Alternatives to Dassault Rafale

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by Pulkit, Jun 27, 2014.

  1. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

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    Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    Cancelling rafale deal an year back I would not have favoured even even today I doubt my decision to say... "Lets Scrap it"...
    I know its not easy but sounds right....

    20 billion+ paid for Rafale will have a great impact on our other deals...

    All the deals in pipeline are not getting cleared due to Rafale deal...
    Original deal was a better option , by the time we sign or finalise the deal the costs will ramp up and then in next 10 years upgradation of these aircrafts will be required.
    By that time we will have FGFA ,AMCA in sight and Tejas MK2 in production then it will not be fair to invest on them to be upgraded...
    We all know they will charge alot...
    I know we are at tight spot as of now....
    But If we induct 100+ tejas MK1 FOC standard and raise sukhoi fleet ... and MIGs serving till 2018 and by 2018 Get tejas MK2 then we will have enough fire power till 2025....
    Correct time for AMCA FGFA to be introduced...
     
    ersakthivel, shotgun and dealwithit like this.
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  3. dealwithit

    dealwithit Regular Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    Bro ...............

    If we have that much power ... to scrap a national deal ...........by a forum

    Its beyond imagination
     
  4. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    Sir ...
    Just a thought it is... donno its good or bad....
    Scrapping a national deal from a forum isnt impossible...

    who knows what impact it can have..


    lol... just kidding....
     
  5. laughingbuddha

    laughingbuddha Regular Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    Let's just wait to see what OFFICIALLY happens with the deal and then try to analyse.
    Frankly, I see it going through. This govt is serious about national security and very bullish about the economy. They have decided upon a strong and confident India with a buoyant economy. $20 billion is a sound investment in their scheme of things.
    Remember what Jaitley said: 2.5 or 3â„… of GDP to defence is irrelevant. Lump sum as per requirement of the day is more important. GDP â„… will keep on changing as economy grows ( not verbatim)
     
  6. debasree

    debasree Regular Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    it will b suicidal...iaf so short of basic aircraft
     
  7. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    Yes GDP % doesnt matter much as if the GDP grows fater theneven a small change in % will have a greater impact...
    20 billion is not a sound investment when are growth rate in down and fiscal debts are high....

     
  8. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    IAF even then will be short of aircrafts till 2018 or even worse......
    suicidal is just counting on rafale and declining all other possible solutions....
    They say Rafale deal is at hold due to money then due to HAL...
    This lead to inc in cost by 150% atleast ....
    In good senses one knows that by 2022 only we will have a decent number of rafale with us...
    Faster induction of Tejas with a marginal dec in Rafale order would have added strength to IAF...

    All know that 1 Rafale = 3 Tejas .... so by dec one squad of Rafale we could have 3 Squad of Tejas that too parallely along with retiring MIGs our numbers would hve been better...
     
  9. laughingbuddha

    laughingbuddha Regular Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    1 John Rambo = 100s of baddies ;)
     
  10. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    haha haha nice example....
    but seriously is rafale that good?
    look at todays Indian IAF fleet,Status of FGFA,AMCA Tejas MK2 and tell me what will be better...

     
  11. laughingbuddha

    laughingbuddha Regular Member

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  12. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

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  13. debasree

    debasree Regular Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    u cant compare 3 mule with i hose..:) its not same
     
  14. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    Thats sad....
    Tejas 3 can give a good fight to 1 Rafale....
    till 2018 you are not going to have either Rafale or Tejas MK2..
    We wanna maintain a fleet of 12squad of MIGs...
    You can upgrade A/C for 43 Mil ...
    But you cannot induct a good aircraft for a cheaper price ie mk1...
    the order will be complete by 2016
    another 30 odd aircrafts could have been added in the mean while in addition to the original order which would have definately provided added strength as it would have made retiring of migs easy....
     
  15. cloud

    cloud Regular Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    I think the deal will go through. Since the Tejas MK2 will not be available for serial production until 2020 in numbers, same for PAK-FA (both of these can easily be even more delayed). Till that time we would have already paid 60-80% of the total amt for Rafale deal. Also by 2020 our economy as well as IAF budget should ideally be little less than twice of current amount. So the remaining payment for Rafale shouldn't be an issue by that time, even if IAF places a large order for other available aircrafts that time. Also till that time we should ideally have Good number of new fleets for transporter(newly acquired C17, C130 etc.) and helos for IAF. So their wouldn't be any other big ticket items on IAF purchases list and they can manage the Tejas-MK2 cost and FGFA cost when they are ready for final induction.
     
  16. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    One small question to add to it....
    Our migs are to be retired by 2018-19 or if we even extend say 2020...
    13 squads of them...
    we are induction only 2 quad of tejas by then 40 odd number +apart for 18 Rafale delivered directly no other aircraft would have been inducted +few more sukhoi...
    How are you planning to fill that gap?

     
  17. cloud

    cloud Regular Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    I have no much idea, but I was rather stating from the finance point of view. We can cancel the Rafale deal now, but that will not help much in faster induction of MK2 and FGFAs as I don't see any problem with the funding of MK2 and for any delays in FOC for MK2 and thus less capability, only DRDO will be responsible, whether we like the IAF's approach or not for imports.

    If you suggesting for more number of MK1 and a later upgrade to MK2 instead of Rafale. It will also not help much anyway. Even if we try a faster induction of MK1 we would hardly be making 80-100 MK1 instead of 40 by that time. So by 2020 we will only add around 40-60 extra MK1 for 18 Rafale. Also we probably should have 1 or more squadrons of license built Rafale in India by that time if the deal is signed this year. In that case we will be adding more rafale than MK1 in numbers.

