US deal said to let India expand nuclear arms

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http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article11936.htm



US deal said to let India expand nuclear arms


By Carol Giacomo
Diplomatic Correspondent

02/15/06 "Reuters" -- -- A landmark new U.S.-India nuclear agreement would enable New Delhi to expand atomic weapons production and encourage Pakistan and China to do likewise, according to critics of the controversial deal.

In analyses to be made public on Wednesday, non-proliferation experts expressed grave concerns about a proposed "separation" plan that would open India's civil nuclear facilities to U.N. inspections, while permitting military facilities to remain off-limits.

The plan is central to whether the U.S.-India nuclear deal, agreed last July, goes forward. U.S. business leaders say the deal could open the door to billions of dollars in non-nuclear and civilian nuclear-related contracts while government officials say the agreement commits India to play a larger role in halting the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

But the two governments are at odds over details, and it is unclear if they can reach agreement before President George W. Bush visits New Delhi in early March.

But even if the Bush administration deemed the plan credible and all civilian facilities were placed under permanent international monitoring, the sale of U.S. and other foreign fuel to India "would still free-up India's existing capacity to produce plutonium and highly enriched uranium for weapons and allow for the rapid expansion of India's nuclear arsenal," the experts said in a memo to the U.S. Congress obtained by Reuters.

"A sober analysis reveals the non-proliferation benefits of the original proposal are overstated and the damage to the non-proliferation regime is potentially high," said the memo, prepared by Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association and five others.

For 30 years, the United States led the effort to deny India nuclear technology because it tested and developed nuclear weapons in contravention of international norms. Both India and its neighbor and nuclear-armed rival Pakistan have refused to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

But Bush now views India, a rising democratic and economic power on China's border, as an evolving U.S. ally and the new nuclear deal -- allowing India to purchase nuclear reactors and fuel -- is central to that vision.

Kimball told Reuters on Tuesday he believed the deal may "fall apart" over the separation plan because India wants to exclude a large number of civilian facilities and spent fuel from international inspections.

The plan aims to ensure U.S. nuclear technology is never used for military purposes and in theory would make civilian facilities less susceptible to proliferation.

But if India buys U.S. and other foreign nuclear fuel and continues to expand its nuclear arsenal, this would force Pakistan to increase its arsenal and encourage China to continue modernizing, Kimball said.

Leonard Weiss, a chief architect of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Act of 1978 when he was staff director of the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs from 1977 to 1999, said in his analysis that if the deal enables India to ramp up its weapons production, this was a violation of U.S. obligations under the NPT, the bedrock arms control pact.

Weiss, Kimball and other experts told Congress that 11 operating power reactors in India may have produced as much as 9,000 kilograms of plutonium, which could be processed to make 1,000 nuclear weapons.

India has an estimated 50 nuclear weapons now and a goal of 300-400 weapons in a decade, the experts said.

The administration has been worried about the nuclear deal's fate, but a senior official told Reuters late on Tuesday he is more optimistic than he was two weeks ago.

Aiming to move away from the controversy and set a positive tone for Bush's visit, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is expected to address Parliament on relations with the United States on February 20 and Bush two days later will make a speech to the Asia Society with a focus on India, U.S. and other sources said.
 

ajtr

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LF,
Did you intend to post this dated article as one of the major reason for present China-pak nuke reactors deal??
 
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I posted this because the fallout from the deal is what is impacting India today, the following things happening today are all a result of the view above:

India -Pak urged to sign NPT/CTBT
China-Pakistan nuclear deal
Pakistan nuclear program expansion
India reprocessing deal
Separation of nuclear facilities
India's nuclear program expansion
MRCA deal
India's fast breeder program
ATV nuclear sub program expansion
India's economic expansion

These are some the things that have come as a result of the deal, these things can be linked to the deal.
Also the numbers presented are interesting from 11 military reactors there will be enough plutonium to
make 1000 warheads. This number maybe annually?? Also this number does not include the plutonium
we already have in reserve. This deal is correct in the assumption that we will import fuel for our civilian
reactor and all our indigenous fuel can go towards the military program. This is a lot of plutonium and
even if other uses are found for it in the future like fueling spaceships, this will put India in a good strategic position. This also shows how much faith the Bush administration had in India to give it a deal
like this without India signing the NPT.
 

Yusuf

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Its old news and thought that indian govt negotiated a masterstroke with bush in the nuke deal. Yes it will free our limited uranium reserves for strategic use and we already have some fissile material. In fact quite a bit. That is why india is not averse to signing the FMCT as it may already have a lot of fissile material already in store.
 

ajtr

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India -Pak urged to sign NPT/CTBT
China-Pakistan nuclear deal
Pakistan nuclear program expansion
Thats typical of any NPA.They 've been blaming anything related to Pakistani-Chinese nuke proliferation on India since ages only thing india is NPA's favorite punching bag.Even if indo-usa nuke deal have not had happened there were always chances of all the above three happening.Greatest mistake west does is equating china-pak proliferation as a result of india's nuke program just to hide their incompetence in stopping the proliferation coz they are unable to confront china so other best option for them is blame it all on india.Its like as most of the west politicians and think tanks say that the solution of afghanistan lies in solving kashmir....This is another example that west in order to hide their failure in curbing Islamic militancy in pakistan and afghanistan just chose to blame india again. And biggest mistake indians do is to believe west's explanation and browbeat india in indian media.....

secondly, India has sought reprocessing deal for a reason....coz there is huge pile of radioactive fuel from canadian reactor for past 36 years after india tested nukes in 1974.so in order not to fall in same trap again india is insisting on reprocessing.

