U.S. Intelligence: China's Stealth Fighter Deployment in 2018!

Martian

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I post a thread about China's stealth fighter from the congressional testimony of an U.S. intelligence expert on China's military technology. Instead of comments that are relevant to the issue of China's stealth fighter, I have to read the usual drivel of Russia is so much better, blah, blah, blah.

Get it through your head Armand2REP, no one cares about Russia except for its nuclear weapons. The Russian military industrial complex is in shambles (e.g. see 15-year multibillion dollar endless Bulava SLBM program). The United States is focused on China's conventional military technological developments, not Russia's.

The United States military believes that "China is the only near-peer."

""For the first time ever, we're really taking into account the location" of would-be adversaries, said retired Vice Adm. Timothy LaFleur of San Diego, former commander of Naval Surface Forces and now an executive with the defense consulting company Booz Allen Hamilton. 'Clearly, China is the only near-peer threat that's out there.'" See China's military rebirth prompts U.S. response - Military - SignOnSanDiego.com

Nukes in the Taiwan Crisis FAS Strategic Security Blog

"The following year, in October 1997, President Clinton signed Presidential Decision Directive (PDD)-60, which lowered the targeting requirement against Russia but reportedly at the same time broadened the spectrum of Chinese facilities that could be attacked with nuclear weapons to include the country's growing military-industrial complex and improved conventional forces. Despite the implications, one official told Washington Post, there was "no debate with respect to the targeting of China."
...
It was around this time that the Bush administration's Nuclear Posture Review in late 2001 identified a military confrontation over the status of Taiwan as an "immediate contingency" influencing the sizing [of] U.S. nuclear forces. China, due to its still evolving strategic objectives and ongoing modernization of nuclear and non nuclear forces, was described as a country that "could be involved in an immediate or potential contingency."
...
CHISOP or not, however, the March 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review underscored the central status of China in U.S. planning: "Of the major and emerging powers, China has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States" as it "continues to invest heavily in its military, particularly in its strategic arsenal and capabilities designed to improve its ability to project power beyond its borders."

List of countries by military expenditures - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The United States has the world's largest military budget at $607 billion dollars.
China has the world's second largest military budget at $84.9 billion dollars.

The United States is worried about China because China's military budget keeps growing by double-digits year after year.

U.S. Says China's Defense Spending Is Rising Fast - washingtonpost.com

2009: China's Military Budget Continues Double-Digit Growth
 
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Martian

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Armand2REP, take a look for yourself at the powerful and innovative Russian Federation with 204 U.S. patents granted last year by the United States Patent and Trademark Office. I think it's ridiculous to claim that Russia is a country of innovation and technology. Russia's innovation in civilian technology is non-existent and I'm not holding my breath on Russian military technology.

For 2009, China passed Italy to claim the ninth-highest rank for countries that receive the most patents in the United States.

Patents By Country, State, and Year - All Patent Types (December 2009)

Patents granted by the United States for the year 2009.

1. U.S. 95,037 patents
2. Japan 38,066
(Greater China 10,638)
3. Germany 10,353
4. South Korea 9,566
5. Taiwan 7,781
6. Canada 4,393
7. U.K. 4,011
8. France 3,805
9. China 2,270
10. Italy 1,837
...
India 720
Hong Kong 587 (Patent office counts Hong Kong as a separate entity)
Singapore 493
Russian Federation 204
Brazil 148

For 2009, Greater China's 10,638 combined total patents (i.e. China's 2,270 + Taiwan's 7,781 + Hong Kong's 587) are greater than Germany's 10,353 patents. Greater China would rank third on the U.S. patent list. The patent ranks are important because they help to explain why China is the world's largest exporter and Germany is the world's second-largest exporter. Patents play an important role.

----------
[Note: These are my comments from last year on "Greater China outnumbers German patents."

There are 70,000 Taiwanese companies on the Chinese Mainland. It is my guess that many Chinese exports incorporate not only Chinese patents, but also Taiwanese patents. The Taiwanese were a perennial #4 in U.S. patents received until they were passed by South Korea in 2008.

