The TuAF is in a bad position as the IAF. They are facing increasing limitations in operating their older F-16s. The purging of their pilots was not a smart move either by Erdogan back in 2016.
After Erdogan said that
Turkey would buy the jets from Germany, Scholz just dropped a bomb:
View attachment 229991
Looks like the Americans arm-twisted the UK and Germany into refusing the EFT. France is a no-no and the US is playing hardball.
That makes Russia and China the only other options until their local 5th-generation fighter KAAN is launched around the 2030s.
Hurjet cannot replace F-16s as it is a LIFT aircraft.
The US has been going hard against Ankara for the last four years.
Turkey might retaliate in three ways:
1. Let Russian warships transit the Bosphorus freely for a few trips until the US comes to the table.
2. Constricts ammunition and drone supply to Ukraine (while American attention is diverted towards the Israel-Hamas war)
3. Clamp down hard against the Armenian lobby in Washington by arming Azerbaijan with more of their armoured weapons and getting directly involved in the ongoing covert war between the two.