- Nov 23, 2014
I agree lets ignore the clutter (noise) and monitor the Asia policy for couple of years. Its gut feeling that Biden will try to befriend but will be very wary of getting an egg on his face. This will weigh heavily in his mind, so he & his team is avoiding any too much friendly gestures in public.Let's test out a theory since it is early days in the new murican administration, we get to make observations afresh. lots of stuff will be happening around the world some relevant mostly irrelevant. since CCP is on our minds these days, we could test out probable causes of relevant/interesting events against a proposed theory or paradigm.
I propose a paradigm "Any country that has ongoing unresolved issue with CCP, will be at the receiving end of American administration directly or thru their various instruments of their foreign policy"
Answer will be either "Valid" or "Invalid" .
For example :
1) Current Australian govt has an issue with CCP, but google has threatened Australia. In this scenario paradigm gets "Valid", because google is an instrument of murican foreign policy.
2) Taiwan has a historical problem with CCP, but murican administration starts recognising Taiwan. In this scenario, paradigm is "Invalid".
No hurry, we can test it out for years to come. if anyone is interested in improving it further, you are welcome, but objective is to measure an event in simple binary.
Lets monitor the Asia policy w.r.t Quad and wall street (later is more important). As much as we may worry, its also US ass & status on the line. Once there is potential alternative to US dollar the gravy train will likely slow down causing lot more turmoil.