inventory is in a messed up condition.

 

[Armand2REP]

I guess the govt better get refund from Dassault as the availability rate is far lower than guaranteed

Nah, when Rafale was flying thousands of hours over Libya it had close to 100% availability. 75% is easy to maintain when you are not trying to save hours on your air frames and use up the M2000s first.

 

[sthf]

Draw ironclad contracts and force the Russian to deliver what they promise exactly

Agreed.

First thing Russian made us to invest in mig29k from scratch.

Nobody made us do any thing as it insinuates that we got arm twisted. We need to own up to our faults and Russia needs to own up to its. One sided diatribe is helping no one.

Hence delays and cost overrun are tolerable.

Yes, but to what extent? What is the criteria? It's a bag of whole lot of subjective arguments mixed with emotions. Time waits for none, neither does your enemy.

 

[Kchontha]

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