Has China backed down after its angry display of missile firing over Taiwan or is it risking a shooting war? The American position is very clear; that is, in-spite of highly incompetence of Biden Administration, America will defend Taiwan. With that in mind, will China risk a shooting war? No they will not. It will take time before they back down. Their prestige has been hurt plus they like to protect their export market. Hence what should we see in next three months:
1. Biden will resign (health grounds). His Vice President is more incompetent than he is, hence she will be forced to resign too.
2. Nancy Pelosi as per constitution will become the president and then China watch out for this rude and strong person. No compromise will be made. That means war or China backdown.
3. Ukraine war will be over. Biden Administration and whatever is left of it will eat a humble pie.
4. Xi of China will be replaced (after Xi who?)
5. India has opportunity to recover some parts of AkasChin because Chinese focus is on China sea.
6. If US-China short shooting War begins then India can block Straits of Malacca as part QUAD effort to constrict Chinese trade and oil supplies.
7. Then US will as a matter of gratitude (blocking Straits of Malacca) or a well thought out policy may switch consumer goods manufacture from China to India and send all the FDI to build india.
7. China will be permanently dealt with with no aggression left for a generation.
Hence my wish, that this China’s anger be settled in a short sea war. That will cut China to size……… cheers