While the current number of Chinese patents appears to be insufficient to support a large high-tech export base, the combination of Greater China (i.e. Chinese, Taiwanese, and Hong Kong) patents should suffice.

Greater China's 10,370 patents (i.e. China's 1,874 + Taiwan's 7,779 + Hong Kong's 717) are greater than the number of German patents at 10,086.

Taiwan (10/09)
"Significant migration to Taiwan from the Chinese mainland began as early as A.D. 500. ..... There are a number of small political parties, including the Taiwan .... in China, and more than 70000 Taiwan companies have operations there. .... In keeping with our one China policy, the U.S. does not support Taiwan ..."
 

badguy2000

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Badguy what happened to your claim China will have a 5th generation prototype out before the Russians??
well, guy, I just suggested that China 5G bird prototype might fly in 2010, but I never pledged that CHina 5 G bird prototype will fly surely before Russia's one.

At most, I once said that Chinese 5G bird prototype might fly before Russia's one, if Russia's 5G bird is delayed again.

It was MR. Vlamdire pledged that he would hang himself,if CHinese 5G prototype were to fly before russia's one.

in fact, nobody can assure which is to enter service ,of CHina's 5G bird and Russia's one, although Russia's first prototype fly a bit earlier than CHina's one.

the race is not over yet.
 
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sayareakd

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well, guy, I just suggested that China 5G bird prototype might fly in 2010, but I never pledged that CHina 5 G bird prototype will fly surely before Russia's one.

At most, I once said that Chinese 5G bird prototype might fly before Russia's one, if Russia's 5G bird is delayed again.

In fact, Russia's 5G bird prototype just started its first flight several months ago and CHina's 5G bird prototype is widely thought to fly this year too.

Russia just won the race by a neck.
Let the chines test fly their jet first, then post the comment which is put in bold. Russians has already won the race.
 

badguy2000

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Let the chines test fly their jet first, then post the comment which is put in bold. Russians has already won the race.
it is a long way from "prototype" to "enter into service".


the race just starts,guy.
 
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Armand2REP

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I find anti-China posts like yours to be annoying. Five years ago, China built an Aegis-class destroyer with AESA radar. This is something that Russia has not been able to do. Also, China has built a Trident-class Julang-2 SLBM, while Russia has spent 15 years on the Bulava with no end in sight. Please spare me the Russia is so much more advanced than China propaganda.
I find Chinese fanboy posts like yours to be annoying. Five years ago China built a destroyer that has no features of an AEGIS destroyer and has no AESA radar. AEGIS is a combat system that ties in land, sea, and air into one control, China does not have this and if you knew anything about what AEGIS really was, you wouldn't be making such stupid comments. China has also built new SSBNs that don't have missiles, just like the Russkies. Please spare me the Chinese are so much better than the Russians, you are both having a bunch of failed programmes. It is no coincidence that all new PLAN surface vessles have Russian Fregat radar and all new destroyers have S-300 Rif. What happened to your precious AEGIS destroyers? = failed programme...

[Note to Armand2REP: If you insist in coming into my threads to spew your anti-China propaganda, you will give me no choice but to create a new thread and compare China's technology to Russian technology. I have plenty of newslinks to back up my claim. If you do not desist then I will have to create a new thread and put your claim to the test.]
Note to Martian: If you insist on starting stupid threads that spew USAF F-22 sales propaganda, I will be happy to debunk them. If you feel the need of starting a thread comparing Chinese clones of Soviet tech to Russian tech, I will be happy to compare that to. What would really interest me is if you would be dumb enough to compare French tech to Sino tech, then we can all laugh you out of the room.
 

