What if the American decline never happens?

[W.G.Ewald]

The problem with the US decline is not an economic issue its a political issue.
You have some really polarized divisions and a very inefficient Presidential system that comes in the way of special interest groups.

That inefficient system may prevent the politicians doing more damage than they already do.

I think there is a lesson for those who think a two-party only Presidential system is the best political system too. It seems now that a multiparty parliamentary system is the way to go. But that looks like a topic for another thread.

Another thread in another forum perhaps. Our "system" is a republic, and as far as I know the US Constitution does not limit the number of political parties.

 

[The Messiah]

First of who ever said that America is going to decline obviously has some biased towards it, America is not going to decline all we are going to see is the Rise of Europe. This economic slow down will not effect their long term monopoly on power.

Will you always remain a pessimist ?

Power will not remain with west and of that there is no about. Give it another 50 years.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

Will you always remain a pessimist ?

Power will not remain with west and of that there is no about. Give it another 50 years.

Well not a pessimist, for an American i may be an optimist, also I am looking at History here. The Roman empire lasted for a 800years, the Greeks before them atleast 500years, the British lasted for 200years and even Maurya lasted for 180years, India as power lasted for well over 2,000 years with very powerful and rich empires. This is history, the USA is hardly 80years old as a Super power, the courage, grit and character of the country is very intact, what makes an nation is its heart. USA still has an very competative culture and i dont see such a people go down the drain.

Power is not divinely ordained or distributed by some "Wheel of Law" where it grants power equally to every civilization for a certain duration, then it declines. Although everything is cyclic, i can not read anything in the spokes of time, i dont see the required disillusionment of Character we saw in the Soviet Union or the lack of grit that we see in certain nations. So if i see some signs of weakness that i can read then i will change my mind till then all this ups and downs dont matter in anyway, this is not even as serious as the Great depression of the 1920s.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Power will not remain with west and of that there is no about. Give it another 50 years.

I don't have that much time, but God willing I would like to live long enough to see the US military garrisons removed from Europe, Japan, and South Korea.

 

[The Messiah]

Well not a pessimist, for an American i may be an optimist, also I am looking at History here. The Roman empire lasted for a 800years, the Greeks before them atleast 500years, the British lasted for 200years and even Maurya lasted for 180years, India as power lasted for well over 2,000 years with very powerful and rich empires. This is history, the USA is hardly 80years old as a Super power, the courage, grit and character of the country is very intact, what makes an nation is its heart. USA still has an very competative culture and i dont see such a people go down the drain.

Power is not divinely ordained or distributed by some "Wheel of Law" where it grants power equally to every civilization for a certain duration, then it declines. Although everything is cyclic, i can not read anything in the spokes of time, i dont see the required disillusionment of Character we saw in the Soviet Union or the lack of grit that we see in certain nations. So if i see some signs of weakness that i can read then i will change my mind till then all this ups and downs dont matter in anyway, this is not even as serious as the Great depression of the 1920s.

Your calculations are flawed because they're decline will not only be because of there own mistakes or shortcomings but also because of the rise of other countries. You only need to see what there position was in the 90's and what it is now ? I dont know about you but they were in a far better position then than they are now.

As you have already listed the empires of the past and how long they lasted so it is clear that usa will be nothing compared to them (timeframe). Its not even been a century and they are already in decline. Not to mention that ussr was ahead of them intitially after ww2, they could have rolled europe. In the 1920's large parts of the world were worse off and power was in europe, with japan being a sole exception. If we straighten up our act and china continues its path then there power will only further decline. It is not if but when they will not be superpower.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

Your calculations are flawed because they're decline will not only be because of there own mistakes or shortcomings but also because of the rise of other countries. You only need to see what there position was in the 90's and what it is now ? I dont know about you but they were in a far better position then than they are now.

As you have already listed the empires of the past and how long they lasted so it is clear that usa will be nothing compared to them (timeframe). Its not even been a century and they are already in decline. Not to mention that ussr was ahead of them intitially after ww2, they could have rolled europe. If we straighten up our act and china continues its path then there power will only further decline. It is not if but when they will not be superpower.

Well the problem here is you dont bring up any statistics, logic or rationality for me to compare and change my mind, on what am i supposed to base you facts, just on your posts and good will? In the 90s their economy was down for a brief while and later it recovered very well under Clinton, the ups and downs of economy is cyclic, tradeing goes down due to various factors working on an economy.

