Here is the deal, We are in a race against time on multiple fronts, and we are being crushed on each front with no respite whatsoever. This situation can't go on, there is simply not enough slack in the system to absorb the continuing increment in strain.
1. We need time to ramp up the medical infrastructure given the current one is severely inadequate. It will take time, few weeks by our estimates for major cities, could be more than a couple of months for rural regions.
2. The medical staff is working at over 100% normal capacity for months now across the country. Reserves are nonexistent. Beyond the obvious and sad losses to covid, there is also a steady build up of systematic fatigue and frustration, anxiety and stress related problems across health workers. The situation is worse than that for soldiers in the Eastern Front during WW2. Active combat would largely sustain for 3-4 days or 5-6 using Meth. Here the individuals are being pushed beyond their capacity for weeks. We are at risk of sections or a large part of the healthcare workers collapsing from overwork, similar to what happened in Sweden and Italy and a few countries. We cannot afford that come what may.
3. We are now finally acknowledging the reality that a third wave is in the works, somewhere, quietly. We need to spread out the gap between the second wave and the third wave to the maximum extent possible. We are also at considerable risk of this wave being a prolonged one with multiple spikes/peaks as opposed to the smooth curve of first wave. God Forbid if it kicks in right around the time this wave hits its peak. It'll make last year's abhorrent headline chasing projections look like a trip to a cherry blossom event.
4. Vaccines are coming. But the earliest projections we have is that vaccine manufacture will pick up to bare minimum acceptable levels only around end June-Early July. If TRIPS-WTO agrees to a waiver of patents, we will still require another 4-6 months from that date before new generic vaccine manufacturers can enter the market in quantity. Additionally, we estimate that US and Europe will have a excess of over 100-200 million doses by July end. We can't be sure but it is something we may be able to tap into in an emergency. But that is still another 3 months away.
We need a lockdown. This is why almost every single expert is now favoring a lockdown across the country. In military terms, we dont have the capability to go on an offensive, our objectives should be decisively fighting a delaying action across the fronts, while waiting for strategic reserves to move up.
As for the argument of economic activity, it has already collapsed. Industry after industry is shutting down. Real Estate has ground to a halt. Q1 FY21 had a GDP growth of -23% on an annualized basis. It would require a GDP growth of close to 33% GDP growth to offset the loss for that period alone. We were on track for atleast a 25% growth in this quarter before covid. Instead we are likely to see GDP growth rates of 10-15%, which looks great, but it essentially means we haven't even covered the gap from last year's Q1.
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