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I want to say that India will surpass China.
Although India was affected by the last economic crisis, after stabilization, its economic growth rate surpassed that of China and was considered the most likely country to surpass that of China. In fact, the quality and efficiency of India's economic growth are better. For example, although India's savings are only half of China's, and only 10% of China's foreign direct investment flows into India every year. India lags behind China in infrastructure construction for about 10 to 15 years, its economic growth is faster. More than 30% to 40% of GDP comes from productivity growth, not capital or labor growth.
Compared with China, India has certain advantages in many aspects:
(1) The area of cultivated land. China has 128.2 million hectares of arable land, with a per capita arable land area of 0.101 hectares, ranking fourth in the world. India has the largest arable land in the world, with about 160 million hectares of arable land, far more than China. At present, only one tenth of China's arable land is available. Compared with 55% of the total arable land in India, the per capita arable land in India is more than twice that in China. So India basically doesn't have to worry about food.
(2) Software industry. India's software industry is booming, with one of the best in the world. India currently has a large number of software talents and professionals. Output value accounts for a large proportion of exports. According to McKinsey's report, India's IT services and logistics will employ 4 million workers in 2018, making India an export industry of $57 billion a year, accounting for 7% of India's GDP. In contrast, the development of China's software industry started relatively late and there is a big gap.
(3) Financial institutions. India's financial system is functioning well and the proportion of non-performing loans is very low. The non-performing loan rate of commercial banks is only 10.8%. The Indian stock market is relatively mature and has become an important place for Indian companies to raise funds.
(4) Population advantage. Data show that in a few years, India will overtake China as the world's most populous country. This is not the main thing, mainly because the proportion of young people in India is much higher than that in China. Every year, at least 10 million people are employed, most of them young people around the age of 18. Low labor costs have become a major advantage of Indian manufacturing. Compared with China, India's population advantage may be highlighted in the next few years, while China's aging trend is accelerating.
(5) Enterprise system. India's private capital has accumulated rich experience in its operation. After India's independence, the private consortia that existed in the past have further developed, and a large number of new private consortia have emerged. After India's economic reform, a large number of private or private consortia engaged in IT industry, pharmaceutical industry, food processing industry, garment industry and textile industry, cement construction industry and hotel industry developed rapidly, and soon entered into global operation. India's modern enterprise system is relatively perfect and its enterprise management level is relatively high. For example, India's Tata Group's acquisition of Jaguar Land Rover is a very good example.
(6) Internationalization of talent and education. India has more international talent exchanges than China. Thanks to the popularity of Indian English and the popularization of College English teaching language, Indian college students can successfully obtain important information about the development of science and technology in the world, and it is also conducive to the exchange between Indian students and international elites. Indian university education attaches great importance to innovative education, and students have strong innovative ability. Some Indian universities and professional colleges have gained high international prestige. India has many top 500 CEOs with strong talent.
(7) 80% of Hindus believe in Hinduism. Therefore, Indians pay more attention to spiritual life. India's belief in social stability is good. Indians are generally but like Gandhi, he opposes British colonialism and advocates "no resistance". Successive Indian governments have had some problems, but there will be no social chaos.
(8) Legal system. India's legal system is sound. After India's independence, the legal system has gradually improved, and the public's legal awareness has gradually increased, providing legal protection for the development of market economy. Market economy is a legalized economy. Without sound legal system, the development of market economy can not be realized. Its legal origin is the law of the United Kingdom, enabling India to better incorporate the law into the international community.
(9) Infrastructure. India's social infrastructure lags behind China for decades, which is also the main bottleneck of India's economic development. However, with India's development, these infrastructure investments will further promote India's economic development.
(10) Military exchanges. Although China has always said that India's weapons are a "universal brand", you can not deny that if India can turn these products into its own military industry, India's overall military strength will be greatly enhanced. Even now, India's military procurement and cooperation are easier than China's. China can only manufacture by itself, lacks international cooperation and can not absorb advanced international experience.
To sum up, there are reasons why India is will more developed than China before 2030. India is a country full of magic, just like Bollywood.
