2025: Who will overtake US Economy First?

no smoking

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Politically too, there are many challenges, especially since Chinese people are already demanding greater freedoms and expectations from the government rise every day as more and more Chinese become aware of their human rights. How these are tackled in the future is pure speculation.
No, currently, the majoriy of chinese is still focusing on the equality of income distribution instead of political freedom.

If you have a deeper look at the cause of most protests in past several years, you can find most of them are linked to economic problem instead of political problem: compensation of displace, salary rate, the work compensation, etc. Futher more, the background ofpeople who is advocating political freedom is concentrated on university professors, lawyer and journalist, none comes from worker or peasant. So, we can find that the major 2 power of china's potential revolution forces have not asked any political reform yet. As long as they are on the same side with gov politically, CCP won't worry any plitical threat. The fate of china is decided by these 2 power, not student, lawyer or human right activist.
 

indopak5

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By that logic, i am wondering if US will allow India to be the first.
Thanks for replying Nimo. But what i mean is not that US will allow india to become NO.1 economy or not. There are many other areas. Like US supplying All High tech Military Hardware to india. In that way India could have an upper hand on china in military with all these High-Tech equipments. Thats what i mean.
 

Martian

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Like US supplying All High tech Military Hardware to india. In that way India could have an upper hand on china in military with all these High-Tech equipments.
Instead of a border skirmish, if China became serious and started massing large numbers of troops for a major invasion of India, I believe that the US will intervene and provide India with the necessary military hardware to defend herself.

The chess match in Asia is Russia-China (respectively: lots of nuclear weapons and world's largest oil exporter; major rising world economy and conventional power) versus US-India. After decades, the US suddenly started wooing India. The US finally realized that Europe was too far away and that the European countries were not going to fight a major ground war in Asia.

When the Soviet Union was strong, the US wooed China in 1971. Similarly, the US will not permit China to have overwhelming influence in Asia. The US could easily stop China in her tracks by basing a few squadrons of F-22s in India. Also, the US could lead worldwide economic sanctions against China.

The US and China are mature powers. They understand the rules of the game. For example, China has not tried to take a territorial bite out of her smaller neighbors for thirty years or more.

While it's fun to speculate on an India-China border war, the reality is that none of us will see a real war between those countries in our lifetime.

As an example of American power, China couldn't even take a few islands off her own coast from Taiwan.

"The United States issued several nuclear threats against the People's Republic of China in the 1950s to force the evacuation of outlying islands and the cessation of attacks against Quemoy and Matsu, part of Republic of China.[1]" See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_blackmail

The relationship between the US and China is extremely serious and that even "trash talk" is not permitted.

"Beijing is said to rebuke general
Threatening tone drew ire of US

By Benjamin Kang Lim, Reuters | December 23, 2005

BEIJING -- A Chinese general has been punished for telling reporters China could use nuclear weapons in the event of a US attack over Taiwan, military sources said on yesterday.

Major General Zhu Chenghu received an ''administrative demerit" recently from the National Defense University, which bars him from promotion for one year, said the sources, who requested anonymity.

''He misspoke. But the punishment could not be too harsh or we would be seen as too weak towards the United States," one source said.

An administrative demerit is the second lightest punishment on a scale of one to five, but still potentially damaging to his career. The lightest is an administrative warning, while the heaviest is expulsion.

''His chances for promotion in the future are extremely slim," another source said." See http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2005/12/23/beijing_is_said_to_rebuke_general/ or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhu_Chenghu
 

tiger usa

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US is a big economy and big economies take a little while to bounce back. US economy is in recovery and will bounce back. I have seen 6 US recessions in the last 30 years. Though the US Economy did even bounce back from the great depression. The number one spot for 2025 will be decided in the years to come.
 

badguy2000

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after the new yearly statistic is published, I will come here to dig tomb ....I hope that all those china-bashers will still be here..
 

tiger usa

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Chinese economy is good, but my company does business in China and there are many logistical issues still in China. US has a complete network of roads and highways. It will take China or India another 30 years to have a highway network to match the US.
 

Koji

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after the new yearly statistic is published, I will come here to dig tomb ....I hope that all those china-bashers will still be here..
Exactly. Doubters continue to predict the unevitable collapse of the Chinese economy for almost 8 years now. And yet, every single year they are wrong. To make matters worse is that the growth gap becomes wider every year too!!!


And by the way, Fortune 500 takes into account state activity. So your subsidy argument, Vlad, is mute.
 

