USA China Cold War

Joined
Feb 16, 2009
Messages
27,943
Likes
37,372
Country flag

'We are not scared': Taiwan's foreign minister says island will stand up to 'more serious' China threats
 

maximus777

Regular Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2009
Messages
996
Likes
4,546
Country flag

'We are not scared': Taiwan's foreign minister says island will stand up to 'more serious' China threats
Now this is pulling a Zelenskiy! Bravado is good, but unless US gets fully involved like in Vietnam or Korea, ROC is finished. CCP/PLA will probably take murderous losses, but if "she" makes up his mind, then there is no stopping.
 

Synergy

Regular Member
Joined
Jun 27, 2020
Messages
674
Likes
2,060
Country flag
Now this is pulling a Zelenskiy! Bravado is good, but unless US gets fully involved like in Vietnam or Korea, ROC is finished. CCP/PLA will probably take murderous losses, but if "she" makes up his mind, then there is no stopping.
Due to the nature of the invasion and topography, positive outcome isn't assured for China. Even if US doesn't get involved directly, China may cause huge damages to Taiwan but there isn't any guarantee that their amphibious assult will be successful. Taiwan will also cause heavy damages to their (China's) industrial bases. That's why still they are just barking and trying for coercion.

Next point of crux is, almost every war game of China against Taiwan starts with preemptive strike of US bases nearby. So direct US involvement is inevitable.
 

maximus777

Regular Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2009
Messages
996
Likes
4,546
Country flag
Due to the nature of the invasion and topography, positive outcome isn't assured for China. Even if US doesn't get involved directly, China may cause huge damages to Taiwan but there isn't any guarantee that their amphibious assult will be successful. Taiwan will also cause heavy damages to their (China's) industrial bases. That's why still they are just barking and trying for coercion.

Next point of crux is, almost every war game of China against Taiwan starts with preemptive strike of US bases nearby. So direct US involvement is inevitable.
In a hypothetical situation, if you exclude US (specifically US Navy) the outcome in favor of China is almost assured in my opinion. We can only debate the degree of damage PRC/ROC can cause each other.
 

karn

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
1,948
Likes
8,145
Country flag
In a hypothetical situation, if you exclude US (specifically US Navy) the outcome in favor of China is almost assured in my opinion. We can only debate the degree of damage PRC/ROC can cause each other.
No contested amphibious landing can be undertaken with impunity.
Even if the USN took it's ball and went home. PRCs best bet is a blockade.
 

Clairvoyance

Regular Member
Joined
Jan 19, 2022
Messages
92
Likes
632
Country flag
Ukraine and Taiwan is a bad comparison. Ukraine is unimportant and produces very little of value that can't be sourced from elsewhere. Taiwan is very important for high value semiconductors that are critical for the technology driven service industry and advanced industrial components, i.e. the backbone of the US and other advanced countries economies.

Currently, only three companies produce advanced semiconductors: TSMC (Taiwan), South Korea (Samsung), and the US (Intel). Of these, TSMC is the most advanced and can produce 3 nanometer chips. Next Samsung with 5 nm and last Intel with 10 nm. All Apple and AMD processors for example use TSMC. It would be a terrible blow to the US and all anti-China countries if China were to gain Taiwan.

Ukraine's top 3 exports are seed oils, corn, and wheat.
 

Synergy

Regular Member
Joined
Jun 27, 2020
Messages
674
Likes
2,060
Country flag
In a hypothetical situation, if you exclude US (specifically US Navy) the outcome in favor of China is almost assured in my opinion. We can only debate the degree of damage PRC/ROC can cause each other.
In this context, the outcome in favour of China should be forceful reunification of Taiwan. Then there will be a need of huge no of Chinese boots on Taiwanese soil. Taiwan has few beaches those can be used for that purpose and undertaking an amphibious assult after crossing 130/150 km in this era of highly accurate missiles, is next to impossible. Taiwan has a large inventory of anti ship missiles including Harpoon.
 