When you say other powers what other powers? Only China? The USA did not go down when USSR was there or Japan was competing economically, there is always room for China to rise with out USA getting destroyed. Tell me something that i can compare and change my mind, i cant merely change my mind on blind assertions cant i?

 

[bengalraider]

Let this Oil boom come true then we'll know. I think this shale oil stuff is being exaggerated too much. There other big hype is Gas hydrates.

Where again the Americans presumably will rule

 

[civfanatic]

First of who ever said that America is going to decline obviously has some biased towards it, America is not going to decline all we are going to see is the Rise of Europe. This economic slow down will not effect their long term monopoly on power.

Rise of Europe? Their time in the sun was over long ago. Today they are the sick man of the World.

Well not a pessimist, for an American i may be an optimist, also I am looking at History here. The Roman empire lasted for a 800years, the Greeks before them atleast 500years, the British lasted for 200years and even Maurya lasted for 180years, India as power lasted for well over 2,000 years with very powerful and rich empires. This is history, the USA is hardly 80years old as a Super power, the courage, grit and character of the country is very intact, what makes an nation is its heart. USA still has an very competative culture and i dont see such a people go down the drain.

Power is not divinely ordained or distributed by some "Wheel of Law" where it grants power equally to every civilization for a certain duration, then it declines. Although everything is cyclic, i can not read anything in the spokes of time, i dont see the required disillusionment of Character we saw in the Soviet Union or the lack of grit that we see in certain nations. So if i see some signs of weakness that i can read then i will change my mind till then all this ups and downs dont matter in anyway, this is not even as serious as the Great depression of the 1920s.

U.S. share of global GDP has been steadily decreasing over the past couple decades, which is a remarkable reversal from the trend that had been continuing since America's independence. America's "decline" is not caused primarily by any sort of social or economic exhaustion in America itself, but by the the admirable efforts of some countries (notably the BRICs) in catching up. The global economic situation today is similar to the situation in the late 16th century, when Western Europe began to grow faster than the traditional economic powerhouses (India and China). Today the roles of the West and East are reversed.

 

[agentperry]

usa is constantly in war for last 2 decades. gulf war1, gulf war2, afghan war.
after vietnam war usa was in very bad shape and it took many years to come out of it. drug abuse rose to level high( even now war on drug is drawing lots of money from american coffer). whole youth got disturbed, dislocated and destroyed. not until the dot com boom they were encouraged to come out of lowliness into full mood to compete.
give usa some time. not an year or two but a decade atleast to rebuild their society. war is not a great thing to do afterall.

 

[sandeepdg]

Well, I won't take sides here. But I think the world is big enough to accommodate the US and aspirations of wannabe superpowers like India, China, Russia, EU etc. Anybody who thinks other wise is pretty short sighted.

 

[Yusuf]

AP, the US has been at war for the last 100 years starting with WWI. itsa very sound strategy they have. War means weapons means production means jobs means consumption etc. It's a chain reaction for them.

The best thing about them being at war is constant innovation and testing of latest weapons system that no one else has. All their weapons are war tested and ready. Should they have to face another great war, they will be more than ahead of the enemy.

 

[Tianshan]

U.S. share of global GDP has been steadily decreasing over the past couple decades, which is a remarkable reversal from the trend that had been continuing since America's independence. America's "decline" is not caused primarily by any sort of social or economic exhaustion in America itself, but by the the admirable efforts of some countries (notably the BRICs) in catching up. The global economic situation today is similar to the situation in the late 16th century, when Western Europe began to grow faster than the traditional economic powerhouses (India and China). Today the roles of the West and East are reversed.

this seems most correct.

usa is not declining in absolute terms. just that BRICS are rising.

 

[OsloInd]

Well, most probably we are gonna have a multi polar world in any case.

 

[civfanatic]

AP, the US has been at war for the last 100 years starting with WWI. itsa very sound strategy they have. War means weapons means production means jobs means consumption etc. It's a chain reaction for them.

The best thing about them being at war is constant innovation and testing of latest weapons system that no one else has. All their weapons are war tested and ready. Should they have to face another great war, they will be more than ahead of the enemy.

I agree that it is a "sound strategy" from a purely economic standpoint, but do you think India and China and other great power wannabes should follow a similar strategy?

Personally I do not want India to ever be engaged global in warmongering.