Martian

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I find Chinese fanboy posts like yours to be annoying. Five years ago China built a destroyer that has no features of an AEGIS destroyer and has no AESA radar. AEGIS is a combat system that ties in land, sea, and air into one control, China does not have this and if you knew anything about what AEGIS really was, you wouldn't be making such stupid comments. China has also built new SSBNs that don't have missiles, just like the Russkies. Please spare me the Chinese are so much better than the Russians, you are both having a bunch of failed programmes. It is no coincidence that all new PLAN surface vessles have Russian Fregat radar and all new destroyers have S-300 Rif. What happened to your precious AEGIS destroyers? = failed programme...
Let's take a look at the "47-page report, entitled, 'A Modern Navy with Chinese Characteristics'" written by the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI). "ONI is the oldest member of the United States Intelligence Community, and is also therefore by default the senior intelligence agency within the armed forces."

China's ASBM program is the "Most worrisome for the US Navy's pre-eminence in the region...the ASBM's peculiar flight path, involving a mid-course trajectory correction, will make it very difficult to intercept."

Measuring The Chinese Fleet : Marport

"Measuring The Chinese Fleet
January 27, 2010 · Posted in Industry News, Underwater Defence



A mistake by a US Navy intelligence official has given the world an unexpected peek into the secret world of China's navy. The US Office for Naval Intelligence (ONI) committed the blunder of posting, on an open website, the agency's assessment of the state of the Chinese navy. Before the ONI could rectify this indiscretion by pulling off the report, it had been downloaded and posted on publicly accessible websites.

The 47-page report, entitled, "A Modern Navy with Chinese Characteristics", is still posted on the website of the Federation of American Scientists, a policy advocacy body at:
http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/oni/pla-navy.pdf
...
The PLA(N)'s most key acquisition, says the ONI report, is a sophisticated anti-air capability, which would allow its ships to operate in "distant seas", far from land-based air-defence systems. The Luyang I class of destroyers, already formidable, have been followed by the Luyang II class and the Jiangkai II frigates, which are linked with an air-surveillance network as good as America's world-standard Aegis system.

Submarines, both conventional and nuclear, will be a key deterrent in the PLA(N). The ONI report says that Beijing will replace its large number of low-tech submarines with "smaller numbers of modern, high-capability boats (submarines)". But while the number of surface ships remains constant, today's fleet of 62 submarines will increase over the next 10-15 years to 75. [In that time-frame, India's submarine fleet will be about one-third that of China's.]

Most worrisome for the US Navy's pre-eminence in the region, is the programme to develop the world's first Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM), a variant of China's Dong Feng – 21 missile. The ONI report reveals that the ASBM's peculiar flight path, involving a mid-course trajectory correction, will make it very difficult to intercept."


Office of Naval Intelligence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"The Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) was established in the United States Navy in 1882. ONI was established to "seek out and report" on the advancements in other nations' navies. Its headquarters are at the National Maritime Intelligence Center in Suitland, Maryland. ONI is the oldest member of the United States Intelligence Community, and is also therefore by default the senior intelligence agency within the armed forces."
 

Martian

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I find Chinese fanboy posts like yours to be annoying. Five years ago China built a destroyer that has no features of an AEGIS destroyer and has no AESA radar. AEGIS is a combat system that ties in land, sea, and air into one control, China does not have this and if you knew anything about what AEGIS really was, you wouldn't be making such stupid comments. China has also built new SSBNs that don't have missiles, just like the Russkies. Please spare me the Chinese are so much better than the Russians, you are both having a bunch of failed programmes. It is no coincidence that all new PLAN surface vessles have Russian Fregat radar and all new destroyers have S-300 Rif. What happened to your precious AEGIS destroyers? = failed programme...
In the high-tech field of advanced Aegis battlespace technology and direct-ascent ASAT (the precursor to national ballistic missile defense technology), China has already surpassed Europe, Japan, and Russia. The Europeans and Japanese buy their Aegis systems from the United States. The Russians can't build an Aegis-class system. When it comes to Aegis technology and direct-ascent ASAT, only China and the United States possess these two critical high-profile high-tech technologies.

Comparable to the Arleigh Burke class, China has deployed two Chinese Aegis destroyers with advanced active phased array radar (i.e. AESA). As far as I know, Russians are incapable of building an advanced Aegis-class destroyer.

