What is the real population of Muslims in India? In your state?

Rango

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With the 2021 Census delays and with the tens of millions of Bangladeshis (including both Muslims and Hindus) who have come into the country over the past 75 years, we always read that India's Muslim population is underestimated. I agree, though I am skeptical that the error is more than 10-20 million.

The 2011 census had Muslims at 14.2% of India's population, equivalent to 172 million people. Assuming 10 million undercounted Bangladeshi Muslim immigrants (plus census errors), I would guess the real share at the time to be 15%.

Each decade, the Muslim share goes up by 0.74%, if you believe all the past once-a-decade census results.

So I would expect the "real" Muslim share to be 16% in 2023. Equivalent to 227 million people.

Some people throw around even higher numbers.

Does anyone who travels around his/her state have a good idea of what is happening on the ground? Is the national Muslim birth rate really around 2.3 today as advertised?

Does anyone work in a large government institution and can gauge some local estimates? e.g., if you (or a relative) work in the Aadhar card department, or railway, or post office, or hospital, or tax office, or visa office etc...
 

Swesh

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With the 2021 Census delays and with the tens of millions of Bangladeshis (including both Muslims and Hindus) who have come into the country over the past 75 years, we always read that India's Muslim population is underestimated. I agree, though I am skeptical that the error is more than 10-20 million.

The 2011 census had Muslims at 14.2% of India's population, equivalent to 172 million people. Assuming 10 million undercounted Bangladeshi Muslim immigrants (plus census errors), I would guess the real share at the time to be 15%.

Each decade, the Muslim share goes up by 0.74%, if you believe all the past once-a-decade census results.

So I would expect the "real" Muslim share to be 16% in 2023. Equivalent to 227 million people.

Some people throw around even higher numbers.

Does anyone who travels around his/her state have a good idea of what is happening on the ground? Is the national Muslim birth rate really around 2.3 today as advertised?

Does anyone work in a large government institution and can gauge some local estimates? e.g., if you (or a relative) work in the Aadhar card department, or railway, or post office, or hospital, or tax office, or visa office etc...
States cooperation are predominant in census exercise many states openly resist census on population of Muslim also threatening to abridge data
 

Coalmine

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In almost every state muslims are 25 percent or more , How come they are 15-16% of India. Even district wise weighted average will give more than 25%
 

Swesh

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In almost every state muslims are 25 percent or more , How come they are 15-16% of India. Even district wise weighted average will give more than 25%
Is that estimate or based on 2011 census
 

Rango

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In almost every state muslims are 25 percent or more , How come they are 15-16% of India. Even district wise weighted average will give more than 25%
This is not true whatsoever. Below are the 2011 census figures by state. Only 5 out of 35 states at over 25% Muslim. And Lakshadweep's population is way too small to count. I doubt that any other states have crossed 25% as of 2023. Perhaps UP might have hit 20%.


I am sure we underestimate the Muslim population total by the millions in Assam, West Bengal and all of the large cities where they congregate. So the Census is undercounting Muslims. However, it is impossible that we underestimate them by 150 million to get to the "more than 25%" national share.

I remember reading the names of the people who died in various natural disasters in recent years, and over 80 percent always seemed to be Hindus.

The percent share of Muslims in the army, police force, colleges/universities, parliament, ambassador list, richest list etc... are all below 5%. When I see the leadership of all the large Indian companies, the Muslim share is rarely above 5%. The founders of virtually all the Unicorns are non-Muslim. Same across India Inc.


So you would think that Muslims would at least be overrepresented in rural data? However. if you believe the stats, 85 percent of rural landowners in 2014 were Hindus (Muslims were 11 percent):


Basically, Muslim women are just not working and are instead reproducing close to 3 per family. But does that mean that we are undercounting them by more than 10 million? I seriously hope not.
 
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nongaddarliberal

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Sanjay Dixit from Jaipur dialogues has repeatedly said that during his time in the IAS, a common pattern he saw was Muslims exaggerating their numbers in any local census to get more benefits for their community and area. According to him, the official estimates of muslims is around 15% higher than the actual number of muslims. I just hope it's true.
 

Rango

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Kashmir seems like good news:


If only we had real data on Bangladeshi Muslim migrants from the past 50 years.
 

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