Ukraine's political crisis

W.G.Ewald

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http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/29/b...ties-include-its-financial-lifeline.html?_r=0

As Ukraine's political crisis has deepened, an economic question looms: Will Russia continue to bail out the country if it again tilts to the West?

After months of protests, and the resignation Tuesday of the country's prime minister, the opposition in Ukraine appears closer than ever to achieving its goals, chief among them compelling the government to reject trade and aid deals with Russia and to turn to the European Union instead.

But that political victory might quickly turn into an economic crisis. Even if Ukraine once again looks westward, there is no financial package ready to replace the Russian aid the Kremlin began offering in December. Without foreign assistance, Ukraine is all but certain to either default on its debt or devalue its currency.
 

W.G.Ewald

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President Viktor Yanukovych conceded some ground to anti-government protesters on Tuesday, accepting the resignation of the country's Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and Azarov's cabinet.

Azarov said he had decided to step down "for the sake of a peaceful settlement" to the current political turmoil in Ukraine.

In a statement posted to the government website Tuesday morning as lawmakers filed into Ukraine's parliament, Azarov wrote that he had asked President Yanukovych to accept his resignation "in order to create additional possibilities for socio-political compromise [and] to deal with the conflict peacefully."
Mashable: Ukraine prime minister resigns as parliament scraps anti-protest laws
 

W.G.Ewald

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Ukraine's president tried to placate demonstrators on Tuesday by accepting his prime minister's resignation and repealing new antidissent laws, but the heat remained on him as Moscow signaled it could review a massive bailout deal.

Moscow approved a $15 billion bailout last year when President Viktor Yanukovych agreed to drop a planned deal with the European Union that Russia bitterly opposed. But the Kremlin has viewed his weakening political position with growing alarm, and is watching to see if Kiev strays too far from its pro-Moscow course.

Pressure from financial markets is also mounting. Standard & Poor's cut its long- and short-term foreign-currency sovereign-credit ratings on Ukraine to triple-C-plus/single-C from single-B-minus/single-B, with a negative outlook, saying it now assesses Ukraine as exhibiting characteristics of a "distressed civil society with weakened political institutions," diminishing the government's capacity to maintain timely debt service.
Kremlin Concern Rises Amid Ukraine Turmoil - WSJ.com
 

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Razor

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As Ukraine's political crisis has deepened, an economic question looms: Will Russia continue to bail out the country if it again tilts to the West?

After months of protests, and the resignation Tuesday of the country's prime minister, the opposition in Ukraine appears closer than ever to achieving its goals, chief among them compelling the government to reject trade and aid deals with Russia and to turn to the European Union instead.

But that political victory might quickly turn into an economic crisis. Even if Ukraine once again looks westward, there is no financial package ready to replace the Russian aid the Kremlin began offering in December. Without foreign assistance, Ukraine is all but certain to either default on its debt or devalue its currency.
Answer: http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...rade-suicide-halts-talks-eu-4.html#post848724

Maybe the threads can be merged, decision rests on Mods @pmaitra
 
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rock127

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Isnt this about Pro-EU Vs Pro-Russia tug of war?
 

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TrueSpirit1

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"STATEMENT OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DONETSK PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC

Today, on 04.15.2014, the newly founded Donetsk People's Republic became the target of military aggression on part of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian authority that came to power as a result of an armed anti-constitutional coup, initiated military actions in the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic, using the soldiers of Ukrainian armed forces, gunmen from illegal armed bands and servicemen from foreign private military companies financed by the USA.

Under the guise of false statements about an alleged anti-terrorist operation, they actually declared war on the people, using heavy weapons and aircraft. The lives of civilians are in danger. As Kiev has warned, the possibility of large-scale missile and bombing raids against cities is not out of the question.

Thus, the fascist regime of Ukraine, supported and financed by the USA and the Western European countries has actually started genocide of the Russian-speaking population in the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The foundation of the Donetsk People's Republic is an objective reality that became necessary as a consequence of complete collapse of the Ukrainian government institutions after an anti-constitutional coup, it was founded in order to defend constitutional rights and liberties of the people residing in the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Being aware that it is the last obstacle on the aggressor's way to the destruction of Russia, the people and the government of the Donetsk People's Republic, the command and personnel of the South Eastern Army hereby declare that the aggressor will be immediately rebuffed as it deserves.

We demand that the reactionary circles of the USA and the Western European countries who gave the Kiev regime their blessing to perform a military operation stop aggression and stop supporting and financing the illegitimate Ukrainian "authorities".

We apply to the multinational people of the Russian Federation, to our Russian brothers, to the authorities of the Russian Federation and to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin in person with a request to render diplomatic, humanitarian and, if possible, military aid to the Donetsk People's Republic, to act as a guarantor of its security, to curb the presumptuous death squads, to establish peace and to ensure the holding of peaceful nationwide referendum.

