Hari Sud
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US Runs to Defend Taiwan when China Invades
The Chinese are overly confident about their economy as well as their military prowess. They forget that all they have is given to them by the US either directly as trillion dollars FDI or copied/ reverse engineering Western/ Russian military technology. The West had hoped that they will back stab Soviets/Russia. That did not happen. Instead, they are threatening US strategic interests.
Suppose the Chinese attack Taiwan?
It is a tiny island only 80 miles away from the mainland Chinese coast. This they should be able to capture easily with their newly built naval force and attack mode positioned marines and other military assets. This they are unable to do it for the last 70 years. They even recently made preparations to attack the island during Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Again, they backed off. Therefore, why are they pulling back? Three points come to mind:
1. China's massive trade exports to the west will be at risk.
2. The Chinese win is almost impossible with heavily armed and trained Taiwanese defence forces.
3. Major destructions of the Chinese armed forces in the sea and the coast, in front of Taiwan will occur, when U.S. comes to Taiwan’s defence.
In addition, the Chinese over-confidence with copied and reverse engineered weapons is unlikely to correspond to the US armed forces. US defenses from Guam, Philippines and other tiny U.S. occupied islands, will overwhelm Chinese defenses. The use of nuclear weapons and long- and medium-range missiles by China will be counter-productive because the United States can counter them easily.
Therefore, will the Chinese fight a full war with the United States in defence of Taiwan? This is very unlikely. They will intimidate; they will appear to start a fight, but retreat at the twelfth hour. They value their exports more than Taiwan. The status of Taiwan, they will keep it alive to intimidate neighbours.
The Chinese are overly confident about their economy as well as their military prowess. They forget that all they have is given to them by the US either directly as trillion dollars FDI or copied/ reverse engineering Western/ Russian military technology. The West had hoped that they will back stab Soviets/Russia. That did not happen. Instead, they are threatening US strategic interests.
Suppose the Chinese attack Taiwan?
It is a tiny island only 80 miles away from the mainland Chinese coast. This they should be able to capture easily with their newly built naval force and attack mode positioned marines and other military assets. This they are unable to do it for the last 70 years. They even recently made preparations to attack the island during Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Again, they backed off. Therefore, why are they pulling back? Three points come to mind:
1. China's massive trade exports to the west will be at risk.
2. The Chinese win is almost impossible with heavily armed and trained Taiwanese defence forces.
3. Major destructions of the Chinese armed forces in the sea and the coast, in front of Taiwan will occur, when U.S. comes to Taiwan’s defence.
In addition, the Chinese over-confidence with copied and reverse engineered weapons is unlikely to correspond to the US armed forces. US defenses from Guam, Philippines and other tiny U.S. occupied islands, will overwhelm Chinese defenses. The use of nuclear weapons and long- and medium-range missiles by China will be counter-productive because the United States can counter them easily.
Therefore, will the Chinese fight a full war with the United States in defence of Taiwan? This is very unlikely. They will intimidate; they will appear to start a fight, but retreat at the twelfth hour. They value their exports more than Taiwan. The status of Taiwan, they will keep it alive to intimidate neighbours.
