USA China Cold War

Clairvoyance

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Ukraine and Taiwan is a bad comparison. Ukraine is unimportant and produces very little of value that can't be sourced from elsewhere. Taiwan is very important for high value semiconductors that are critical for the technology driven service industry and advanced industrial components, i.e. the backbone of the US and other advanced countries economies.

Currently, only three companies produce advanced semiconductors: TSMC (Taiwan), South Korea (Samsung), and the US (Intel). Of these, TSMC is the most advanced and can produce 3 nanometer chips. Next Samsung with 5 nm and last Intel with 10 nm. All Apple and AMD processors for example use TSMC. It would be a terrible blow to the US and all anti-China countries if China were to gain Taiwan.

Ukraine's top 3 exports are seed oils, corn, and wheat.
 

Synergy

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In a hypothetical situation, if you exclude US (specifically US Navy) the outcome in favor of China is almost assured in my opinion. We can only debate the degree of damage PRC/ROC can cause each other.
In this context, the outcome in favour of China should be forceful reunification of Taiwan. Then there will be a need of huge no of Chinese boots on Taiwanese soil. Taiwan has few beaches those can be used for that purpose and undertaking an amphibious assult after crossing 130/150 km in this era of highly accurate missiles, is next to impossible. Taiwan has a large inventory of anti ship missiles including Harpoon.
 

IndianHawk

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In a hypothetical situation, if you exclude US (specifically US Navy) the outcome in favor of China is almost assured in my opinion. We can only debate the degree of damage PRC/ROC can cause each other.
China will have to ship thousands of soldiers to Taiwan to take it over . It doesn't have enough amphibious capacity to do that now. And then those ships will be shrunk. And the whole world will be supplying Taiwan with anti ship anti tank weapons. Besides US and Japan won't tolerate it because it puts china much to close to their own bases .
 

Clairvoyance

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Another important difference between Ukraine and Taiwan are the ramifications of losing them.

Only giving arms and intelligence to Ukraine was a smart move as it keeps Russia bogged down with minimal cost to the US. Even if Russia conquers its objectives, it lacks the manufacturing strength to replenish its losses and cannot pose a peer threat to NATO. The real winners of the war are the US as the loyalty of its European allies has been assured, China because it can muscle in to replace Russia in Central Asia and will likely have Russia dependend on it, the GCC because of high oil prices, and India because its troublesome neighbors are getting economically hammered. The losers are the EU, Russia, Africa and less developed countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh.

But in the case of Taiwan, the ability of the US to maintain control over the Pacific will be in question. As long as the US controls both western Europe and the western Pacific, it doesn't have to worry about a strong European or Asian country influencing the Americas. If China becomes the strongest Pacific nation, it may draw Latin American countries out of the US sphere of—just like how Japan and later the US drew Korea out of the Chinese sphere. For that reason I don't think the US response to Ukraine means anything when guaging a US response to a Taiwan crisis.

However even if China takes Taiwan (still unlikely as of now) in a blitzkrieg campaign due to Taiwan's comparatively weak military and proximity, it won't spell the end to the US presence. Rather, I think we'll see Red Scare 3.0 and the US will focus everything on an arms race with China and we may see QUAD+South Korea morphing into a concrete alliance. Basically the US will get out of its human rights, pro-liberalism mode and return to its more ruthless, Cold War style foreign policy.
 

maximus777

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No contested amphibious landing can be undertaken with impunity.
Even if the USN took it's ball and went home. PRCs best bet is a blockade.
One thing about the eastern civilizations is their persistence. PRC/ROC will go on for decades like the Koreas.
 

Sanglamorre

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Ukraine and Taiwan is a bad comparison. Ukraine is unimportant and produces very little of value that can't be sourced from elsewhere. Taiwan is very important for high value semiconductors that are critical for the technology driven service industry and advanced industrial components, i.e. the backbone of the US and other advanced countries economies.

Currently, only three companies produce advanced semiconductors: TSMC (Taiwan), South Korea (Samsung), and the US (Intel). Of these, TSMC is the most advanced and can produce 3 nanometer chips. Next Samsung with 5 nm and last Intel with 10 nm. All Apple and AMD processors for example use TSMC. It would be a terrible blow to the US and all anti-China countries if China were to gain Taiwan.

Ukraine's top 3 exports are seed oils, corn, and wheat.
Samsung chips are becoming lol. For example, the Snapdragon 888 and 8 gen 1 were produced in Samsung foundries after having being produced till then by TSMC.