PS:i'm not sure but some blogs estimate indian fissile material nearly 9 tons.(citation nedded?)
 
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Agantrope

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Ajtr,
Our nuclear material estimate is more than 10Tonnes (through some unofficial sources) when the nuke deal is signed. We mainly processed the Thorium for reactors which made the US to keep their fingers in their nose. In recent find in Andhra (telugana region) people have found a large reserve of the Uranium which is enough for making more than 100-120Tonnes of which 90-100 Tonnes can be used happily. Armament is not a problem, within 2-3 Years we can make some 250-280 Warheads easily in the FBRs.

It is all our proliferation record made us brighter in the world.
 

ajtr

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Ajtr,
Our nuclear material estimate is more than 10Tonnes (through some unofficial sources) when the nuke deal is signed. We mainly processed the Thorium for reactors which made the US to keep their fingers in their nose. In recent find in Andhra (telugana region) people have found a large reserve of the Uranium which is enough for making more than 100-120Tonnes of which 90-100 Tonnes can be used happily. Armament is not a problem, within 2-3 Years we can make some 250-280 Warheads easily in the FBRs.

It is all our proliferation record made us brighter in the world.
I'm actually i'm referring to the spent fuel from the reactors which can be reprocessed not the one that can be mined.
 

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I say we need another test to shake the things up. Then when loosers start shouting, agree to sign NPT as Weapon state. Its now or don't know when? US/Russia can not loose the Nuclear market in here to pressure with anything.
 

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I'm actually i'm referring to the spent fuel from the reactors which can be reprocessed not the one that can be mined.
Read the post carefully, i have mentioned the current stockpile and reserve in the mine as separate things
 

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I say we need another test to shake the things up. Then when loosers start shouting, agree to sign NPT as Weapon state. Its now or don't know when? US/Russia can not loose the Nuclear market in here to pressure with anything.
Easier said than done. Not happening in fact. We cannot just test and tell the world that we will sign NPT as nuke members. No one will accept that.
 

nrj

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Easier said than done. Not happening in fact. We cannot just test and tell the world that we will sign NPT as nuke members. No one will accept that.
I know the ramifications it'll involve. But World has to to start taking us seriously. How many years are we going to wait for UNSC seat? (Its only status symbol now though). Western reports claim India doesn't even have two nuclear launch platforms. Nuke test can imbalance many regional & International equations or yrs of Indian diplomacy but if We need International say, we need to flex out balls. That seems to be only thumb rule now.

As for the accepting, they'll never accept if we want to induct ASAT or test ICBM... We need to frame strategy. We can do a physical test or simulate the theater..
 

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^^sooner or later india has to test with chines-pak-north korea triangle proliferation going in full swing india has to test and validate its fusion weapon.
 

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Nrj,
In the current scenario, everyone knows we cannot test even if we want to. It would be plain stupid to do so. there is a thin line in showing balls and showing your stupid. India is not stupid. A test now is suicidal. With the new order unraveling we never know india may well be accepted as a nuke state under NPT or may be NPT itself will fall apart in the near future. India is not going to lose anything at the moment by not testing but it sure will lose a lot if it does. The time to test will come soon, when we are in NPT as nuke state and then we will sign the CTBT too.
 

Iamanidiot

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Nrj,
In the current scenario, everyone knows we cannot test even if we want to. It would be plain stupid to do so. there is a thin line in showing balls and showing your stupid. India is not stupid. A test now is suicidal. With the new order unraveling we never know india may well be accepted as a nuke state under NPT or may be NPT itself will fall apart in the near future. India is not going to lose anything at the moment by not testing but it sure will lose a lot if it does. The time to test will come soon, when we are in NPT as nuke state and then we will sign the CTBT too.
amen to that.Pklus Yusuf what is the possibility of russians sharing there nuke data with india as quid pro quo
 

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Quid pro quo for what Praveen?
 

Yusuf

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I don't think they will part with it. That is a violation of international laws which I think russia will honor. But I think it sure will support indias entry into NPT as nuke state.
 

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I don't think they will part with it. That is a violation of international laws which I think russia will honor. But I think it sure will support indias entry into NPT as nuke state.
they aided us in getting a nuke submarine yusuf.Well they may have aided us in our nuke program i feel
 

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They leased us a nuke sub, no violation of any law. And also laws always have an excuse too which are exploited by everyone. If india did have access to russian nuke data, our thermonuclear test would not have failed.
 

Agantrope

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They leased us a nuke sub, no violation of any law. And also laws always have an excuse too which are exploited by everyone. If india did have access to russian nuke data, our thermonuclear test would not have failed.
Thermo Nuclear test data is controversial one and we cant arrive to a conclusion whether it is success or failure.
 

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