'World economy has shifted from West to East'

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China doesn't have any social safety net for its older population. It is pretty much like India, you save when you are young and live on your savings when you retire or you depend on your sons/daughters. So, its population is on its own.
one son or daughter
 

Vinod2070

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the shift is happening but the WEST is still where the wealth is easy example
US economy is estimated to be 50 trillion dollars annually, if the USA has a 7% growth rate
that equals 3.5 trillion in growth or adding wealth larger than the whole Chinese economy annually at that rate, it could also be reverse with negative growth like it is currently and in recessions, also US debt has not be factored into this.
The USA economy is about $ 13-14 trillions!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

They have never grown at more than 5 % in the last several decades. In fact 3% is considered a good growth rate in a mature economy like the USA.

The relative gap between the G8 countries and the BRIC countries is closing fast as you can see in the graphs I posted earlier.
 

johnee

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LF,
so vinod is right. each couple will then have two set of old parents to take care of besides their child.
 

Vinod2070

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Vinod, there is no proper social safety net for the chinese unlike western economies. That is one of the reason for the high saving rates in China and far less domestic consumption compared to other countries.
Well I need to check this again. I do remember reading something to the effect that they have a social security system for the old. Don't racall the source though.
 

johnee

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vinod,
wat about europe? europe seems to be most hard hit with recession and they dont have much scope to recover without unkil's help, so wats their future?
 
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The USA economy is about $ 13-14 trillions!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

They have never grown at more than 5 % in the last several decades. In fact 3% is considered a good growth rate in a mature economy like the USA.

The relative gap between the G8 countries and the BRIC countries is closing fast as you can see in the graphs I posted earlier.

ok Vinod going by the GDP numbers you have given 14 trillion with a 5% growth rate
would equal 700 billion in added growth (excluding the asset growth that goes with this number value of stocks or house prices) and you are adding growth that is larger than all the GDP of saudi arabia (600 billion) will all their oil exports. Use asset growth like i originally did and you multiply this number many times.
 

Vinod2070

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vinod,
wat about europe? europe seems to be most hard hit with recession and they dont have much scope to recover without unkil's help, so wats their future?
AFAIK, Europe's share of the world economy will keep on shrinking at a rate faster than the USA. They are effected by the greying population to a bigger extent and are not able to mitigate that by attracting qualified migrants at the same rate as the USA.

Some European economies may well hold their own but their relative economic and military power is sure to decline going forward.
 

Flint

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why is india's future so interwoven with dynasty's future?

anyway, I dont share your pessimism. to think that only a PhD can take india forward is illogical. was indira well educated? but she did her job when needed and died when needed. india is a land of destiny. things just happen, no one plans them.
just like indian team gets a dhoni, when the time comes we will get our leader to make india the SUPERPOWER. (sorry for the rhetoric).:Laie_57:
No he doesn't have to be a Phd. but a college degree would be useful while governing the (almost) biggest and most diverse country on the planet don't you think?

Rite, well I don't believe in destiny even though They say that India works "ram bharose" and all that. But frankly we'll need more than the combined efforts of our million gods if we are to get somewhere. There's a limit to how much our tenacious entrepreneurs can achieve in the face of terrible corruption and lack of basic infrastructure.

IMO we should start by trying to reforming agriculture - which is the most backward part of our economy, the most neglected, and the most difficult to modernize, all at the same time. Why? because reforming agriculture takes mass movement and sacrifice, and none of our netas have the vision to do what is necessary. They would rather distribute free electricity (which is really never there) and TV sets while our productivity suffers.

Though I must say Modi has been doing what appears to be a stellar job in improving agriculture in his state.
 

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