SIGNAL Magazine - Reading Loud and Clear

"The People's Liberation Army Navy recently introduced two domestically designed and built guided missile destroyers that include Aegis-type radars and related technologies. Known as Project 052C guided missile destroyers (DDGs), the ships feature Aegis-type phased array panels, vertical launch systems, long-range missiles and considerable command and control. These capabilities were not found on any previous Chinese-built DDGs.

The design of a lead ship with prototype Aegis radar, combat direction links and a vertical launch system (VLS) into a small 6,600-ton hull is an ambitious development. The smallest U.S. Navy Aegis ship with VLS is the 8,400-ton Arleigh Burke-class DDG 51. Russia had its Aegis-equivalent Sky Watch system only on 30,000-ton aircraft carriers. The nine years of sea test development prior to the U.S. Navy's first installing Aegis on the warship USS Ticonderoga CG 47 indicates the complexity and the engineering effort necessary to build a successful Aegis system. The fact that the Soviet Union gave up on an Aegis system after years of frustrating problems on two warships also shows the extreme difficulties."

The only two countries in the world that build Aegis-class warships are US Lockheed Martin and China (see Type 052C (Luyang-II Class) Missile Destroyer - SinoDefence.com). The Japanese, Koreans, Spaniards, and Norwegian Aegis-class systems are purchased from the US. Japan Buys Another Aegis System In the following video, the second surface ship that you see is the Chinese Aegis-class ship.

 
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Armand2REP

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ASBM.... lol

China is so far away from making an ASBM I will have grandchildren by then. The report is another propaganda tool to secure SM-3 ABM funding. If you had bothered to read the rest it will tell you China is nothing but a brown water navy.

Type 052C was a failed project as I already stated. They scrapped it and went for the Russian equipped 051C. If you had been following PLAN you would know that.
 
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Armand2REP

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You have absolutely zero credibility. I provide excerpts from a 47-page report by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence and your reply is more empty rhetoric? You are unreal and delusional.
You haven't provided anything except regurgitation of China.mil press releases and white papers. That is all these reports to Congress are so they can play up the threat to secure more funding. I have provided clear examples of WHY it isn't what they say it is, not your proverbial nonsense. If China has an indigenous AEGIS destroyer equipped with functioning AESA antennas, why would they cancel it and order two more DDGs with Russian systems? Why would they equip all of their new build FFGs with Russian radars? Take the two pieces of the cookie and put it together, then you get the whole picture.
 

Martian

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Look people, this is pretty simple. You can either believe the conspiracy nut or the man with the newslinks. I base my reasoning on facts obtained from reputable sources. The conspiracy nut spouts whatever conspiracy that he perceives in his head. He is deranged.

You can choose to believe whomever you want. There is a difference between disliking China and rejecting facts. The former is understandable, but the latter turns you into a conspiracy nut.

I can sum up the view of a conspiracy nut in one sentence: Everybody else in the world is lying (e.g. Office of Naval Intelligence, SIGNAL magazine, Wikipedia, every mainstream news source, every military analyst, observations of military tests such as China's ASAT test, etc.), but the conspiracy nut prophet is the only one privy to the truth.

Give me a break.
 

Armand2REP

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It is pretty simple, I have Chinese procurement FACTS on my side. You have CCP propaganda and the people that buy it on yours.
 

gogbot

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your information is soo outdated.
I have been following China since 2008 , i doubt i missed much

a commendation meeting for the Chinese scientists in charge of R&D of AESA was already hold in 2008,because they succeeded in finishing AESA. in fact, J10B already has AESA on. when CHinese 5G bird enter into service, China's next G AESA should roll out already.
The J-10B was speculated to have have an AESA radar , due to its nose.
There was not other information than that. Its far fetched for you say China's AESA systems have beaten European rivals to fighter Bourne AESA on Multi role fighters

CD reports that 4-5 China's level-9.0 engines for its 5G bird have been already assembled for gound-tests. it is esimated that China's level-9.0 engine should be mature in 5 years or so.
Your joking right,

WS-10 is barely of the production line.

