USA China Cold War

Apollyon

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Has China backed down after its angry display of missile firing over Taiwan or is it risking a shooting war? The American position is very clear; that is, in-spite of highly incompetence of Biden Administration, America will defend Taiwan. With that in mind, will China risk a shooting war? No they will not. It will take time before they back down. Their prestige has been hurt plus they like to protect their export market. Hence what should we see in next three months:

1. Biden will resign (health grounds). His Vice President is more incompetent than he is, hence she will be forced to resign too.

2. Nancy Pelosi as per constitution will become the president and then China watch out for this rude and strong person. No compromise will be made. That means war or China backdown.

3. Ukraine war will be over. Biden Administration and whatever is left of it will eat a humble pie.

4. Xi of China will be replaced (after Xi who?)

5. India has opportunity to recover some parts of AkasChin because Chinese focus is on China sea.

6. If US-China short shooting War begins then India can block Straits of Malacca as part QUAD effort to constrict Chinese trade and oil supplies.

7. Then US will as a matter of gratitude (blocking Straits of Malacca) or a well thought out policy may switch consumer goods manufacture from China to India and send all the FDI to build india.

7. China will be permanently dealt with with no aggression left for a generation.

Hence my wish, that this China’s anger be settled in a short sea war. That will cut China to size……… cheers
-> Mid-Term Elections here in 2 months
-> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/
-> R poised to win House of Rep., Pelosi will no longer be 3rd in line to be POTUS

there goes your fan fiction :pound::pound:
 

Javelin_Sam

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Rough estimate is that Chinese in last few days fired about $10 billion worth of missiles in an useless display of anger and power.

Who got convinced……. ‘Nobody’

They lost a huge stock of war missile as a non war display. US monitored each and every missile trajectory and now they know how accurate these are. That is a valuable information if naval war comes to Taiwan and Pacafic.
They certainly are not stupid. If they fired these many missiles for show-off against Taiwan and US simultaneously when there is a border conflict with India, then that shows their confidence in the missile stockpiles. I bet the numbers will be huge and they can churn out these like samosas. Yes even if an element of quality is questionable, just 60 of the 100 missiles can hit the target, that is serious capability. Numbers do have quality of their own
 
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maximus777

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'We are not scared': Taiwan's foreign minister says island will stand up to 'more serious' China threats
Now this is pulling a Zelenskiy! Bravado is good, but unless US gets fully involved like in Vietnam or Korea, ROC is finished. CCP/PLA will probably take murderous losses, but if "she" makes up his mind, then there is no stopping.
 

Synergy

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Now this is pulling a Zelenskiy! Bravado is good, but unless US gets fully involved like in Vietnam or Korea, ROC is finished. CCP/PLA will probably take murderous losses, but if "she" makes up his mind, then there is no stopping.
Due to the nature of the invasion and topography, positive outcome isn't assured for China. Even if US doesn't get involved directly, China may cause huge damages to Taiwan but there isn't any guarantee that their amphibious assult will be successful. Taiwan will also cause heavy damages to their (China's) industrial bases. That's why still they are just barking and trying for coercion.

Next point of crux is, almost every war game of China against Taiwan starts with preemptive strike of US bases nearby. So direct US involvement is inevitable.
 

maximus777

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Due to the nature of the invasion and topography, positive outcome isn't assured for China. Even if US doesn't get involved directly, China may cause huge damages to Taiwan but there isn't any guarantee that their amphibious assult will be successful. Taiwan will also cause heavy damages to their (China's) industrial bases. That's why still they are just barking and trying for coercion.

Next point of crux is, almost every war game of China against Taiwan starts with preemptive strike of US bases nearby. So direct US involvement is inevitable.
In a hypothetical situation, if you exclude US (specifically US Navy) the outcome in favor of China is almost assured in my opinion. We can only debate the degree of damage PRC/ROC can cause each other.
 

karn

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In a hypothetical situation, if you exclude US (specifically US Navy) the outcome in favor of China is almost assured in my opinion. We can only debate the degree of damage PRC/ROC can cause each other.
No contested amphibious landing can be undertaken with impunity.
Even if the USN took it's ball and went home. PRCs best bet is a blockade.
 

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