The latest 3 to 4 km brazen incursions by PLA on the Indian side of the border in Ladakh is Xi Jinping's attempt to instigate a small quick skirmish with India that would result in the PLA deploying overwhelming power and winning decisively in a short time.
Xi Jinping is desperate, and needs a small war to convince Chinese people that they are a major military power, and to consolidate his power against all forces both internal and external. The PLA haven't fought a conventional battle since the 60's with Vietnam. He cannot take on the US. The US military will wipe the floor with China's ass in a conventional war. Xi has fanned the flames of a rabid Chinese nationalism and the only way to satiate the desires of the masses is to win a war.
So his only viable option is Vietnam, India or Taiwan. Vietnam is not that big of an adversary, and a fellow communist country, Taiwan is too risky, and it would be a carnage with most of Taiwan's civilian population decimated which would be a worldwide PR fiasco. There is also the risk of the US Navy getting involved. So the best option really is to fight a quick war with India and take over one of the North-east States.
India has no real allies. The Russians will sit on the sidelines, and the US will probably speed up some weapons delivery to India, but basically India's neutral stand in international politics means it really has no friends to rush to its defense. The EU states will do nothing. China knows that, and I think if China starts a war in this century - it will start with India.
Xi Jinping is desperate, and needs a small war to convince Chinese people that they are a major military power, and to consolidate his power against all forces both internal and external. The PLA haven't fought a conventional battle since the 60's with Vietnam. He cannot take on the US. The US military will wipe the floor with China's ass in a conventional war. Xi has fanned the flames of a rabid Chinese nationalism and the only way to satiate the desires of the masses is to win a war.
So his only viable option is Vietnam, India or Taiwan. Vietnam is not that big of an adversary, and a fellow communist country, Taiwan is too risky, and it would be a carnage with most of Taiwan's civilian population decimated which would be a worldwide PR fiasco. There is also the risk of the US Navy getting involved. So the best option really is to fight a quick war with India and take over one of the North-east States.
India has no real allies. The Russians will sit on the sidelines, and the US will probably speed up some weapons delivery to India, but basically India's neutral stand in international politics means it really has no friends to rush to its defense. The EU states will do nothing. China knows that, and I think if China starts a war in this century - it will start with India.