Trump Administration to Tighten Screws on Pakistan

mendosa

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Could this FP shift be a result of India's F-16 moves?
There's no FP shift, this was the plan all along. They cultivated a 'threat' to force India to buy weapons against that threat. That's how goons blackmail others in ghettos. They tell businessmen that there are many other goons out there and they will offer protection if you give them money. The goons might even attack you to send you a message that the threat is real and you must not delay the purchase of protection.

If you respond favorably, they will keep doing this to you forever.

They wanted favorable mining rights over the Iron Ore and Bauxite mines in central India. When we refused, they gave support to the Naxals, now we have to offer some sort of favorable deal to American businesses in order for them to stop funding the Naxals. It's their SOP. Wherever there are American interests, they start an insurgency and then blackmail the host country to give them favorable deals in exchange for helping them tame the insurgency. The CIA singularly kept the Farc rebels armed and funded for so many years before dismantling them, only after the US got a favorable deal with the country.

It's a bad move to respond favorably to blackmail. If we buy the F16 now, then they will give submarines to Pakistan and offer to sell us anti-submarine missiles. The best way is to let Pakistan use the American weapons to kill American soldiers in Afghanistan, instead of India buying bigger American weapons to fight against smaller American weapons given to Pakistan. This will mess up American calculations big time. Now they wont have the big ticket sales they hoped and their own soldiers will be killed with the weapons they gave to Pakistan as an 'investment'.
 

Project Dharma

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There's no FP shift, this was the plan all along. They cultivated a 'threat' to force India to buy weapons against that threat. That's how goons blackmail others in ghettos. They tell businessmen that there are many other goons out there and they will offer protection if you give them money. The goons might even attack you to send you a message that the threat is real and you must not delay the purchase of protection.

If you respond favorably, they will keep doing this to you forever.

They wanted favorable mining rights over the Iron Ore and Bauxite mines in central India. When we refused, they gave support to the Naxals, now we have to offer some sort of favorable deal to American businesses in order for them to stop funding the Naxals. It's their SOP. Wherever there are American interests, they start an insurgency and then blackmail the host country to give them favorable deals in exchange for helping them tame the insurgency. The CIA singularly kept the Farc rebels armed and funded for so many years before dismantling them, only after the US got a favorable deal with the country.

It's a bad move to respond favorably to blackmail. If we buy the F16 now, then they will give submarines to Pakistan and offer to sell us anti-submarine missiles. The best way is to let Pakistan use the American weapons to kill American soldiers in Afghanistan, instead of India buying bigger American weapons to fight against smaller American weapons given to Pakistan. This will mess up American calculations big time. Now they wont have the big ticket sales they hoped and their own soldiers will be killed with the weapons they gave to Pakistan as an 'investment'.
Interesting, how about agreeing to grant the Americans "Most Favored Arms Seller" status or something along those lines in exchange for

1) A blanket ban on selling arms to Pakistan
2) Commitment to make in India, transfer technology

Of course they still need to go through the regular tender process so that we ensure they are competitive on price..
 

mendosa

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Interesting, how about agreeing to grant the Americans "Most Favored Arms Seller" status or something along those lines in exchange for

1) A blanket ban on selling arms to Pakistan
2) Commitment to make in India, transfer technology

Of course they still need to go through the regular tender process so that we ensure they are competitive on price..
We have a lot of cards, but a card is only a card if you play it. We could simply pass a law saying that we would restrict weapons purchases from a country which sells weapons to Pakistan, or we don't have a trade deal with such a nation, or something to that effect.

At the very least, we could have a rule which automatically blacklists countries which blacklist us. During Kargil, the US had blocked supplies to us and imposed sanctions. Had we made a rule then and there that we will not buy any American weapons for the next 20 years, they would have thought twice before banning us. Even Germany has imposed a ban on selling MP5 because of 'human rights violations against Naxals'. If we had imposed a counter ban on German weapons then the Eurofighter wouldn't even have participated in the MMRCA competition and Germans would have been under great pressure from the consortium of companies which mane the Eurofighter.

We try to placate everyone that is why everyone pisses on our head. Negotiate hard. Don't let these white monkeys hoodwink you.