China's 5th gen engine's are few years away from testing .

all above informantion are reported by CD. The reports there always several months earlier than Janes and Kanwa.
what information exactly , details tend to get muddled or changed.
give me the original links , ill read for my self.

I really do wonder about Chinese radar advancement. HQ-9 is supposed to have a PESA engagement radar, but the engagement radar for the HQQ-9 is not PESA and the radar they tought for HQ-9 looks exactly like the Russian. I'm thinking they are still buying engagement radars from Russia. So I do agree, they have not reached a modern PESA much less any hope of an AESA.

As far as the engines, Chinese are stuck at a standstill. They don't appear to have the technology for crystal blades according to reports. Another flaw in their engine design I have pointed out before, they do not have Iris nozzles which is going to hurt the performance of the WS-10A and any other engine they pull out. They aren't anywhere close to a 5th generation engine, they haven't even closed to 4th. Even PAK FA will not have 5th generation engines until its MLU, but the 4++ 117S.
Still , 117S still let testing on the TVC and Super cruise and how they work with the airframe and FCL, proceed

Something China can still not do , let alone accomplish TVC or SC , they have to take that one step further and make the engine 5th gen and harder to detect.

The best missile made in China is the PL-12. Speculation has been that they are full of Russian seekers and data links to get the listed specs. Quite frankly I don't think China has a missile on the level of RVV-SD and PL-12 is nothing but what it looks like. A copied version of AIM-7. If they could make a Chinese-SLAMMER, more countries would buy it than just Pakistan. And if it had Russian parts, we would have heard about their components needing approval to be sold to Pakistan. On top of that, Pakistan wouldn't be begging us to be selling the 60km MICA if China could sell them a 100km PL-12.
I would say China's 5th gen programme can't even begin until they get these fundamentals down. You can't skip from 3rd to 5th generation in 8 years, especially if they have nothing to copy. I don't see anyone handing them a 5th generation fighter in the next 8 years.
Armand despite me agreeing with you on a number of points.

I think you are underestimating Chinese R&D on some accounts , specifically while you point out the lack of expertise and technology in China currently, you miss the fact that they have access to far more resources finical and human.

They do have enough money and recruits to put in place a serious effort , when working on sertain projects

You can't count them out so easily.

given the resources available , you cant escape the fact that it is only inevitable before China acquires most technologies they still do not have.



well, guy, I just suggested that China 5G bird prototype might fly in 2010, but I never pledged that CHina 5 G bird prototype will fly surely before Russia's one.
At most, I once said that Chinese 5G bird prototype might fly before Russia's one, if Russia's 5G bird is delayed again.
It was MR. Vlamdire pledged that he would hang himself,if CHinese 5G prototype were to fly before russia's one.
in fact, nobody can assure which is to enter service ,of CHina's 5G bird and Russia's one, although Russia's first prototype fly a bit earlier than CHina's one.
the race is not over yet.
What delusion . lol
There was never any race to begin with. China barely has an Indigenous engine by the time the Pak-fa too to the skies.
 
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Armand2REP

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Still , 117S still let testing on the TVC and Super cruise and how they work with the airframe and FCL, proceed

Something China can still not do , let alone accomplish TVC or SC , they have to take that one step further and make the engine 5th gen and harder to detect.
That is what I was getting at with the Iris nozzles. TVC is not possible unless you can control the thrust flow in different regimes which is what Iris does. China doesn't have it nor will they get SC without it. It is a perquisite for high performance turbofans.

Armand despite me agreeing with you on a number of points.

I think you are underestimating Chinese R&D on some accounts , specifically while you point out the lack of expertise and technology in China currently, you miss the fact that they have access to far more resources finical and human.

They do have enough money and recruits to put in place a serious effort , when working on sertain projects
There are three things required to take on serious technical breakthroughs (Capital/Expertise/Management). China has the capital, what they don't have is expertise and effective project management. Like Russia, China has faced a brain drain for many years. The three top places Chinese graduates want to go are US/S. Korea/France. So our countries absorb the brains of the Chinese while they are left with poor products of the Chinese education system. Of those who go to school abroad, less than half come back. Chinese SOEs don't have to compete with anyone so their management skills are quite frankly... BAD. This is doubly true for the defence companies who don't even compete internally. Corruption has really taken its toll on their capabilities. It draws parallels to many of Russia's industrial problems.

