A nuclear armed Japan may be around the corner

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by ajtr, Oct 9, 2010.

  1. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    A nuclear armed Japan may be around the corner

    By Wayne Madsen
    Online Journal Contributing Writer
    Oct 8, 2010, 00:16

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    (WMR) -- Frayed relations with China and Russia, the ever-present threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons, and a re-examination of the 1960 U.S.-Japan security treaty, formally known as the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, has some in the Japanese government and military considering what would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, Japan entering the club of nations possessing nuclear weapons.

    Since Japan was the only nation to have suffered from the wartime use of nuclear weapons -- the dropping of U.S. atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, in August 1945, there is a strong anti-nuclear feeling among the Japanese people. But it noteworthy that Japan had two nascent programs to build an atomic bomb during World War II -- the Army’s Ni-Go project and the Navy’s F-Go program. In the 1960s, the Lyndon Johnson administration pressured the Eisaku Sato government to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty amid fears that Sato was pushing for a Japanese nuclear weapons capability to counter that of China.

    The security treaty provided for the United States to come to the aid of Japan to defend against an armed attack on those territories under Japanese administration. However, WMR has learned from informed Japanese sources that a classified annex to the treaty does not provide for the United States to commit to the defense of two disputed territories: the Senkaku islands, which are claimed by China (which calls them the Diaoyu Islands) and have been the basis for recent naval incidents between Japan and China, and four islands in the southern Kuril Islands chain that were occupied by the Soviet Union in the final days of World War II and which are still occupied by Russia.

    The Senkakus were occupied by the United States when its military occupied Okinawa in World War II but a secret annex to the U.S.-Japanese treaty excludes the islands from the U.S. defense umbrella for Japan, according to Japanese sources. Similarly, the annex does not recognize Japanese sovereignty over the southern Kuril islands of Habomai, Shikotan, Etorofu and Kunashir. Another secret protocol to the U.S.-Japanese treaty permitted to United States to station nuclear weapons on Japanese soil.

    With the U.S. increasingly seen by Japanese military and foreign policy policy-makers as an overextended and failing superpower, some elements in the Japanese government and think tanks feel that the only way Japan can be self-assured over its defense is for the country to amend its constitution and laws to allow for the introduction of nuclear weapons for the Japanese Self-Defense Force.

    The recent demotion of Japan below China to a number three world economic power ranking also has some Japanese convinced that Japan must look beyond its security alliance with the United States and provide for its own defense, which in today’s geo-political climate necessitates the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

    WMR has learned from Japanese sources that when a green light is given by the government, it will take only three months for Japan to develop and deploy nuclear warheads for its military forces. Japan maintains an independent uranium enrichment capability and is able to use its own rocket technology to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile delivery system. There is some speculation that since Japan already possesses nuclear weapons designs details, it merely has to jump to production in order to field weapons. Japan is already the world’s third largest nuclear power producer after the United States and France, both of which are nuclear weaponry powers.

    The recent skirmish between Japanese Coast Guard vessels and a Chinese fishing boat in disputed Senkaku waters and a firm Russian rejection of negotiations with Japan over the future of the disputed southern Kurils as a “dead end,” has renewed interest by Tokyo in a more independent Japanese military policy, one that sees the possession of an independent Japanese nuclear force as a definite option. Adding to Japanese frustration is the refusal of the United States to vacate its unpopular military presence on Okinawa, a factor that helped bring down the government of the former prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama.

    In 1968, Sato’s government redefined its peaceful nuclear power policy and commitment to non-proliferation by amending it to give it the option of pursuing nuclear weapons if the U.S. nuclear umbrella was ever seen as unreliable. With the revelation that the United States has excluded the Senkakus and southern Kurils from what it considers to be Japanese territory, the Sato clause is now being seriously considered. In 1994, Foreign Minister Yohei Kono revealed the existence of a secret 1969 Japanese Foreign Ministry document that urged Japan to maintain the capability to develop nuclear weapons.

