Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

[Lost user]

So you are not taking salt from my bucket.....fine.

Then take it from The Wire.

What You Need to Know Before Trying to Make Sense of Sero-Survey Results – The Wire Science

science.thewire.in

ICMR surveys are broad based... and more rigorous.. Also, they don't account for someone who was infected earlier, has minimal antibodies, and thus tests negative in sero survey, but has T cell memory.
To catch almost all infections one would have to test all Indians everyday, that is 1.4 billion RT PCR tests everyday, which is impossible.
So, all countries underestimate confirmed cases to varying degrees. That was the broad thrust of my argument.
Was born and brought in a South Indian costal town. So, I am already full of Salt. Anyway no hard feelings.. over some of my personal remarks..

 

[Lost user]

Same milords will go screaming from rooftops in full Rudali mode if kids get vulnerable in future waves and are unprotected due to lack of vaccine trials. Delhi HC means they are probably doing so at that venomous treacherous snake Khujli's behest.

Adolescent trials in the west take informed consent from the guardian.. Thats how it happens everywhere. This PIL should not even have been heard.
Milords won't stop trials of kids.. They just want everyone to be on tenterhooks.. and keep everyone running around.. Need some presidential order to quarantine these milords in Andaman for the duration of the pandemic..

 

[Lost user]

These fks are always wrong goi should do something

These brown Saheb experts and liberandus will just keep circulating pictures of bodies from UP/Bihar from April, and keep shouting that Pandemic is raging in rural areas, and only they know the truth.. Pandemic in UP rural areas seems to have abated..

 

[mokoman]

He said 8 to 10 lakh cases daily but it's just 270 K daily now and falling rapidly he said the situation will get worse and worse stop lying

He said the positivity rate of the virus will increase but it has decreased significantly he was lying and fear mongering

Also the 4.5 K deaths was for one day now it's 3.7k it's decreasing steadyly karan thapar lied by spreading misinformation and fear mongering

@captscooby81

Isnt she half right ?

Deaths today was at 4k , daily cases at peak was near 4 lakh.

10 lakh daily she predicted is total , as she says in video not all covid cases will be included in statistics , asymtomatic cases wont be tested and not included.

She got the peaking time wrong , but so did others.

 

[Abdus Salem killed]

Isnt she half right ?

Deaths today was at 4k , daily cases at peak was near 4 lakh.

10 lakh daily she predicted is total , as she says in video not all covid cases will be included in statistics , asymtomatic cases wont be tested and not included.

She got the peaking time wrong , but so did others.

She got this wrong as well

And many other search. YouTube

 

[ezsasa]

Isnt she half right ?

Deaths today was at 4k , daily cases at peak was near 4 lakh.

10 lakh daily she predicted is total , as she says in video not all covid cases will be included in statistics , asymtomatic cases wont be tested and not included.

She got the peaking time wrong , but so did others.

all these fellows are guesstimating, similar to how psephologists guesstimate elections, because india's data so large and scarce. for ex: for most part total number of tests and cases was coming from John's hopkins not govt institute last year.

economists say, when you make a prediction, predict often so that atleast one prediction is right.
Just like raghuram rajan's prediction's of recession. he predict's recession so often that,when it comes around once every decade anyways. he is right that time, and gets a book deal for that.

our worry should be how many such fellows are advising govt.

 

[ladder]

ICMR surveys are broad based... and more rigorous.. Also, they don't account for someone who was infected earlier, has minimal antibodies, and thus tests negative in sero survey, but has T cell memory.
To catch almost all infections one would have to test all Indians everyday, that is 1.4 billion RT PCR tests everyday, which is impossible.
So, all countries underestimate confirmed cases to varying degrees. That was the broad thrust of my argument.
Was born and brought in a South Indian costal town. So, I am already full of Salt. Anyway no hard feelings.. over some of my personal remarks..

“All districts have recorded over 50% antibodies which is a good news. It can be expected that more 20-25% people have attained antibodies. However, surveillance should be continued in order to understand the situation better,” said Dr Jugal Kishore, head of the department of community medicine at Safdarjung hospital.

Fifth Covid-19 sero-survey result suggests Delhi in comfortable position: Experts

NEW DELHI: As the results of Delhi’s fifth serosurvey is out, experts believe that the national capital is in a comfortable position in handling the pandemic.

www.newindianexpress.com

Explain the first two sentences. What is 50% and what is 20-25% in them?

If you port this statement to national sero-survey, what numbers you are looking at?

We ( me and @captscooby81 ) are taking issues as, in your first post ( in this series) you multiplied 19% or 21% ( national sero-survey prevalence) with the national population to arrive at 'a' or a particular figure.
By doing that you converted an indicative parameter to a deterministic one. Which is not a correct way of reading the seroprevalance data.
There are various reasons for not doing so, some of then are in the articles I have attached.