Result? Those two chips are inefficient, produce too much heat to be useful and crap. Same problems as Samsung's own Exynos chips. Hell, even Samsung uses TSMC Snapdragons for their flagships.

There's only really TSMC that can fulfill many needs.
 

Blademaster

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In this context, the outcome in favour of China should be forceful reunification of Taiwan. Then there will be a need of huge no of Chinese boots on Taiwanese soil. Taiwan has few beaches those can be used for that purpose and undertaking an amphibious assult after crossing 130/150 km in this era of highly accurate missiles, is next to impossible. Taiwan has a large inventory of anti ship missiles including Harpoon.
not only anti ship missiles but accurate artillery and rockets on the order of Excalibur and HIMARS. Taiwan artillery just need to saturate the areas that the Chinese landing boats would be crossing and Chinese counterbattery teams won't be able to take them out.
 

prasadr14

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Now this is pulling a Zelenskiy! Bravado is good, but unless US gets fully involved like in Vietnam or Korea, ROC is finished. CCP/PLA will probably take murderous losses, but if "she" makes up his mind, then there is no stopping.
Depends on the objective.

China can bomb Taiwan to stone age & can absorb the retaliation coming it's way from Taiwan. That would finish Taiwan, it's people and China story. There won't be any western nation that would do business with China for next 100 years.

If China wants to occupy Taiwan by putting boots on the ground, it needs to look at the fact that occupying forces have not won a war in a long time. China will not the first exception in decades.
Even Russia is struggling with supply issues over flat terrain to maintain it's war machine & this is after the fact many of the provinces it occupied has Russian supporters in Ukraine.

There will no Taiwanese that would welcome the Chinese military. Any Chinese boots on the ground will not be making it back to mainland. The supply chain issues for China will be significant since they will need cross what will by then by a very treacherous bay and skies.

Can China bomb Taiwan? sure but thats not winning them any war & the bill that follows that action will most certainly be curtains for China story for a century at least.
 

maximus777

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Depends on the objective.

China can bomb Taiwan to stone age & can absorb the retaliation coming it's way from Taiwan. That would finish Taiwan, it's people and China story. There won't be any western nation that would do business with China for next 100 years.

If China wants to occupy Taiwan by putting boots on the ground, it needs to look at the fact that occupying forces have not won a war in a long time. China will not the first exception in decades.
Even Russia is struggling with supply issues over flat terrain to maintain it's war machine & this is after the fact many of the provinces it occupied has Russian supporters in Ukraine.

There will no Taiwanese that would welcome the Chinese military. Any Chinese boots on the ground will not be making it back to mainland. The supply chain issues for China will be significant since they will need cross what will by then by a very treacherous bay and skies.

Can China bomb Taiwan? sure but thats not winning them any war & the bill that follows that action will most certainly be curtains for China story for a century at least.
Not a fan/supporter of PRC by a long stretch, but they can copy and manufacture the hell out of anything. So assuming there is no shortage of BM, CM, rockets and arty shells, ROC would look like Chechnya - reduced to a rubble with or without PLA boots on ground. While ROC can still flaunt their freedom card, not sure what good is freedom when your country is wiped out. Once this happens, NATO and the West will soon abandon ROC since there is no incentive to stay involved without the chip fabs. US MIC will sell a bunch of weapons to India/SE Asia and will move on to the next conflict.
 

prasadr14

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Not a fan/supporter of PRC by a long stretch, but they can copy and manufacture the hell out of anything. So assuming there is no shortage of BM, CM, rockets and arty shells, ROC would look like Chechnya - reduced to a rubble with or without PLA boots on ground. While ROC can still flaunt their freedom card, not sure what good is freedom when your country is wiped out. Once this happens, NATO and the West will soon abandon ROC since what good is it without the fabs?
I certainly agree that China can reduce Taiwan to a rubble
but
that is not winning them the war or Taiwanese territory or people.

What follows after that for China will be a world that will be reluctant to do any business with them. They will probably have Russia and North Korea as their trading partners left.
 

NutCracker

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This is not good.

The US is not getting what it wants from India, thats why you see the muslim brotherhood getting involved in India.

Does the US need India? yes, very much, but are its needs possible with current govt? nope. The CIA clowns are upto something in India & you can actually see major aryas indirect hints from this video.

LoL Nah...
It's foolish if CIA thinks that congi govt will be serious about fighting China or retaking Aksai Chin..
 

srevster

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As I said, the exercises are a feint. They plan to invade. It’s the same pattern of what they did in Ladakh. It starts with a 3 day exercise, which is now a 15 day exercise and that becomes the new normal.

it’s so obvious if you do pattern recognition and apply that prediction to their future actions.
 

maximus777

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I certainly agree that China can reduce Taiwan to a rubble
but
that is not winning them the war or Taiwanese territory or people.