Wish India will have a bright future.
Although India was affected by the last economic crisis, after stabilization, its economic growth rate surpassed that of China and was considered the most likely country to surpass that of China. In fact, the quality and efficiency of India's economic growth are better. For example, although India's savings are only half of China's, and only 10% of China's foreign direct investment flows into India every year. India lags behind China in infrastructure construction for about 10 to 15 years, its economic growth is faster. More than 30% to 40% of GDP comes from productivity growth, not capital or labor growth.
Compared with China, India has certain advantages in many aspects:
(1) The area of cultivated land. China has 128.2 million hectares of arable land, with a per capita arable land area of 0.101 hectares, ranking fourth in the world. India has the largest arable land in the world, with about 160 million hectares of arable land, far more than China. At present, only one tenth of China's arable land is available. Compared with 55% of the total arable land in India, the per capita arable land in India is more than twice that in China. So India basically doesn't have to worry about food.
(2) Software industry. India's software industry is booming, with one of the best in the world. India currently has a large number of software talents and professionals. Output value accounts for a large proportion of exports. According to McKinsey's report, India's IT services and logistics will employ 4 million workers in 2018, making India an export industry of $57 billion a year, accounting for 7% of India's GDP. In contrast, the development of China's software industry started relatively late and there is a big gap.
(3) Financial institutions. India's financial system is functioning well and the proportion of non-performing loans is very low. The non-performing loan rate of commercial banks is only 10.8%. The Indian stock market is relatively mature and has become an important place for Indian companies to raise funds.
(4) Population advantage. Data show that in a few years, India will overtake China as the world's most populous country. This is not the main thing, mainly because the proportion of young people in India is much higher than that in China. Every year, at least 10 million people are employed, most of them young people around the age of 18. Low labor costs have become a major advantage of Indian manufacturing. Compared with China, India's population advantage may be highlighted in the next few years, while China's aging trend is accelerating.
(5) Enterprise system. India's private capital has accumulated rich experience in its operation. After India's independence, the private consortia that existed in the past have further developed, and a large number of new private consortia have emerged. After India's economic reform, a large number of private or private consortia engaged in IT industry, pharmaceutical industry, food processing industry, garment industry and textile industry, cement construction industry and hotel industry developed rapidly, and soon entered into global operation. India's modern enterprise system is relatively perfect and its enterprise management level is relatively high. For example, India's Tata Group's acquisition of Jaguar Land Rover is a very good example.
(6) Internationalization of talent and education. India has more international talent exchanges than China. Thanks to the popularity of Indian English and the popularization of College English teaching language, Indian college students can successfully obtain important information about the development of science and technology in the world, and it is also conducive to the exchange between Indian students and international elites. Indian university education attaches great importance to innovative education, and students have strong innovative ability. Some Indian universities and professional colleges have gained high international prestige. India has many top 500 CEOs with strong talent.
(7) 80% of Hindus believe in Hinduism. Therefore, Indians pay more attention to spiritual life. India's belief in social stability is good. Indians are generally but like Gandhi, he opposes British colonialism and advocates "no resistance". Successive Indian governments have had some problems, but there will be no social chaos.
(8) Legal system. India's legal system is sound. After India's independence, the legal system has gradually improved, and the public's legal awareness has gradually increased, providing legal protection for the development of market economy. Market economy is a legalized economy. Without sound legal system, the development of market economy can not be realized. Its legal origin is the law of the United Kingdom, enabling India to better incorporate the law into the international community.
(9) Infrastructure. India's social infrastructure lags behind China for decades, which is also the main bottleneck of India's economic development. However, with India's development, these infrastructure investments will further promote India's economic development.
(10) Military exchanges. Although China has always said that India's weapons are a "universal brand", you can not deny that if India can turn these products into its own military industry, India's overall military strength will be greatly enhanced. Even now, India's military procurement and cooperation are easier than China's. China can only manufacture by itself, lacks international cooperation and can not absorb advanced international experience.
To sum up, there are reasons why India is will more developed than China before 2030. India is a country full of magic, just like Bollywood.
Wish India will have a bright future.