IndianHawk

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2016
Messages
8,825
Likes
36,384
Country flag
In a hypothetical situation, if you exclude US (specifically US Navy) the outcome in favor of China is almost assured in my opinion. We can only debate the degree of damage PRC/ROC can cause each other.
China will have to ship thousands of soldiers to Taiwan to take it over . It doesn't have enough amphibious capacity to do that now. And then those ships will be shrunk. And the whole world will be supplying Taiwan with anti ship anti tank weapons. Besides US and Japan won't tolerate it because it puts china much to close to their own bases .
 

Clairvoyance

Regular Member
Joined
Jan 19, 2022
Messages
92
Likes
632
Country flag
Another important difference between Ukraine and Taiwan are the ramifications of losing them.

Only giving arms and intelligence to Ukraine was a smart move as it keeps Russia bogged down with minimal cost to the US. Even if Russia conquers its objectives, it lacks the manufacturing strength to replenish its losses and cannot pose a peer threat to NATO. The real winners of the war are the US as the loyalty of its European allies has been assured, China because it can muscle in to replace Russia in Central Asia and will likely have Russia dependend on it, the GCC because of high oil prices, and India because its troublesome neighbors are getting economically hammered. The losers are the EU, Russia, Africa and less developed countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh.

But in the case of Taiwan, the ability of the US to maintain control over the Pacific will be in question. As long as the US controls both western Europe and the western Pacific, it doesn't have to worry about a strong European or Asian country influencing the Americas. If China becomes the strongest Pacific nation, it may draw Latin American countries out of the US sphere of—just like how Japan and later the US drew Korea out of the Chinese sphere. For that reason I don't think the US response to Ukraine means anything when guaging a US response to a Taiwan crisis.

However even if China takes Taiwan (still unlikely as of now) in a blitzkrieg campaign due to Taiwan's comparatively weak military and proximity, it won't spell the end to the US presence. Rather, I think we'll see Red Scare 3.0 and the US will focus everything on an arms race with China and we may see QUAD+South Korea morphing into a concrete alliance. Basically the US will get out of its human rights, pro-liberalism mode and return to its more ruthless, Cold War style foreign policy.
 

maximus777

Regular Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2009
Messages
996
Likes
4,546
Country flag
No contested amphibious landing can be undertaken with impunity.
Even if the USN took it's ball and went home. PRCs best bet is a blockade.
One thing about the eastern civilizations is their persistence. PRC/ROC will go on for decades like the Koreas.
 

Sanglamorre

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 4, 2019
Messages
3,303
Likes
13,896
Country flag
Ukraine and Taiwan is a bad comparison. Ukraine is unimportant and produces very little of value that can't be sourced from elsewhere. Taiwan is very important for high value semiconductors that are critical for the technology driven service industry and advanced industrial components, i.e. the backbone of the US and other advanced countries economies.

Currently, only three companies produce advanced semiconductors: TSMC (Taiwan), South Korea (Samsung), and the US (Intel). Of these, TSMC is the most advanced and can produce 3 nanometer chips. Next Samsung with 5 nm and last Intel with 10 nm. All Apple and AMD processors for example use TSMC. It would be a terrible blow to the US and all anti-China countries if China were to gain Taiwan.

Ukraine's top 3 exports are seed oils, corn, and wheat.
Samsung chips are becoming lol. For example, the Snapdragon 888 and 8 gen 1 were produced in Samsung foundries after having being produced till then by TSMC.

Result? Those two chips are inefficient, produce too much heat to be useful and crap. Same problems as Samsung's own Exynos chips. Hell, even Samsung uses TSMC Snapdragons for their flagships.

There's only really TSMC that can fulfill many needs.
 

Blademaster

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2009
Messages
3,597
Likes
11,321
In this context, the outcome in favour of China should be forceful reunification of Taiwan. Then there will be a need of huge no of Chinese boots on Taiwanese soil. Taiwan has few beaches those can be used for that purpose and undertaking an amphibious assult after crossing 130/150 km in this era of highly accurate missiles, is next to impossible. Taiwan has a large inventory of anti ship missiles including Harpoon.
not only anti ship missiles but accurate artillery and rockets on the order of Excalibur and HIMARS. Taiwan artillery just need to saturate the areas that the Chinese landing boats would be crossing and Chinese counterbattery teams won't be able to take them out.
 

prasadr14

PrasadReddy
Senior Member
Joined
Sep 25, 2015
Messages
4,952
Likes
29,364
Now this is pulling a Zelenskiy! Bravado is good, but unless US gets fully involved like in Vietnam or Korea, ROC is finished. CCP/PLA will probably take murderous losses, but if "she" makes up his mind, then there is no stopping.
Depends on the objective.