You can't count them out so easily.

given the resources available , you cant escape the fact that it is only inevitable before China acquires most technologies they still do not have.
China will get them... but the question is when. They have been working on turbofans for the last 30 years and still no luck. By the time they actually acquire all the technologies countries like the US and France have now, they will be 20-30 years obsolete when China gets them. China's reverse-engineering has really hit a roadblock with Russia refusing to export their post-Soviet technology and the old weapons ban from Tienanmen.
 

badguy2000

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I have been following China since 2008 , i doubt i missed much



The J-10B was speculated to have have an AESA radar , due to its nose.
There was not other information than that. Its far fetched for you say China's AESA systems have beaten European rivals to fighter Bourne AESA on Multi role fighters
pls read my previous post. Once, I posted a speical thread about CHinese AESA already.

Your joking right,

WS-10 is barely of the production line.

China's 5th gen engine's are few years away from testing .

what information exactly , details tend to get muddled or changed.
give me the original links , ill read for my self.
the R&D of China's level-9.0 engine started long ago . of course ,it just starts the ground test and it will take many years to mature it.
here the link of CD. but I am afraid that you can not read it, because you can not read CHinese.
the informantion about CHinese weapons are quite reliable and much earlier than Janes and Kanwa.
In fact, many information about CHinese miliarty of Janes and Kanwa quote CD,of course ,usually several months later.
http://bbs.cjdby.net/
 

A.V.

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badguy let me say there are many such cds and offiial reports from so called specialists in russia too and the western media pick on them and publish it so let us keep this CD talk out because if it came true then russia as per CD and special insiders must be running a dozen tank development programs and atleast 2 dozen missile programs.

so lets keep the unofficial secret news from insiders to a minimum and talk about whats at hand and is published with proff...
thanks
 

badguy2000

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badguy let me say there are many such cds and offiial reports from so called specialists in russia too and the western media pick on them and publish it so let us keep this CD talk out because if it came true then russia as per CD and special insiders must be running a dozen tank development programs and atleast 2 dozen missile programs.

so lets keep the unofficial secret news from insiders to a minimum and talk about whats at hand and is published with proff...
thanks
well, guy. at first ,I am not serious to informantion from CD either. however, many cases prove that CD indeed is a much reliable information resource than Janes and Kanwa,such as J10,J10B, J15,WS10...etc.
in fact, all above example were linked in CD first, then cited later by Janes and Kanwa.
 

Armand2REP

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Who can take CD seriously when it is a bunch of 50 cent Army posters? Lets just browse a little,

S. Korean torpedo evidence a fake. lol
Chinese Army parade, expressions more serious than West. lol
IRA will destroy the British. lol
New AC being built at Dalian (pic of Varyag.) lol

That website is a joke. You will get much better information here.
 
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well, guy, I just suggested that China 5G bird prototype might fly in 2010, but I never pledged that CHina 5 G bird prototype will fly surely before Russia's one.

At most, I once said that Chinese 5G bird prototype might fly before Russia's one, if Russia's 5G bird is delayed again.

It was MR. Vlamdire pledged that he would hang himself,if CHinese 5G prototype were to fly before russia's one.

in fact, nobody can assure which is to enter service ,of CHina's 5G bird and Russia's one, although Russia's first prototype fly a bit earlier than CHina's one.

the race is not over yet.
Badguy forget about the fifth generation bird flying and get your fourth generation birds in the air first.
 

Agantrope

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yeah going by the past chines world record where the JF 17 enter production just under 1000 days from the first test flight, i hope you will break that record with this JF XX fighter.

Best of luck........................
lol!!! Well said. PLAF recently rejected the J-11 or J-10B A/C :D. Stealth AC that soon is really difficult.

This may be a trick to make US Congress to buy more Raptors, nothing more than that.
 

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