If India doesn't buy F16, and partners with SAAB to co-manufacture Gripen and sell it as a competitor to the F16 market all over the world, that would show that India has arrived on the world stage. Anyone can spend money and buy things off the shelf. I think Modi is bending over backwards to please the US to prevent them from sabotaging his 2019 election campaign.

If we co-produce F16 and the US sells it to Pakistan, and Gulf Nations, then we are manufacturing weapons of our own doom.

Just make a 'Make in India' deal with Gripen and sell it to a large market of BRICS nations, Vietnam, Philippines as a high ticket item, and sell Tejas as an affordable alternative to the Gripen to those who cannot afford it. Regardless of which one they buy, it will be India which makes the money. With SAAB, we will get ToT, we will get manufacturing experience, our people will get jobs and our economy will benefit in a manner which prevents the US from having a share of the pie.

Plus, Sweden cannot have a big brother approach towards India like the US would, so they are a better partner. With the US, they will always throw their weight around and prevent us from using F16 in any full scale ware against Pakistan and China, because the US has deep interests in both. The US only wants Indian Navy to stifle Chinese naval presence. They wont allow India to use our Airforce or ground troops to hit Chinese economic interests because it is intertwined with the US.

There's literally no benefit in buying weapons from the US as it will come with restrictions.
 
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Indibomber

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correct , then from where the pakistan will bring billions of dollors ....infect its the opposite , trump will avoid pakistan that pakistan may ask for aid and concessions to by weapons...
They don't need to bring dollars, it's access to central Asia. The Geolocation is the second most selling factor that pak has, besides nukes. That would be enough for Americans to keep pak engaged. Although it's another matter that Pak is the strongest Muslim Nation (Army wise) and leads the Islamic block. US will keep Pak engaged.
 

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We have a lot of cards, but a card is only a card if you play it. We could simply pass a law saying that we would restrict weapons purchases from a country which sells weapons to Pakistan, or we don't have a trade deal with such a nation, or something to that effect.

At the very least, we could have a rule which automatically blacklists countries which blacklist us. During Kargil, the US had blocked supplies to us and imposed sanctions. Had we made a rule then and there that we will not buy any American weapons for the next 20 years, they would have thought twice before banning us. Even Germany has imposed a ban on selling MP5 because of 'human rights violations against Naxals'. If we had imposed a counter ban on German weapons then the Eurofighter wouldn't even have participated in the MMRCA competition and Germans would have been under great pressure from the consortium of companies which mane the Eurofighter.

We try to placate everyone that is why everyone pisses on our head. Negotiate hard. Don't let these white monkeys hoodwink you.

If India doesn't buy F16, and partners with SAAB to co-manufacture Gripen and sell it as a competitor to the F16 market all over the world, that would show that India has arrived on the world stage. Anyone can spend money and buy things off the shelf. I think Modi is bending over backwards to please the US to prevent them from sabotaging his 2019 election campaign.

If we co-produce F16 and the US sells it to Pakistan, and Gulf Nations, then we are manufacturing weapons of our own doom. Co-produce Gripen and sell it to a large market of BRICS nations, Vietnam, Philippines as a high ticket item, and sell Tejas as an affordable alternative to the Gripen to those who cannot afford it. Regardless of which one they buy, it will be India which makes the money.
Excellent post sir. Are the thoughts regarding Democrats and Republicans colluding on Indian immigration your own or is there a source (book, blog etc) for them? Please cite if there is, I'd like to read more.
 

Willy2

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If India doesn't buy F16, and partners with SAAB to co-manufacture Gripen and sell it as a competitor to the F16 market all over the world, that would show that India has arrived on the world stage. Anyone can spend money and buy things off the shelf.
Problem is with Gripen..it use same American engine as F-16 Block 70 /Tejas....so if US want they can block Gripen deal anytime...also it never said that TATA going to manufacture F-16 for IAF ,it still possible that IAF reject F-16 again and blackmail TATA to produce Tejas.....
 

