Can you elaborate what concerns Afghanistan's neighbours have?I never said that the interests of the neighboring states are more important than that of the Afghans. However, Afghanistan (or any other country for that matter) cannot live in isolation. Peace and prosperity in Afghanistan is tightly linked to its relations with its neighbors. American’s presence is not welcomed by any of the Afghanistan’s neighbor hence any government in Kabul relying heavily on Washington and ignoring the concerns of its neighbors will not last for long.
Ok, let's be more objective in this discussion.
First, a few facts on the ground. All of the neighbours would like to see a situation where Afghan refugees spill over to their countries. Also, the majority of Afghan are Sunni, which puts them somewhat at odd with Iran
Here are the neighbours of Afghanistan
- Tajikistan: they seem to be getting along pretty well with Afghanistan. They now have joint investments and would hate to lose it all in a taliban resurgence
- Uzbekistan: I really, really doubt if they would want a Taliban resurgence, given the treatment meted out to Uzbek rebels by the Taliban.
- Turkmenistan: Same as Tajikistan
- Iran: After 9/11, Iran had signalled to the US that it would not oppose a US military intervention in Afghanistan. I agree that it would not like a US controlled govt. either, but I don't think they really want the Sunni Taliban
- China: China had so far supported the US war, if only by not raising issues against it. Recently though, China has openly come out in support for a solution which would include India. In other words, China has endorsed Pakistan's stand to put pressure on India. However China would be wary of a hardcore Islamist govt. in Afghanistan, due to its concerns about linkages with the Uighur problem. you would note that they have recently started engaing the Karzai government.
- Russia: I am sure Russi does not appreciate the US operating in its backyard, especially where she has failed decades ago, But I doubt they would want the Taliban to come back. You would have noted that they have started promising mmilitary help to the current Afghan government.
- Pakistan: The one country that would clearly prefer a "Good" Taliban to about everything else.
So to sum up
- The CAR nations (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan) have a lot to,lose and little to gain if the Taliban take over. Currently a stable Afghanistan with whom they can do business seems to be their best bet. Of course, they are also relatively lower in importance
- The big guys (Iran, Russia, China Pakistan) would really prefer not to have a US backed govt. However, Iran and Russia would like to avoid the Taliban too.
- China is in for Pakistan. But she would prefer not to have a strict islamist govt. due to the implications for Uighurs
- Pakistan is the only country which would like to see democracy fail in Afghanistan and the Taliban take over. It also is the only one (apart from China, which has the same objective anyway) likely to have onging "concerns" with the current govt. due to its closeness with India.
To shorten this even further, a democratic Afghanistan, backed by the Us and friendly with India is a concern for Pakistan and cannot be allowed to happen
I am sure that you have the sources to back this up but are not doing so due to OPSEC reasons.Type of the battle American are fighting in Afghanistan can only be won if the masses of Afghans support them. Contrary to the surveys, masses of Afghan do not support the NATO/ISAF forces. Taliban might be their enemy, but the NATO/ISAF are also not taken as the liberators.