We ask the multinational people of the Russian Federation, our Russian brothers, the authorities of the Russian Federation and Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin in person to consider extending recognition to the Donetsk People's Republic as an international entity and concluding a treaty of political, economical and military cooperation with it.

We, the people of all the 180 ethnic groups living in Donbass, are Russians.
We were born as Russians, we live as Russians and we shall die as Russians if need be.
God and Russia are with us.

The enemy will be crushed.
The victory will be ours!"

https://plus.google.com/+EvaTornado/posts/ENQzSYSCgvz
 

TrueSpirit1

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Ukraine on brink of civil war: Vladimir Putin | Latest News & Updates at Daily News & Analysis


Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine is on the verge of civil war, the Kremlin said on Wednesday, after the Kiev government sent in troops against pro-Moscow separatists in the east of the country.

"The Russian president remarked that the sharp escalation of the conflict has placed the country, in effect, on the verge of civil war," the Kremlin said in a statement on telephone talks between Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

But the leaders both "emphasised the importance" of planned four-way talks on Ukraine on Thursday between top diplomats of Russia, the European Union, the United States and Ukraine.

Ukraine pushed tanks towards a flashpoint eastern city on Tuesday to quash a separatist surge backed by Moscow – a high-risk operation that was sharply condemned by the Kremlin but won Washington's support.

The 20 tanks and armoured personnel carriers sent to Slavyansk were the most forceful response yet by the Western-backed government in Kiev to the pro-Kremlin militants' occupation of state buildings in nearly 10 cities across Ukraine's rust belt.

"They must be warned that if they do not lay down their arms, they will be destroyed," Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) General Vasyl Krutov told a group of reporters tracking the sudden tank movements.

'Untenable' situation

He insisted that the militants were receiving support from several hundred soldiers from the Russian army's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) that had been dispatched to Slavyansk and surrounding villages.

The economically depressed industrial city of 100,000 has effectively been under the control of separatist gunmen since Saturday.

Ukrainian troops were also helicoptered into a military aerodrome at Kramatorsk, south of Slavyansk which the interior ministry said was "liberated" without any casualties.

However pro-Russia activist Oleg Issanka said the troops had opened fire injuring two people.

The Kremlin statement described the actions of the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine as an "anti-constitutional course to use force against peaceful protest actions".

Kiev's response to the eastern insurgency prompted Putin to tell UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon that Moscow "expects clear condemnation from the United Nations and the international community of the anti-constitutional actions" by Ukraine.

Ban in turn "expressed his alarm about the highly volatile situation in eastern Ukraine" and told the Russian leader that everyone involved needed to "work to de-escalate the situation", his office said.

But the White House described Ukraine's military operation as a "measured" response to a lawless insurgency that had put the government in an "untenable" situation.

The threat of all-out war breaking out just beyond the European Union's eastern frontier sent stock markets across Europe tumbling on Tuesday.

"New fears about Ukraine worried the market and could, at any time, send it plunging once again," said Saxo Bank analyst Andrea Tueni.

'Frank' Putin-Obama talks

The rapid turn of events on the ground was preceded by a telephone conversation Monday between US President Barack Obama and Putin that the White House described as "frank and direct".

The Kremlin chief continued to reject any links to the Russian-speaking gunmen who have proclaimed the creation of their own independent republic and asked Putin to send in the 40,000 troops now massed along Russia's border with Ukraine.

But Obama accused Moscow of supporting "armed pro-Russian separatists who threaten to undermine and destabilise the government of Ukraine".

The worst East-West standoff since the Cold War was exacerbated over the weekend by a Russian warplane "buzzing" a US destroyer in the Black Sea and a visit to Kiev by CIA chief John Brennan that was confirmed by the White House and condemned by Moscow.

The US meanwhile said it was coordinating with its European allies to slap more sanctions on Russia over the crisis.

"Our national security team is in active discussions about the next round of sanctions," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters.

She added however that new measures were unlikely before the highly anticipated EU-US mediated talks on Thursday in Geneva between Moscow and Kiev.
 

TrueSpirit1

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Donetsk's pro-Russians 'defending our people from fascists and the West' - European News | Latest News from Across Europe | The Irish Times - Wed, Apr 16, 2014

Donetsk's pro-Russians 'defending our people from fascists and the West'

"They won't get a nice welcome in Donetsk, let's just say that," said Volodya, waving a baton of rolled-up leaflets towards Ukrainian troops he imagined approaching from Kiev.
"Those who come with good intentions are treated well here. But woe betide anyone who thinks they can push Donetsk around. We're tough – miners, metalworkers, builders – we know how to work, and how to fight."
At 71, Volodya said he was too old to man the barricades outside this city's looming local government building, which is now plastered with posters denouncing the European Union, the United States and the new government in Kiev.