So, in conclusion, yes India is bound to have missed many positive cases (and many deaths as well) but how many positive cases have been missed? That cannot be determined from seroprevalance data.

---
And by living near coastal town, do you plan to go the Gandhian way for salt? I prefer Iodised one. And Gandhian way is not the one.

 

[Kumata]

She got this wrong as well

And many other search. YouTube

Can we pls stop posting these stupid journos who are know Darbari's and are on payroll... we are looking for logic in them... seriously!!!!!!!!!!

you want to see predictions.. visit below

(Nbsslup) National Bureau Of Soil Survey, Nbss&lup, Nbss Nagpur -

Nbsslup एक स्वायत्त संगठन है जो पूरी तरह से भारत सरकार द्वारा वित्तपोषित है। जिसका मुख्य उद्देश्य मृदा सर्वेक्षण, पेडोलॉजी, जियोमॉर्फोलॉजी, रिमोट सेंसिंग,

www.sutra-india.in

Purely data driven and accurate.

 

[sorcerer]

Nepal confirms presence of third B.1.617.2 variant of coronavirus

After confirming two variants of coronavirus, Nepal on Tuesday confirmed that there were cases of third variant B.1.617.2 in the country

"B.1.617.2 is the new variant seen in India while B.1.617.1 is the one seen in the UK. Earlier last year, Nepal reported the variant arising from China. With this, three variants of virus have been detected," Dr. Sameer Kumar Adhikari, Assistant Spokesperson for ministry stated in release.

India News: Latest India News, Live and Breaking News Today from India | Business Standard

India News: Business Standard brings the top news from India on Indian politics, elections, government and more.

www.business-standard.com

China-Nepal border row intensifies as border pillars go missing in Daulkha
Beijing has turned the heat alongside the borders of its neighbouring country Nepal with border pillars vanishing in the Daulkha district of the Himalayan nation

China-Nepal border row intensifies as border pillars go missing in Daulkha

Beijing has turned the heat alongside the borders of its neighbouring country Nepal with border pillars vanishing in the Daulkha district of the Himalayan nation

www.business-standard.com

A new virus variant and a renwed posturing from china at the same time.

 

[Lost user]

Explain the first two sentences. What is 50% and what is 20-25% in them?

You should go ask Dr Jugal Kishore.. Could not make any sense of it

We ( me and @captscooby81 ) are taking issues as, in your first post ( in this series) you multiplied 19% or 21% ( national sero-survey prevalence) with the national population to arrive at 'a' or a particular figure.
By doing that you converted an indicative parameter to a deterministic one. Which is not a correct way of reading the seroprevalance data.
There are various reasons for not doing so, some of then are in the articles I have attached.

A sample survey is by definition indicative. So, when the sero survey states 19 to 21 percent of adult population might have been already infected.. It is pointing to a probable number of infected people of around 19 crore, and this number too is probabilistic..

 

[Indrajit]

You should go ask Dr Jugal Kishore.. Could not make any sense of it


A sample survey is by definition indicative. So, when the sero survey states 19 to 21 percent of adult population might have been already infected.. It is pointing to a probable number of infected people of around 19 crore, and this number too is probabilistic..

19 crores? OK I guess since CNN was saying 50 crores(500 million). As good a guess as any. Except that in that case, we have a very low death count. At 1%, let alone higher there should have been 20 lakh-50 lakh deaths. Unless we are hiding all those deaths and all of them are choosing to die quietly and without any attempt to get help, the figures being suggested don't have enough substance to back them up.

 

[captscooby81]

Dude please stop posting that video again and again in every reply of yours . You look more subtly promoting this video than criticising it .

She got this wrong as well

And many other search. YouTube

 

[captscooby81]

Sero surveys are done in Urban centres mostly in metros with kind of population density we have in our metros we cant take same apply to rural india . Does population density applies same across our country ? We can't give curtain statement saying we have close to 20 % infection across country based on sero survey done just in metro's .

ICMR surveys are broad based... and more rigorous.. Also, they don't account for someone who was infected earlier, has minimal antibodies, and thus tests negative in sero survey, but has T cell memory.
To catch almost all infections one would have to test all Indians everyday, that is 1.4 billion RT PCR tests everyday, which is impossible.
So, all countries underestimate confirmed cases to varying degrees. That was the broad thrust of my argument.
Was born and brought in a South Indian costal town. So, I am already full of Salt. Anyway no hard feelings.. over some of my personal remarks..

 

[captscooby81]

For the first time since Chinese wuhan virus attack . We had touched 20 lakh testing per day for two consecutive days on Tuesday and Wednesday .

UP did 3 lakh test yesterday and got 7100 positive cases the TPR rate dropped from 5 % to 2.5 % straight away in one day and close to 15 % drop from 14 days ago . Now leftshits will say this is fudging only opposition states are honest and reporting correct numbers .