Vladimir79

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Fortune 500 doesn't measure "market-distorting subsidies" as filed by the US case against China in the WTO.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- China is illegally subsidizing hundreds of billions of dollars of exports to the United States, the Bush administration charged Friday, as it filed a mammoth unfair trade case against Beijing.

"We are committed to challenging China's WTO-inconsistent practices that harm American workers and businesses," said U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab in a prepared statement.

"China's use of market-distorting subsidies creates an uneven playing field and subverts China's own efforts to foster consumption-led growth," Schwab said.

The U.S. is seeking WTO-sponsored talks with China to end the subsidies, including basic tax laws and other tools, which the U.S. says are illegal and provide incentives for foreign investors in China and their Chinese partners to export to the United States.

Chinese law contains a series of measures that reduce taxes and other payments owed to the government by exporters. They violate a number of WTO rules, including the explicit prohibition of export subsidies.

The companies who qualify for using these subsidies account for nearly 60% of China's exports of factory goods in 2005, including steel, wood and paper, the USTR said.

Pressure has been mounting on the White House from Congress and U.S. manufacturers to take action to counter the growing bilateral trade gap, which some experts say may hit a record $240 billion in 2006. U.S. files WTO case against China over export subsidies - MarketWatch
 

badguy2000

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there are so many china-bashers here.....I can not help remembering their most famous comrade-----------MR.Gordon Chang,who wrote a famous book<Coming collapse of China> ten years ago

here is a comment on Mr.Gordon Chang, I am happy to watch who will be the next "Gordon Chang"!
Forbes.com - Comments
I cannot believe a loser by the name of Gordon Chang can spread hogwash all over the places again. I followed his advice (in his book "Coming collapse of China") and shorted Chinese markets in the mid 1990s. Since then the China's markets advanced more than 3000% and needlessly to say I suffered heavy losses. OK, I blame myself for being stupid enough to listen to an *****. By the way, in the same 15 year time frame the American stock market suffered 6 bear market, and is where it was 15 years ago!

Now I know better, Mr. Chang has knows nothing about economics and business. All he knows is politics, politics, and stupid politics. Could you please move your hogwash to where it belongs (e.g. Young Replibcans for Future America?) I am a loyal Forbes fan and all I need to know is fact, fact, and more fact. Who needs your stupid opinions anyway?
 

Martian

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Pressure has been mounting on the White House from Congress and U.S. manufacturers to take action to counter the growing bilateral trade gap, which some experts say may hit a record $240 billion in 2006. U.S. files WTO case against China over export subsidies - MarketWatch
The issue of export subsidies is an ongoing dialogue between the US and China.

"China Agrees to Remove Certain Export Subsidies
Nov 30, 2007 ... China agreed Thursday to terminate a dozen different subsidies and tax rebates that promote its own exports and discourage imports of steel, ..." See http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/30/business/worldbusiness/30trade.html

"Challenged by Trade Partners, China Ends Export Credit Subsidy
Mar 12, 2007 ... China terminates a central bank program that allowed a select group of large exporters to take advantage of discounted loans unavailable to ..."
Read more: Challenged by Trade Partners, China Ends Export Credit Subsidy
 

badguy2000

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Chinese economy is good, but my company does business in China and there are many logistical issues still in China. US has a complete network of roads and highways. It will take China or India another 30 years to have a highway network to match the US.
have you seen chinese road net ?
the length of Chinese expressways is just a bit shorter than USA's and can supass USA's in 5 years at most.

Besides, CHinese expressways are all brandnew while USA"s are soo old and badly-maintained.
here is link of chinese expessways&highways.
[PRC] Chinese highways & Expressways ( 中国高速 ) - SkyscraperCity

Furthermore, Chinese high-speed railway is advancing much more rapidly than USA.
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=218503
Frankly speaking, in one decade, CHinese infrastructures,from highway to railway, will eclipse USA's,if CHinese brand-new expressways have not elipsed USA"s yet...
 

ppgj

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Instead of a border skirmish, if China became serious and started massing large numbers of troops for a major invasion of India, I believe that the US will intervene and provide India with the necessary military hardware to defend herself.
USA has too many stakes in china. will not allow anything serious to happen. but still if it happens, that is a possibility but clandestine.

The chess match in Asia is Russia-China (respectively: lots of nuclear weapons and world's largest oil exporter; major rising world economy and conventional power) versus US-India. After decades, the US suddenly started wooing India.
i doubt. india will not allow itself playing the to the tune of USA. remember RUSSIA is india's friend. china, russia themselves do not see eye to eye. both russia and india will be glad to see USA and CHINA fight it out among themselves.