China can bomb Taiwan to stone age & can absorb the retaliation coming it's way from Taiwan. That would finish Taiwan, it's people and China story. There won't be any western nation that would do business with China for next 100 years.

If China wants to occupy Taiwan by putting boots on the ground, it needs to look at the fact that occupying forces have not won a war in a long time. China will not the first exception in decades.
Even Russia is struggling with supply issues over flat terrain to maintain it's war machine & this is after the fact many of the provinces it occupied has Russian supporters in Ukraine.

There will no Taiwanese that would welcome the Chinese military. Any Chinese boots on the ground will not be making it back to mainland. The supply chain issues for China will be significant since they will need cross what will by then by a very treacherous bay and skies.

Can China bomb Taiwan? sure but thats not winning them any war & the bill that follows that action will most certainly be curtains for China story for a century at least.
 

maximus777

Regular Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2009
Messages
996
Likes
4,546
Country flag
Depends on the objective.

China can bomb Taiwan to stone age & can absorb the retaliation coming it's way from Taiwan. That would finish Taiwan, it's people and China story. There won't be any western nation that would do business with China for next 100 years.

If China wants to occupy Taiwan by putting boots on the ground, it needs to look at the fact that occupying forces have not won a war in a long time. China will not the first exception in decades.
Even Russia is struggling with supply issues over flat terrain to maintain it's war machine & this is after the fact many of the provinces it occupied has Russian supporters in Ukraine.

There will no Taiwanese that would welcome the Chinese military. Any Chinese boots on the ground will not be making it back to mainland. The supply chain issues for China will be significant since they will need cross what will by then by a very treacherous bay and skies.

Can China bomb Taiwan? sure but thats not winning them any war & the bill that follows that action will most certainly be curtains for China story for a century at least.
Not a fan/supporter of PRC by a long stretch, but they can copy and manufacture the hell out of anything. So assuming there is no shortage of BM, CM, rockets and arty shells, ROC would look like Chechnya - reduced to a rubble with or without PLA boots on ground. While ROC can still flaunt their freedom card, not sure what good is freedom when your country is wiped out. Once this happens, NATO and the West will soon abandon ROC since there is no incentive to stay involved without the chip fabs. US MIC will sell a bunch of weapons to India/SE Asia and will move on to the next conflict.
 

prasadr14

PrasadReddy
Senior Member
Joined
Sep 25, 2015
Messages
4,952
Likes
29,364
Not a fan/supporter of PRC by a long stretch, but they can copy and manufacture the hell out of anything. So assuming there is no shortage of BM, CM, rockets and arty shells, ROC would look like Chechnya - reduced to a rubble with or without PLA boots on ground. While ROC can still flaunt their freedom card, not sure what good is freedom when your country is wiped out. Once this happens, NATO and the West will soon abandon ROC since what good is it without the fabs?
I certainly agree that China can reduce Taiwan to a rubble
but
that is not winning them the war or Taiwanese territory or people.

What follows after that for China will be a world that will be reluctant to do any business with them. They will probably have Russia and North Korea as their trading partners left.
 

NutCracker

Regular Member
Joined
Jun 17, 2022
Messages
657
Likes
3,393
Country flag
This is not good.

The US is not getting what it wants from India, thats why you see the muslim brotherhood getting involved in India.

Does the US need India? yes, very much, but are its needs possible with current govt? nope. The CIA clowns are upto something in India & you can actually see major aryas indirect hints from this video.

LoL Nah...
It's foolish if CIA thinks that congi govt will be serious about fighting China or retaking Aksai Chin..
 

srevster

Regular Member
Joined
Nov 10, 2020
Messages
883
Likes
1,972
Country flag
As I said, the exercises are a feint. They plan to invade. It’s the same pattern of what they did in Ladakh. It starts with a 3 day exercise, which is now a 15 day exercise and that becomes the new normal.

it’s so obvious if you do pattern recognition and apply that prediction to their future actions.
 

Global Defence

Articles

Top