 

[Yusuf]

I agree that it is a "sound strategy" from a purely economic standpoint, but do you think India and China and other great power wannabes should follow a similar strategy?

Personally I do not want India to ever be engaged global in warmongering.

No I don't see india doing this. Too much of as they say "raja harishchandra" attitude here. China yes and we are seeing all the making of it.

 

[The Messiah]

I agree that it is a "sound strategy" from a purely economic standpoint, but do you think India and China and other great power wannabes should follow a similar strategy?

Personally I do not want India to ever be engaged global in warmongering.

I'd want India to rule the entire world by conquest. But then again im a docile secularist according to chest thumpers.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

AP, the US has been at war for the last 100 years starting with WWI. itsa very sound strategy they have. War means weapons means production means jobs means consumption etc. It's a chain reaction for them.

The best thing about them being at war is constant innovation and testing of latest weapons system that no one else has. All their weapons are war tested and ready. Should they have to face another great war, they will be more than ahead of the enemy.

I believe history shows that most wars that the United States have been drawn outside of its borders into are the result of treaties. I believe the American people do not pay enough attention to those treaties, made by diplomats and politicians.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

Rise of Europe? Their time in the sun was over long ago. Today they are the sick man of the World.

Civ, Some times the Sun takes longer than our petty life time to set, i to would like to see the Sun set on any hegemony but i am never that egoistic or impatient to expect it to set in my life time, that is not how you see things unbiasedly. Individual European countries have definitely faded and i dont argue against that, they to realize that and that is why they are uniting. However an Europe united is definately a large force bigger than China or India or BRIC. The most important thing i see is Character and Bravery, Indians lack it, i spent whole hour watching NDTV with a Kashmire thug being impressed and entertained by a cowardly crowd and anchor who wont ask the tough questions to him, i would have left that bastard speechless as i do with most muslims who debate me. Why in the HELL no one had the guts to ask him why he wants separation in the first place and start hammering his NOBLE speration idea from there? In USA or europe they have the courage to ask, these ******s dont. Sorry if i went offtopic but it is only an example you should look into.

U.S. share of global GDP has been steadily decreasing over the past couple decades, which is a remarkable reversal from the trend that had been continuing since America's independence. America's "decline" is not caused primarily by any sort of social or economic exhaustion in America itself, but by the the admirable efforts of some countries (notably the BRICs) in catching up. The global economic situation today is similar to the situation in the late 16th century, when Western Europe began to grow faster than the traditional economic powerhouses (India and China). Today the roles of the West and East are reversed.

I agree there Growth has slowed down but that always happens, slowing down only means they will restart the engines soon. They will use their advantage in the field of technology to always be ahead, for example we cant make one jet engine and they are already pushed their thrust of their fighter engine to 120kN when we have only hit 75kN that to with a lot of fuel consumption to reach that thrust. All this only shows it is the CULTURE that is important and not the people, humans have the same brains every where in the world its the soft ware that creates the diffrence. So i dont see them ever expecting an life style of an third world nation.


That said i also agree there will be powers to challenge them like BRIC but they will never be that strong.

 

[sandeepdg]

However an Europe united is definately a large force bigger than China or India or BRIC.
That said i also agree there will be powers to challenge them like BRIC but they will never be that strong.

Europe is bigger force today than BRICS, but it won't be so for long. Rather, individual countries will grow more stronger, I believe like France and Germany, and UK will just manage itself as it is doing today.

Going by economic statistics alone, economies of BRICS nations would eclipse the combined economic might of Europe and militarily as well by say, 2030-40. Even today, Russia today has adequate military resources to tackle whatever Europe can put up militarily, and Russia is only growing, European powers ain't, except France and Germany. Add to that the military might of India, China, Brazil and Europe is left with no option than to fall back on the Americans. Even China will be able to eclipse European powers military in the next 20-30 years.

All the force that NATO is today, has more to do with just one country alone: USA !

That said, I will again say that the world will be more multipolar in the next 2-3 decades than the past 100 years, and I believe that's much better than a bipolar or unipolar world, since this world is big enough to accommodate the aspirations and egos of all these present and future powers.

 

[civfanatic]

Europe will never be politically united. If even the threat of the USSR in the Cold War did not result in a European Confederation, what can?

There are too many dividing lines, whether they be national, ethnic, linguistic, socioeconomic, etc.