    In 2005, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso reportedly told Vice President **** Cheney in Washington that “India, Pakistan, and the DPRK all have nuclear weapons. If the DPRK continues to develop nuclear weapons, Japan must also arm itself with nuclear weapons.” In 2008, Aso became Prime Minister of Japan. In 2006, former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone floated the notion of Japan acquiring its own nuclear weapons.

    Because China has always insisted Japan must not develop nuclear weapons, there is a powerful faction in Japan’s military and political establishment that wants to do exactly what China opposes as a way of throwing down a gauntlet to Beijing’s wider aspirations in Asia.

    The word from Tokyo is that it is no longer a question whether Japan will develop a nuclear weapons capability, but when. And “when” would now appear to be very close.

    If Japan opts to leave the NPT regime and obtain nuclear weapons there will be a domino effect in Asia. It is well known that while the world was concentrating on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, South Korea quietly embarked on its own secret nuclear weapons acquisition program. In 2004, it was revealed that Seoul had maintained a secret uranium enrichment production program at South Korean research facilities since the early 1980s and that the program involved enriching uranium and producing plutonium. Canada investigated charges that one of its Candu nuclear reactors it sold to South Korea was involved in the clandestine program.

    It is also believed that Taiwan acquired nuclear weapons as the result of a secret alliance between apartheid South Africa, Israel, and Taiwan. South Africa gave up its nuclear weapons when it achieved majority black rule in 1994. There are also reports of secret Israeli involvement with North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Burma is also suspected of maintaining a clandestine nuclear weapons acquisition program.
     
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  3. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Its Right time for Japan,veitnam,south korea etc. to go nuclear......
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2010
  4. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    USA in noway can protect its allies under its nuke umbrella.As the three recent incidents have shown the world that usa is quiet an unreliable ally...It wont take long for usa to leave its allies in cold waters as it did with....
    1.Georgia.. during russia-georgia war.
    2.South korea.. during cheanon sinking by north korea.
    3.Japan.. during china-japan dispute over island claim.
    4.Pakistan..which has been repeatedly betrayed and disabused by usa for past 63 years under the cloak of a ally.
     
  5. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Great. The NPT is as good as dead and a Jap test will bury the treaty in the Marianas. It is good for india too as it will mean that even SK will follow and both are at odds with China. It will make china concentrate on its east than south with India.
     
  6. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Good, everybody goes nuke, an equilibrium of terror.

    That means SK or JP won't need Uncle's umbrella any longer. Yankees go home. Let Asia be Asian's Asia! :emot112:
     
  7. Agantrope

    Agantrope Senior Member Senior Member

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    Would unkil leave that final thing to happen?

    I sense no nuclear japan in any near future.
     
  8. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Uncle is very much needed so that they don't lob nukes on each other after all JP is hated in Asia very much
     
  9. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Great news that but the question that comes to my mind is, if japan has the expertize to deploy a nuke with in a span of 3 months the day their government were to give them a go ahead and since they are the third largest nuke power producer is it not possible that they already have a few nuke weapons in their possession and for now they are just playing to the galleries, i mean its not as if this is some recent discovery that the US wont support them on those disputed territories, this was known to them way back when those treaties were singed and in between under the cover of those civil nukes they might have done something all away from the public glare.

    no mate uncle's not going anywhere, certainly not leaving south-east asia in any hurry, they are still very much relevant and will remain so for atleast another two decades but yes if something untoward were to happen, do they have the will and the financial muscle to still pull it off is to be seen, i suspect they have that muscle very much, for now they are just trying to retreat from not so useful fights they have picked up and trying to consolidate for a uncertain tomorrow, and no one depicts those characteristics of uncertainty than the rise of a commie china and china's acts off late have really not argued well for the so-called peaceful rise of china which will certainly keep the uncle interested and involved.
     
  10. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Asians Asia or Chinas Asia? I know Entire China will be praying for USA to leave Asia but that aint gona happen .
     