MH even after a good month of so called lockdown still is reporting 30+k cases every day looks like they will continue reporting in between 10-20k cases regularly and then will kick of the 3rd wave same as how they kick started the 2nd way .

But they will get away easily blaming vaccination as issue this time like how they got away almost with zero finger pointing in 2nd wave .

Every one is busy looking into UP but don't even bother MH which is reporting 30k cases every single day .

 

[Abdus Salem killed]

For the first time since Chinese wuhan virus attack . We had touched 20 lakh testing per day for two consecutive days on Tuesday and Wednesday .

UP did 3 lakh test yesterday and got 7100 positive cases the TPR rate dropped from 5 % to 2.5 % straight away in one day and close to 15 % drop from 14 days ago . Now leftshits will say this is fudging only opposition states are honest and reporting correct numbers .

MH even after a good month of so called lockdown still is reporting 30+k cases every day looks like they will continue reporting in between 10-20k cases regularly and then will kick of the 3rd wave same as how they kick started the 2nd way .

But they will get away easily blaming vaccination as issue this time like how they got away almost with zero finger pointing in 2nd wave .

Every one is busy looking into UP but don't even bother MH which is reporting 30k cases every single day .

Everyone hates yogi BCS he's a good target to demean all hindus

 

[doreamon]

on a avg 27,600 deaths per day happen in india . Now many saying if covid death is 4,000, its only a 15% increase over the natural deaths happening .. so how crematorium are full . Now thats how optics preached in media works.. Most of these deaths are happening in metro cities or hot spot areas .. crematorium in these places bound to go full ... And this numbers includes bodies flowing in ganga.. As these bodies were covered in PPE i assume they died in hospitals .. Numbers cld be more but not to the level as claimed by some so called experts ..

 

[ezsasa]

For the first time since Chinese wuhan virus attack . We had touched 20 lakh testing per day for two consecutive days on Tuesday and Wednesday .

UP did 3 lakh test yesterday and got 7100 positive cases the TPR rate dropped from 5 % to 2.5 % straight away in one day and close to 15 % drop from 14 days ago . Now leftshits will say this is fudging only opposition states are honest and reporting correct numbers .

MH even after a good month of so called lockdown still is reporting 30+k cases every day looks like they will continue reporting in between 10-20k cases regularly and then will kick of the 3rd wave same as how they kick started the 2nd way .

But they will get away easily blaming vaccination as issue this time like how they got away almost with zero finger pointing in 2nd wave .

Every one is busy looking into UP but don't even bother MH which is reporting 30k cases every single day .

If we assume migrant crisis(from MH & DL) in first wave and farmer's protest in DL in second wave as deliberate human wave tactics to spread the virus, then there will be a manufactured human wave heading towards UP in the coming months before this calendar year closes.

UP elections will be in Feb & Mar 2022.

 

[afako]

on a avg 27,600 deaths per day happen in india . Now many saying if covid death is 4,000, its only a 15% increase over the natural deaths happening .. so how crematorium are full . Now thats how optics preached in media works.. Most of these deaths are happening in metro cities or hot spot areas .. crematorium in these places bound to go full ... And this numbers includes bodies flowing in ganga.. As these bodies were covered in PPE i assume they died in hospitals .. Numbers cld be more but not to the level as claimed by some so called experts ..

View attachment 90680

The number of deaths due to covid cannot exceed more than twice the official deaths. Some news outlet were reporting upto 10 times. This even fails fails basic logic test.

 

[mandestiny]

If we assume migrant crisis(from MH & DL) in first wave and farmer's protest in DL in second wave as deliberate human wave tactics to spread the virus, then there will be a manufactured human wave heading towards UP in the coming months before this calendar year closes.

UP elections will be in Feb & Mar 2022.

This is very important to nab these, If govt applied the danda at that time , then this will not happen.

To remove modi , yeh sab hoonga never expected.

 

[mokoman]

Summary of ICMR sero survey , thought it was interesting.

https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/userfiles/Modified%20ICMR_SecondSerosurvey_MMSP%20(1).pdf

Lockdown/containment and behavior change at population level have effectively checked potential spread of SARS-Cov-2

Susceptibility of a considerable section of people, yet unexposed to SARS-Cov-2, exists

26–32 infections per reported case by August 2020 (81-130 in May 2020) – underlines the effect of scaled up testing tracking and treating strategy

Urban slum (15.6%) and non-slum (8.2%) areas had higher SARSCov-2 infection prevalence than that of rural areas (4.4%)

Prevalence in adults (≥ 18 years): 7.1% (95% CI: 6.2–8.2)

Elderly, individuals with comorbidities, pregnant women & children to be protected

In the light of the upcoming festivities, winter season and mass gathering, inventive containment strategies to be implemented by the States