Russian flags
It also bristles with Russian flags and the tricolour of the Donetsk People's Republic, whose creation was announced by pro-Moscow activists who seized the building last week.
The barricades of old metal and tyres are guarded by men who wear balaclavas and orange-and-black ribbons that are traditional Russian emblems of the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany, and now symbolise resistance toKiev.
"We are defending our people. Defending our rights," says one young man, who declined to give his name and occasionally clanged a heavy iron rod on the ground.
"From what?" he laughed mirthlessly, incredulous at the question. "From the fascists. And from the West, who paid for all the chaos in Kiev."
Donetsk, a million-strong city surrounded by Soviet-era coalmines and heavy industry, is the hub of resistance to the uprising that ousted President Viktor Yanukovich and ushered in a pro-western government backed by nationalists whom critics call Russian-hating neo-Nazis.

'Slaves to the EU'
People across this region are sceptical or openly hostile to what they call a cabal of corrupt politicians from western and central Ukraine, who came to power on the back of a bloody coup sponsored by Washington and Brussels.
"The government doesn't listen to us, it doesn't care about us. They want to ban the Russian language and make us slaves to the EU and Nato. What good are they to us? Russia is here, next to us, our brotherly nation, and they want to cut us off from each other," said Olya Mironenko, a retired teacher in Donetsk.
Like many people here, she associates the West above all with the misery of the 1990s, when the promise of market democracy delivered poverty, violence and corruption to the former Soviet Union, and its republics were forced to go cap-in-hand to their cold war adversaries for aid. They have not forgotten that humiliation, and expect something similar from the prospect of integration with the EU.
"The bandits in Kiev don't want to talk to us and now they are sending in tanks and God knows what else to bomb us. We have to defend ourselves – and we have to ask Russia for help," Ms Mironenko said.
Kiev and the West say Russia is already here, in the shape of the men in camouflage, carrying modern Russian weapons, who have seized official buildings in about 10 towns in Donetsk region in recent days.
Ukraine's security services claim to have arrested more than a dozen Russian operatives and intercepted phone calls that reveal the unrest is co-ordinated by Russian intelligence agents and "political technologists" close to the Kremlin.

In the case of several towns around Donetsk, the buildings were stormed by small, well-armed and apparently well-drilled units, before being handed over to local activists who are unhappy with the new government.
Moscow may be exploiting and intensifying instability in the east, but local people are angry with the new government, and unnerved by the prospect of being ruled by people from regions that had little influence under Donetsk-born Yanukovich.
He is denounced by many people in Donetsk and surrounding towns, but less for the corruption and brutality of his regime than for fleeing protests in Kiev and hiding in Russia – leaving his people in the lurch to face the new order without him.
"We supported him through that mess in 2004 – the Orange Revolution thing," said Viktor Shevchuk, a Donetsk electrician, looking ready to spit at the memory of Ukraine's previous, ill-fated turn to the West.
"And we made him president, and supported him right to the end, against the fascists — and he ran away. He's a coward. The boys inside there are a better bunch."
He gestured towards the Donetsk administration, as Soviet martial music blasted from loudspeakers at the end of another speech that compared Kiev's new rulers to 1940s' Ukrainian guerrillas who sometimes allied with the Nazis against the Red Army.
The protesters around Donetsk region vow to hold the besieged buildings until the government grants them a referendum on greater autonomy or, according to some, on whether to split from Ukraine and join Russia.
Kiev sees Moscow behind a plan for "federalisation" that would weaken the pro-EU government, strengthen more Russia-friendly regions and, as premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk puts it, potentially create a host of "mini-Yanukovichs" across the east.
Mr Yatsenyuk and his colleagues say they are ready to boost the powers of local government, but not to allow the Kremlin to continue a process of dismembering Ukraine that began with the annexation of Crimea – under the guns of other "self-defence volunteers" who were clearly Russian servicemen.

Cabinet under pressure
Having lost Crimea without a fight, the cabinet is under huge pressure from the protesters who brought it to power to crack down hard on "separatists" in the east, whom they regard as puppets of a Russia that will not accept a pro-western Ukraine.
Last night, a skirmish near an airfield at Kramatorsk and the sight of Ukrainian army vehicles near Slovyansk – both places about 100km from Donetsk – were taken as signs that Kiev's promised "anti-terrorist" operation could be swinging into action.
If it is, Donetsk's defiant protesters expect trouble to come their way very soon. "We expect to be stormed at any moment," said Denis Pushilin, a local businessman who now claims to lead the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic.
"No one here is scared," he added. "That's why we're here."
 

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