US to slap tariffs on extra $200B of Chinese imports

AmoghaVarsha

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It isn't Chinese companies that pay the tariffs, it is US companies buying Chinese products. As the price of those goods increase they will seek other suppliers and Chinese companies will lose business as they will be uncompetitive.
What if chinese further devalue the artifcially depressed Yuan? If chinese let yuan find its own level its exports will become uncompetitive as it is.

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Darth Malgus

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What if chinese further devalue the artifcially depressed Yuan? If chinese let yuan find its own level its exports will become uncompetitive as it is.

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Can they even Devalue their currency more than they have already done till now ?
 
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What if chinese further devalue the artifcially depressed Yuan? If chinese let yuan find its own level its exports will become uncompetitive as it is.

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That does not change the tariffs. Chinese currency devaluation would probably break their
banking system and economy which has calculated in growth (fake) that will not happen.
Chinese have expanded against heavy borrowing that was suppose to be fueled by growth
that no longer will take place.
 
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China’s external debt is less than 2 trillion.

I am not saying ripples won’t be felt within China, I am saying they have the resources and capability to survive the storm.
Export economies always lose big in a trade war especially when leveraged.
 
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Figures of 250%+ of GDP have been calculated for China Internal Debt (Yuan denominated) - the PRC claims a GDP of USD 10 trillion, placing Chinese internal debt at north of $25 trillion.

External debt - I am not sure what the numbers are. China has been trade surplus and also has had a lot of capital inflows. However, they have also had a lot of capital flight so I think that the Chinese external situation is more precarious than widely acknowledged.

China now has draconian capital controls - their rules claims that Chinese can convert to foreign currency USD 50,000 - however their are reports that anything more than $5000 is not being allowed by Chinese banks. By implication they are trying to conserve foreign currency. This does not sound like a country with trillions of freely usable foreign currency reserves.

Ultimately if PRC survives it will be by the US Government bakshish (rescind tariffs) or by Wall Street gifts (push investor money into China by shenanigans like making the Yuan a reserve currency, changing the composition and weightage of, for example, Morgan Stanley Global stock indices to push even more money into Chinese equities, launch in NY mega billion IPOs or follow on offerings of Chinese internet companies, etc etc)

Whole Chinese system of reporting has been a big lie and scam that will be
Revealed when cracks start to appear
 

Compersion

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Disruption, transformation and transition at the top ... handle with care ... if know how
 

ezsasa

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When Trump took over the office, USD/CNY = 6.95, now until yesterday, USD/CNY = 6.69, so, yes, they can.
long term Chinese plan is to get 1:1 parity is it?
if that so, i will be very glad to see that day... the burnol those americans would need should be worth watching...
:rofl:
 

Haldiram

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long term Chinese plan is to get 1:1 parity is it?
if that so, i will be very glad to see that day... the burnol those americans would need should be worth watching...
:rofl:
The Chinese and US economies are fused at the hip. No one can destroy the other without destroying themselves. Both know it, but they are still trying their last ditch attempts at brinkmanship to see what they concessions they can squeeze out.

In a doomsday scenario, China can dump all of its USD reserves in the open market and crash the dollar in a week. But that would mean the surrendering of their Brahmastra, and it would be followed by a US military retaliation because, well..they have nothing left to lose.

They have cultivated these options as a counter against ultimatums. Chinese military cannot match the US, so they say "if you were to military attack us, there'd be economic consequences for you". Which, by corollary means that China will not use this option unless there's a US military attack otherwise they lose that chip. So the tussle will remain at a boiling point but both sides ensure that it doesn't spillover.
 

nimo_cn

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Americans are doing this for risk management, just in case that China's growth goes out of control and China surpasses America. And americans want more share in Chinese economic boom, this trade war also serves the purpose of forcing China to concede more benifits to American companies. if China wants to end the war, just accept American terms, solve it for good. but that won't happen unless we have a fight.
 

ezsasa

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The Chinese and US economies are fused at the hip. No one can destroy the other without destroying themselves. Both know it, but they are still trying their last ditch attempts at brinkmanship to see what they concessions they can squeeze out.

In a doomsday scenario, China can dump all of its USD reserves in the open market and crash the dollar in a week. But that would mean the surrendering of their Brahmastra, and it would be followed by a US military retaliation because, well..they have nothing left to lose.

They have cultivated these options as a counter against ultimatums. Chinese military cannot match the US, so they say "if you were to military attack us, there'd be economic consequences for you". Which, by corollary means that China will not use this option unless there's a US military attack otherwise they lose that chip. So the tussle will remain at a boiling point but both sides ensure that it doesn't spillover.
I think we might be seeing the beginning of the end of the american empire. 20-30 years of bi-polar world, and after that it's china and russia all the way.
 

ezsasa

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The Chinese and US economies are fused at the hip. No one can destroy the other without destroying themselves. Both know it, but they are still trying their last ditch attempts at brinkmanship to see what they concessions they can squeeze out.

In a doomsday scenario, China can dump all of its USD reserves in the open market and crash the dollar in a week. But that would mean the surrendering of their Brahmastra, and it would be followed by a US military retaliation because, well..they have nothing left to lose.

They have cultivated these options as a counter against ultimatums. Chinese military cannot match the US, so they say "if you were to military attack us, there'd be economic consequences for you". Which, by corollary means that China will not use this option unless there's a US military attack otherwise they lose that chip. So the tussle will remain at a boiling point but both sides ensure that it doesn't spillover.
On a serious note, any opinion on why American liberals are so focused on Russia, while totally ignoring China.
 

no smoking

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It's like British empire and Nazi Germany all over again with same years of century.

No, completely different. Last time, it was Germany who started the war because they couldn't win in the existing system created by British/French.


This time, it was American who feels that they are losing in the current system which was created by themselves.


Personally I believe we can be real winners of this Tread war like America was in 20th century.

Well, China is not the only one in the American's target list. Trump's "fair trade" policy basically aims at everyone. Remember, India didn't receive an exemption from US' aluminum and steel import.


Instead, if US can win big against Chinese on this trade war, this kind of "fair trade" policy can work for every single developing country.


we don't have any problem with sanctions as long as we can buy oil and other materials from USA and sell our goods to us with reasonable price.

Not that simple.

Firstly, what is the "reasonable price", decided by who? If you check the history of Sino-US trade, you will find that the American “reasonable price” did change from time to time;

Secondly, Americans are putting lots of sanctions on your major suppliers such as Iran, Russia, etc, you don’t have problem with these either?

Thirdly, Americans want you to pay a “reasonable price” for their IP as well, are you going be ok with that?
 

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