  11. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    my question would japan leave NTP and would america allow japan to develop nuclear weapon. does japan have to test its nuclear weapon what would america do when japan leaves NTP and carry out its test.
     
  12. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    NPT is already dead the day india didnt sign it and then with indo -usa civil nuke deal proved to be a final nail in its coffin
     
  13. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Waiting for it to happen. The US cannot sanction Japan. The day Japan leaves NPT it would be clear that it will test. Would the US be able to stop Japan then from testing? It would all make very interesting on the world diplomatic stage. The entire third world will laugh at the west. If it happens real quick, i would love to see what Ahmedanijad will have to say to the US and so will Kim.

    We would then immediately see even the Israelis test and also Iran.

    Japan testing nukes will open a can of worms. It will nuclearize the entire world. Actually not a good thing though in the Indian context, it would just legitimize everything and also put China on the back foot.
     
  14. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    The picture will get more scarier when Japans goes down that line actually, as everyone will have a reason to flex their nuke capabilities. I can see more nuke tests in that context in the Indian subcontinent, but that will kill the nuke deal we have with the Americans. It is both good and bad for India.
     
  15. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Japan always had an advanced nuclear program, their constitution kept them from developing nukes, now with the threat from N.Korea and China; Japan has changed their constitution and is pursuing militarization and nukes. This is a positive development for Asia it will bring stability to Asia and keep the irresponsible nuclear proliferating Chinese in check,stupid Chinese invited this and now they are getting nukes pointed at them from every direction.
     
  16. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    I hope the Japanese don't go nuclear because if they do, then Iran, Libya, Saudi and almost every fundamentalist and autocratic country in the region will go nuclear. What's more, unstable dictators, infamous kings and ruthless, brainless mullas will command them. I think this is simply a strategic warning to USA that it better provide nuclear support to Japanese claim or risk Japan going nuclear. And Japanese tests will be taken as an excuse to the now anti-America Pakistan to conduct fresh nuclear tests, holding our nuke sub launch as an excuse that it has been waiting for. That's the last thing we want since we all know what deep mess Pakistan is in and how close Taliban is to seize Pakistani nuclear weapons. We cannot risk that.

    For some reasons, I don't understand why Burmese of all the people want nuclear weapons. They have cold ties with Thailand but its not hostile. There were a few clashes between Bangladesh and Burma some months back, but that was it. Uncle Sam would do his nut to stop Japanese going nuclear. Remember that Japanese are still highly dependent on US for defence technology even though they manufacture a lot of their own stuff.

    At the most Uncle will be pressured to extend a special consideration of the nuclear shield that if Japan and China go to war, Japan under worst circumstances gets the rights to use US nuclear weapons in retaliatory strikes. That's about it. The last thing US would want is an Imperial Japan returning with a vengeance.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2010
  17. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    The nuclear genie is out of the bottle, these nations will pursue their programs regardless of what Japan does. Iran once said why can India have a nuclear program and they can't have one?? So all nations can use this as an exuse, but it dosen't a nation from maintaining their national security. Soon Vietnam may also be nuclear, China started this by proliferating nukes allover Asia, why should the nations that did not receive the proliferation remain nuke free when nukes are pointed at hem?? Japan does not have to worry too much Japan and Taiwan are both under USA's nuclear umbrella. But the use of proxies by China to do their dirty work has complicated this nuclear equation.
     
  18. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Japan will develop nukes but will keep it like israel. They just cannot afford to go overt for a lot of reasons that affect world security.
     
  19. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Chinese policy of nuclear prolifiration will come back to haunt them very soon. This proliferation will force more and more countries to have nukes to maintain minimum deterrence against china and its puppet states.
     
  20. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    This time USA is proliferating against China and China can't do anything about it.
     
  21. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    this idea has been around at least a decade - im reasonably confident samurai already has nukes just one cellophane tape short of complete - as for testing they propbabaly are doing cputer simulations by the dozen - all that's really necessary is for dragon to be enough of a threat to justify samurai to do a real physical test.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2010

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