When the Soviet Union was strong, the US wooed China in 1971. Similarly, the US will not permit China to have overwhelming influence in Asia.
that is what they are trying.

The US and China are mature powers. They understand the rules of the game. For example, China has not tried to take a territorial bite out of her smaller neighbors for thirty years or more.
come again please. they have been trying but have been deterred.

While it's fun to speculate on an India-China border war, the reality is that none of us will see a real war between those countries in our lifetime.
you never know. wars are always surprises.

As an example of American power, China couldn't even take a few islands off her own coast from Taiwan.
china wants to take without fighting. they know it is not a good time. as long as taiwan does not overshoot, they will bide their time.
 

Martian

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USA has too many stakes in china. will not allow anything serious to happen. but still if it happens, that is a possibility but clandestine.
We have historical precedence in 1963 of America planning to stop China dead in her tracks.

"In a May 1963 National Security Council meeting, contingency planning on the part of the United States in the event of another Chinese attack on India was discussed. Defense Secretary Robert McNamara and General Maxwell Taylor advised the president to use nuclear weapons should the Americans intervene in such a situation. Kennedy insisted that Washington defend India as it would any ally, saying, "We should defend India, and therefore we will defend India".[47] The Johnson Administration considered and then rejected giving nuclear weapons technology to the Indians." See Sino-Indian War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

i doubt. india will not allow itself playing the to the tune of USA. remember RUSSIA is india's friend. china, russia themselves do not see eye to eye. both russia and india will be glad to see USA and CHINA fight it out among themselves.
"WASHINGTON: Russia has been among the countries that could challenge U.S interests, according to the U.S. 2009 National Intelligence Strategy (NIS).

The NIS, a four-year blueprint for intelligence services, was released late on Tuesday.

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have been listed as countries that "have the ability to challenge US interests" not only in traditional ways, such as military force and espionage, but also in "emerging" ways, in particular cyber operations." See Russia could challenge US interests – Report | Defense & Security News at DefenceTalk

The US NIS report has clearly identified Russia and China as "challengers"/potential enemies. The US, as the strongest country, determines the rules of the game. Due to US posture, rational Russia and China will be scared and will work together to defend themselves against US military might (i.e. exclusive possession of stealth fighters and bombers, 11 aircraft carrier battle groups, 68 Aegis destroyers/cruisers, prototype Ballistic Missile Defense, etc.).

With apologies to my Indian friends, the US has designated India as a supporter/ally of the US. India will mostly follow US policy because of the tremendous military and/or economic benefits that the US can provide to India. Also, India is worried about China. Only the US can protect India through conventional and/or nuclear means.

US NIS policy has set the context for the chessboard. It will be Russia-China versus US-India. Sometimes, countries don't get to choose. Geopolitics can limit a country's options. US NIS posture has limited Russia and China to an uneasy alliance. India will ultimately be limited to the US camp.
 

p2prada

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"In a May 1963 National Security Council meeting, contingency planning on the part of the United States in the event of another Chinese attack on India was discussed. Defense Secretary Robert McNamara and General Maxwell Taylor advised the president to use nuclear weapons should the Americans intervene in such a situation. Kennedy insisted that Washington defend India as it would any ally, saying, "We should defend India, and therefore we will defend India".[47] The Johnson Administration considered and then rejected giving nuclear weapons technology to the Indians." See Sino-Indian War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
10 years later you send the USS Enterprise into the Bay of Bengal to stop India militarily.

With apologies to my Indian friends, the US has designated India as a supporter/ally of the US.
It was only a press statement made by your visiting secretary of state who said, "Since we are the largest and greatest democracies, we are natural allies."

India will generally or ultimately follow US policy because of the tremendous military and/or economic benefits that the US can provide to India.
Not necessary. In 50 years, we may have to protect the US from China.

Only the US can protect India through conventional and/or nuclear means.
True. But, we like to do things at our own pace. We can continue to keep a military relationship with Russia and Israel, in a few years, even that will not be necessary.

US NIS policy has set the context for the chessboard. It will be Russia-China versus US-India. Sometimes, countries don't get to choose. Geopolitics can limit a country's options. US NIS posture has limited Russia and China to an uneasy alliance. India will ultimately be limited to the US camp.
It will be US vs China. Russia and India will be mere spectators and a lot of press statements.


US will not HELP India in case of a India-China war. Not even Russia. We are on our own. US and Russia will make press statements at that time.
 

