USA China Cold War

Hari Sud

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US Runs to Defend Taiwan when China Invades

The Chinese are overly confident about their economy as well as their military prowess. They forget that all they have is given to them by the US either directly as trillion dollars FDI or copied/ reverse engineering Western/ Russian military technology. The West had hoped that they will back stab Soviets/Russia. That did not happen. Instead, they are threatening US strategic interests.

Suppose the Chinese attack Taiwan?

It is a tiny island only 80 miles away from the mainland Chinese coast. This they should be able to capture easily with their newly built naval force and attack mode positioned marines and other military assets. This they are unable to do it for the last 70 years. They even recently made preparations to attack the island during Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Again, they backed off. Therefore, why are they pulling back? Three points come to mind:

1. China's massive trade exports to the west will be at risk.

2. The Chinese win is almost impossible with heavily armed and trained Taiwanese defence forces.

3. Major destructions of the Chinese armed forces in the sea and the coast, in front of Taiwan will occur, when U.S. comes to Taiwan’s defence.

In addition, the Chinese over-confidence with copied and reverse engineered weapons is unlikely to correspond to the US armed forces. US defenses from Guam, Philippines and other tiny U.S. occupied islands, will overwhelm Chinese defenses. The use of nuclear weapons and long- and medium-range missiles by China will be counter-productive because the United States can counter them easily.

Therefore, will the Chinese fight a full war with the United States in defence of Taiwan? This is very unlikely. They will intimidate; they will appear to start a fight, but retreat at the twelfth hour. They value their exports more than Taiwan. The status of Taiwan, they will keep it alive to intimidate neighbours.
 

dfcool

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Looks like South china sea is lost cause for ASEAN countries, Chinis built artificial military islands and warning anyone dare to enter

 

ezsasa

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Looks like South china sea is lost cause for ASEAN countries, Chinis built artificial military islands and warning anyone dare to enter

as and when full scale escalation happens, these islands will be wiped out within the first week.
 

dfcool

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as and when full scale escalation happens, these islands will be wiped out within the first week.
True but chinese are celever, thats why they turning these islands into civilian-military place with hospitals, malls, civilan airplanes, marriages, new chinese babies (this will give legitimacy). I really doubt US will shoot missiles when they find large number of civilian people on the ground.
 
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Blademaster

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True but chinese are celever, thats why they turning these islands into civilian-military place with hospitals, malls, civilan airplanes, marriages, new chinese babies (this will give legitimacy). I really doubt US will shoot missiles when they find large number of civilian people on the ground.
They will have a hard time finding people willing to go out there and live there. It's pretty desolate and not very accommodating.
 

ezsasa

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Singapore continues to play both sides, it's only a matter of time before countries will have no choice but to pick a side, especially in east asia.
========
Happy to meet Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing tdy. Singapore & China upgraded our ties & concluded the China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement Subsequent Negotiations.

 

dfcool

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will have no choice but to pick a side
beg to differ, SIngapore is switzerland of asia. They will stay neutral in all upcoming conflicts. They also know the importance of their geography and damage it will cause to their country if they get involved.

So they give navigation access to both parties but never get involved at least as per their current geostrategists.

More importantly China is not occuping singapore. US is not going to pressure singapore to join Indo-pacific front, US has SK, japan, pinoys.
 
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ezsasa

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beg to differ, SIngapore is switzerland of asia. They will stay neutral in all upcoming conflicts. They also know the importance of their geography and damage it will cause to their country if they get involved.

So they give navigation access to both parties but never get involved at least as per their current geostrategists.

More importantly China is not occuping singapore. US is not going to pressure singapore to join Indo-pacific front, US has SK, japan, pinoys.
the scenario i had in mind was:

strategic location of singapore will come into play, when competition has moved beyond sea of japan and south china sea , and has come further south to the mouth of strait of Malacca. here in this scenario, U.S will be in defensive role and chini navy will be in offensive role to get access to malacca straits.

will chini not pressure on singapore to pick a side, to not supply murican navy?
 

Blademaster

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I think China will occupy Singapore by engineering a color revolution or something and get the government of Singapore to grant basing rights and keep India out.
 

Sayman Ame

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I think China will occupy Singapore by engineering a color revolution or something and get the government of Singapore to grant basing rights and keep India out.


Singaporeans have a good lot of anti-CCP sentiments despite having a substantial lot of Chinese. These guys don't sympathize with the dictators on Mainland, and there might be a good few closet CCP shill in the population. Otherwise, there's no love lost for China in Singapore. The above issue happened on Lunar New Year, which a Chinese extremist renamed as "Chinese" New Year on a University board (China considers it its own festival, while Malay,Singapore and Korea say otherwise). Reddit users seem to have fumed, and though I can;t find it, I remember reading that even officials in Singapore were miffed at the incident and had given statements severely condemning the vandalism.
So, yeah, I don't think they can pull off a color revolution as such.
 

Jimih

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any interesting critical commentary to read from U.S on macron's visit?
Signs are ominous as I see.


This was when Macron visited Putin in Russia:
Screenshot_20230408-212120-1-1.png




And the event followed after that:
Screenshot_20230408-212310-1.png




I don't think Macron was in China on the topic of Ukraine only.

Things can go south quickly vis-a-vis Taiwan-China in coming days. Macron may be there as a messenger of US as he was in Russia last year before Russia's SMO in Ukraine.




"Sending US troops to Taiwan is on the table if China invades." Statement from Michael McCaul, chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee.

 

ezsasa

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