What follows after that for China will be a world that will be reluctant to do any business with them. They will probably have Russia and North Korea as their trading partners left.
If Covid is any indicator, after a brief blip everything will be back to normal with CCP. Corporate profits override everything - even the millions of lives lost during the pandemic! Heck, CCP even supplied PPE suits and masks and probably made a profit out of it too.

With the amount of cash reserves that they have, they can build artificial islands across Taiwan strait and then walk into Taipei. It is highly unlikely that anyone will intervene militarily to prevent CCP from doing so - not at the risk of disrupting supply-chains and corporate profits.
 

bahadur shah duffer

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LoL Nah...
It's foolish if CIA thinks that congi govt will be serious about fighting China or retaking Aksai Chin..
I dont think it will be congi govt, but a coalition of multiple parties. Coalitions are always weak & can be used as puppets. The same script being used now in pakistan can also be applied to the left in India.
 

Synergy

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A very basic idea of how an invasion may look like.
Though it's cartoonish but their videos are good.


 

Synergy

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I dont think it will be congi govt, but a coalition of multiple parties. Coalitions are always weak & can be used as puppets. The same script being used now in pakistan can also be applied to the left in India.
Who will be mostly benefited if BJP govt loses power and Cong/khichdi govt comes in place? Ans is China and Russia. So better not to buy those propagandas to show US on a very bad light at this point in time. Whatever it may be, but US think tank isn't a moron.

Anyways, going ott.
 

Hari Sud

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Question - Has the shooting war over Taiwan, begun?

A - The answer is no, still not.

Question - Then why are Chinese escalating tension in the Taiwan Straits?

A - They are testing the United States' determination to defend Taiwan.

The Chinese action has two reasons:

1. China, although with a larger number of military equipment and proximity to Taiwan is much inferior militarily.

2. China cannot afford to lose a billion dollars a year in exports to the United States and Europe.

Both of these reasons are going to make China's posture much, but never start a shooting war.

Hence all this, what everyone has heard on the news is BS. Presence of Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan was to remind China that the above two points are key to US-China affair.

Chinese posturing time is over……. The reality is that they cannot afford to lose business and a few ships to the bottom of the sea.
 

Physx32

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Make what you will out of it but almost all the astrologers that I follow have repeatedly been saying for 1-2 years, something about some major extremely-rare (once in thousands of years) phenomenon occurring between 31st July and 5th August which has the potential to cause massive loss of life.

If Peolsi visits Taiwan and Cheens do shoot down her plane, then I am an astrology customer for life
Bhai, change your astrologers ASAP. I believe they're scamming you.
 

Rassil Krishnan

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Who will be mostly benefited if BJP govt loses power and Cong/khichdi govt comes in place? Ans is China and Russia. So better not to buy those propagandas to show US on a very bad light at this point in time. Whatever it may be, but US think tank isn't a moron.

Anyways, going ott.
actually ,I dont think there is one faction inside the US now. Ithink there are atleast 2 factions and maybe more who have different worldviews and goals of what they want the world to be like.they favour different ways of thinking and also beholden to different values and gods and patrons.

And there are factions like the neocons and the woke factions that are very stupid and provably stupid in their foreign and other policy.this is the same USA that sabotages its own oil production and other assets for ideological and short-term gains,what is the guarantee that this india policy is not a same kind of strategic blunder.I mean look at their Afghanistan fiasco,they might be doing something stupid under ideological compulsion thinking they it might get them influence and hence better leverage against china.
 

Blademaster

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A very basic idea of how an invasion may look like.
Though it's cartoonish but their videos are good.


There are several misconceptions and assumptions that are off base. I wouldn't presume the PLA to be a conscript force. It is 100% pure volunteer force, not conscript. They have undergone massive reforms in the recent years and shed a lot of unnecessary weight and trimmed the fat so to speak. The video left out the massive PLAN navy that China has to keep the USN and JMSDF at bay and there will be more than 2 waves. There will be at least 5 waves of attacks. And don't forget that PLA has hundreds of helicopters that could be used in the invasion. And CHina built 8 25k ton landing amphibious ships and built 3 LHDs and building 5 more. And have embarked on a new class of landing ship called Type 76 which would even be bigger than USS Wasp class ships. And they have about over 70 smaller landing crafts. Is this enough to overwhelm Taiwan defenses? No but I wouldn't underestimate the PLAN or the PLAGF.
 

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