    For the new ACs we are getting, 3 squadron of MKis(1 more squadron may also be added if FGFA gets delayed more), 1 of Rafale(Plus any extra numbers which are built in India), and 2 of Tejas by that time. So we will be adding almost 130+ aircrafts + Mig29s for Viki. So the capability wise its Ok I guess.

    I think Rafale looks costly today, but in future lets say around 2035 our MKis will be quite old. Tejas will have short legs and less payload. Then what Aircrafts we will have in inventory? Tejas and FGFA only. Rafale(with less RCS and stealth weapon pods) will be an ideal replacement for MKIs for long range missions along with 5th Gen fighters especially along the Coastal areas, where currently MKIs are guarding the sea now. Maybe that is what is in the mind of IAF. And UAVs will not replace the role of Medium and Heavy fighters for some time for country like India.
     
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2014
  18. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    I am understanding your point of view but even if I go financial its not that easy .... By that time other as of now upgraded aircrafts will be demanding replacement... Jag and mirage

    If we cancel rafale deal we will have suffient amount to support MK2 FGFA and AMCA why do you think all these projects are at stand still...
    Why IAF took a u turn on FGFA....And why IAF has been delaying MK1...
    let assume Rafale is ok 100000 Crore our budget is 40 Billion in 10 years payment then also by the time we need to induct FGFA and AMCA we will be paying these dues....
    What do think will be the upgradadtion cost of Rafale.. ?and its operational cost ... apart from the standard deal cost there will be other costs aswell.......
    Even if we dont scrap it as we need it we can surely reduce the numbers....
    lets say on induction point of view...
    Rafale: 18 till 2018 and say 18 more till 2020 made in India....
    Tejas MK1 +MK2 :8+16*5=98(If the production doesnot increase or another assembly line is not set up which is a possibility once MK2 gets FOC in 2018)
    Sukhoi:1 squad more.21...
    then also our requirements are not met.....


    our requirement is today 250 new aircrafts by 2022....


    in teh light of FGFA and AMCA and Tejas MK2 Rafale will not be that important unless all these plans get delayed by say 10 years...
    so in short instead of 6 squad of Rafale we can go for 3-4 squad .

     
  19. cloud

    cloud Regular Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    Forget about AMCA for atleast next 15 years and 20 years for serial production(for induction, It may come in prototype version quite early).

    For MK2 when its inducted, we will have money even to place an order for 200 nos if desired by IAF. No issue with that. Same for FGFA.

    I'm not sure on the part of Delaying IOC for MK1(even if they did delay for 5-6 months for the funds, its shouldn't be an issue) MK2 is coming after 2020(very late), may be its the DRDO as usual.

    For the last Para, they(Tejas and AMCA) will always be important as we will not be inducting the 5th gen fighters in big numbers(FGFA - may be max 300 nos, AMCA forget about it for next 20 years to get them in numbers). So a compromise has to be made. We are still using the 40 years old ACs and that will not change in future. We can always do some upgrades and use them for some other purpose. Something like stealth ACs won't be able to use the long range Missiles(in inside bays, using them outside will negate the stealth). So for a maritime strike mission loaded with long ranges Anti ship missiles or cruse missiles it doesn't matter much if the aircraft is stealthy or not. In those roles Rafale should fit better in future for being cheap on maintenance and with long legs. Same will be true if at all we decide to some heavy bombing inside Chini border. :p
     
  20. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    300 FGFA will be sufficient but today only its 25billions project who knows what will be the end cost investment and what will we gain out of it...?
    Rafale is a multirole say 126 40%available all time is a very small number...that too relying on foreign institution...(Sanctions)
    If we have good number of tejas by 2022 then we will be in better position...
     
  21. cloud

    cloud Regular Member

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    Re: Scrapping Rafale Deal Now Good Or Bad...

    Yes, for AMCA we can wait for next 20 years(first squadron). 15 years would be the time when probably its gets to IOC standard. Engine issue probably still be there.

    Who says Tejas is sanction proof. One fine day Unkil decides and turn off the engine supply. There will no Tejas flying for next 5 years, Even if we try and get another engine. Don't be too hopeful of our kaveri engine in its current status. Anyway including Tejas in large numbers might give advantage in this decade, but not in future, where Rafale will be more useful and IAF will be inducting the Tejas in large number anyway though bit late. I'm not discounting the Importance of Tajas and inducting them in large numbers, But I was saying the Maybe IAF has the plan in mind to get Rafales now and pay for it untill MK2/FGFA is available and then Get them. AMCA/AURA will come much after that and by that time they would have already paid for MK2 and FGFAs(most of it anyway). They will have their share of Budget and they will get the money from their budget. For ACC and subs navy will have to pay from their budget.

    As I said we can get the 100 MK1 by 2020, but newly added Rafale will have better future and IAF will get the Tejas in big number anyway after 2020. So only extra advantage(of Tejas) will be for next a few years. But Rafale will present bigger threat to China for next 2 decades. Also I really doubt your 40% availability claim. We are getting the sufficient TOTs, So if any issue with the availability, HAL should be responsible in most of the cases.

    May be IAF wants to spend as much as it can from its budget, does not want the money to shift to Navy etc. If IAF doesn't order Rafale, the budget for Mk1 will hardly be 2-3 Billions $ for next a few years. So govt may divert the IAF's money to Navy/IA. :)
     

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