Martian

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10 years later you send the USS Enterprise into the Bay of Bengal to stop India militarily.
That's very interesting. I guess American policy is more fluid than I had believed.

It was only a press statement made by your visiting secretary of state who said, "Since we are the largest and greatest democracies, we are natural allies."
I like your counterpoints. Here, you seem to be implying that America is only interested in India as long as India follows American dictates/interests.

It will be US vs China. Russia and India will be mere spectators and a lot of press statements.
Another interesting idea. If the US really wants to take a crack at China, it will be one-on-one. Whoever sits out the fight will win by de facto.

US will not HELP India in case of a India-China war. Not even Russia. We are on our own. US and Russia will make press statements at that time.
I like this counterpoint too. We have never seen the US confront a potentially future near-peer country. It's one thing to confront a weak China on Taiwan's behalf in the 1960s. However, it is an open question as to whether the US will really confront a strong China on India's behalf.
 

p2prada

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I like your counterpoints. Here, you seem to be implying that America is only interested in India as long as India follows American dictates/interests.
After 30 years of sanctions and helping other countries kill our countrymen, the US can never dictate any policy to India.

We will partner(not ally) with the US only if they see us as equals. But, we will continue keeping good relations with Russia and work on our relationship with China. The Soviets saw us as equals and were never disappointed. Indo-Russian relations have never faltered whereas any US alliance means you end up being a vassal state, even if you are as powerful as the EU.
 

Daredevil

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I like this counterpoint too. We have never seen the US confront a potentially future near-peer country. It's one thing to confront a weak China on Taiwan's behalf in the 1960s. However, it is an open question as to whether the US will really confront a strong China on India's behalf.
We don't need US to confront China on behalf of India. India can handle China. Any war between India/China will be stalemate. Geography is such that it will not give victory to either of them.
 

ppgj

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We have never seen the US confront a potentially future near-peer country
why? 'cos it means mutually assured destruction. that is why US never fought USSR even at the peak of cold war.
However, it is an open question as to whether the US will really confront a strong China on India's behalf.
it never will. max it may do is clandestine arms supply to india and some movement of their naval fleet around china. that is all. they wont fire a single shot.
 

Martian

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After 30 years of sanctions and helping other countries kill our countrymen, the US can never dictate any policy to India.
Look on the bright side. US had sanctions against China for 20 years. Also, the US is still continuing sanctions against Russia; 1974 Jackson-Vanik law is still in effect and keeping Russia out of WTO. I guess India's still mad about those lost 30 years.

We will partner(not ally) with the US only if they see us as equals. But, we will continue keeping good relations with Russia and work on our relationship with China. The Soviets saw us as equals and were never disappointed. Indo-Russian relations have never faltered whereas any US alliance means you end up being a vassal state, even if you are as powerful as the EU.
Not only is the EU a "vassal state" to the US, some people believe that China is also a junior partner to the US; especially in the economic sphere. For example, when the US demanded an increase in the Yuan, China publicly denounced the pressure. And yet, from 2005 to 2009, China increased the Yuan value by 21% against the US dollar. I smell a junior partner.

Years ago, I remember reading articles about US diplomats and government officials complaining about China not carrying her weight in maintaining world order. The complaint was basically that you can't be a P5 with a veto and just sit on the council. The US wanted either Chinese combat troops for US/UN led missions or Chinese UN peacekeepers to free up scarce US peacekeepers/combat troops.

I thought it was just empty complaints. After years, to my surprise, China's UN peacekeeping force keeps increasing. US pressure worked.

"Currently, of the five permanent members on the U.N. Security Council, China and France are the two largest contributors to peacekeeping missions. According to a U.N. report, as of May 31, 2008, there are 1,977 Chinese and 2,090 French military personnel serving on U.N. peacekeeping operations around the world. Other permanent Security Council members have decreased their involvement: the United Kingdom commits 358; Russia 299; and the United States 289." See http://www.uschina.usc.edu/ShowFeature.aspx?articleID=2069

I've also noticed a trend in increased Chinese foreign aid/donations or debt forgiveness to heavily-indebted poor countries. I wonder if China is supporting US policy under US pressure.

Regarding equality, everybody knows that the US doesn't see other countries as equals. The US sees everyone else as military and/or economic midgets.
 

Martian

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We don't need US to confront China on behalf of India. India can handle China. Any war between India/China will be stalemate. Geography is such that it will not give victory to either of them.
I completely agree with you. I don't see how you can fight a real war with the HIMALAYAS between the two countries. Mountains can't be moved. End of any real war.
 

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