i have said this before and will repeat it yet again, gone are the days of one way street on india’s relations with the us and with russia, there are gains to be had from both, with india pursuing strong relations with both and forging much more stronger relations in times to come. yes there will come testing times when both the us and russia will use pressure tactics on india to follow their stand on certain issues but india after weighing in the pros and cons will slightly tilt on one side and then the other, extract maximum leverage in bargain and then take a neutral stand and move on.
it might seem in certain corners that india is siding too much with the us, but then there were relations to be built upon when none existed in the past and this is seen as some sort of a bonhomie which in fact is nothing but convergence of interests for a future that brings about mutually beneficial results for the two concerned nations. both the nations face common threats and it is only sensible to tackle the same together.
indo-russian relations after having had quite a roller-coaster ride which lasted for quite a long time period are back to near normal with the focus now to give a significant push to bilateral trade which was hardly the discussion point in the past. the military relationship has moved past from one of buyer supplier to one of joint investments with joint development with the two countries now engaged in well over 200 projects which are of buy/sell and JV nature and this relationship with an emerging stronger india will only get deeper and better.
people have termed obama a disaster for indo-us relations but off late there has been quite a transformation. for the fist time it is looking like the relations are back on track prompting former ambassador m k bhadrakumar to do a write up on relations reaching the near same heights where the bush administration had left them. may be not at the same level but certainly a lot of warming up has taken place with india getting a key say on a lot of regional issues. with the us being the sole super power there is too much to be had to let go this relationship even if the russians feel a little offended and probably let down.
even otherwise it seems obama is getting out of his shell with a recovering economy and getting more assertive, one just needs to reflect on the way he is now giving a twist to the initially thought comfortable us-sino relations by cozying up to taiwan and dalai lama which has generated a lot of irritants with the chinese fuming away in disgust and anger.
1> can india -us relations stand the test of time ?
needs to be seen, but it seems this relationship will reach a point soon enough where a change in the administration in the us will have no bearing on the direction the indo-us relations will be headed to, as it is even today one even finds a lot of support amongst both the republican and the democrat senators to have better relations with india. benefits are to be had on both ends more for india today but as india grows in stature, india’s role will only increase significantly in this relationship.
2> will russia go all -out to woo its close friend ?
there is no doubt in my mind that russia will keep wooing india but will this be the single most important relationship for russia is a little difficult to ascertain for they have the prc in their immediate vicinity, but yes this will certainly be one of the most important.
3>how much will growth of china affect this relationship ?
a communist china is a concern without a doubt for india and if china gets too aggressive then i tend to believe that will make the russians as well a little edgy, and this will be one point that will make india and russia get along on a lot of fronts without any friction and work together to achieve common goals.
4> what does this new decade hold for india ?
uninterrupted economic progress with real growth figures in double digits is all i want india to do and have, and this needs to happen for at least two decades starting today and then from 2025-30 timeline onwards should india start coming to the fore on key international issues, till then keep slogging hard, keep a relatively low profile but be in a position to defend your interests and mould our relations with international players in such a way that they come to the fore defending our interests but all this for now needs to be pursued in a subtle manner. be the good boy but a manipulative one at that, it pays back handsomely!
5> how much does US- pakistan relationship or US-China relationship or China-russia relationship affect indian thinking ?
i think we have still not reached the stage of either with us or against us. india will look at how best to benefit from various situations that arise, not completely align with any of the major powers, try and get the best deal for it self, and move on. i believe india’s relations with the leading powers will remain independent of what the relations of these powers are with each other till the time they do not directly hurt our interests, and even when some irritants emerge, i think they will be chalked out through talks.
the most important thing for india is, it needs a peaceful growth and a quite rise without causing concerns or doubts about our intentions in the minds of other nationals with our interests more or less taken care off. quite a task at hand for indian diplomacy!
PS: Avi, please add a poll to the thread, questioning what relationship do members feel should be the top most priority in the forth coming decade/s?
indi-russia, indo-us, both, none.