Project Dharma

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Problem is with Gripen..it use same American engine as F-16 Block 70 /Tejas....so if US want they can block Gripen deal anytime...also it never said that TATA going to manufacture F-16 for IAF ,it still possible that IAF reject F-16 again and blackmail TATA to produce Tejas.....
I read that the engine is a Volvo, no?
 

mendosa

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Excellent post sir. Are the thoughts regarding Democrats and Republicans colluding on Indian immigration your own or is there a source (book, blog etc) for them? Please cite if there is, I'd like to read more.
Those are my own thoughts.

I've observed that whenever there are multilateral forums where geopolitics is discussed, it is the Americans who keep criticizing their previous policy, admitting to committing a folly and pretending to be sorry about it. One would feel that they are so humble, given their ability to admit their mistakes, however it is a gimmick to admit it as a mistake than to admit that it was deliberate policy. It's like a murderer admitting to petty crime and giving himself a clean chit.

Just notice how people like Christine Fair repeatedly keep chastising 'stupid American policy'. This is a master stroke because calling them stupid liberates them from the guilt of having done it deliberately and on the other hand she comes across as 'unbiased' to the Indian audience.

Observe how the deep state fooled the world. When anti-war sentiment was at an all time high, and the people were moving to the left, they propped up Obama and made him promise that he will withdraw troops from Afghanistan (and Gitmo), but they never actually allowed him to withdraw the troops for his 8 year term. At the end of his term, he 'withdrew' troops in such a manner that it was not an American withdrawal from the Afghan theater but it was effectively only a troop reshuffle because Trump immediately sent other troops to replenish it.

Now the people cannot say that Obama did not keep his promise. The Democrats will claim that we removed the troops but Trump sent them again. It had been their plan all along to hold on to Afghanistan in perpetuity. Now, if there is an adverse outcome in Afghanistan in the next 4 years, the deep state will prop up an anti-war Democratic puppet to blame Trump for sending troops and going against 'Obama policy' (lol) then once elected, he will continue the policy of the deep state. If there is a favorable outcome in Afghanistan, then the deep state will give a second term to Trump and Republicans will claim that it was the right move. In all this smoke and mirrors, the deep state maintains its inertia. It doesn't let democracy stifle its long term plans, on the contrary, it uses democracy to fool the people. They just keep propping up leaders according to public sentiment but the policy never changes. Whatever adverse effects arise out of the policies of the deep state, they use a new puppet to blame their old puppet and allow the public to let off some steam.

The Obamacare was also a similar gimmick. The global economy was in turmoil throughout Obama's tenure, so there was a chance that people will default on their health insurance payments, so they created a universal healthcare and made the whole nation pay for health insurance through taxes. This way, the insurance companies insulated themselves from the global downturn. Now the economy is growing and people have the capacity to pay more, so the insurance companies are getting Trump to remove Obamacare so that people will opt for costlier private insurance policies.

It's never Obama-policy or Trump-policy. The deep state always calls the shots. The seeming change in policy is just the deep state's reaction to the changing events on the ground. I heard news channels blabbering that Obama refused to sell Gurdian drones because Democrats were anti-India and Trump is pro-business so he is open to making a deal. That's plain horseshit. If the current geopolitical situation existed during Obama tenure, then they would have sold us the same weapons at that time. If China was as aggressive in the SCS as it is right now, then Negro baba would have sold us the drones in 2008 itself and they would have told their Indo-phobic support base that it was done to bolster American economy. You can cook up any story you want, the people are stupid and they have been kept stupid by keeping their attention away from geopolitics and focused on pop culture icons.
 
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Anikastha

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I am telling you that usually when US is about to start a campaign, there is some level of propaganda atleast 6 months in advance thru think tanks, opeds etc.

So far there are none on balochistan from America.

Don't hold ur breath on this...
So you say there is no Afghan campaign for American troops ?
China meddling in Afghan-pak ties.
And our beloved Donald duck is unpredictable. None knows what is running under his yellow hair

Sent from my ASUS_Z00LD using Tapatalk
 

mendosa

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Problem is with Gripen..it use same American engine as F-16 Block 70 /Tejas....so if US want they can block Gripen deal anytime...also it never said that TATA going to manufacture F-16 for IAF ,it still possible that IAF reject F-16 again and blackmail TATA to produce Tejas.....
Yes, Gripen has proprietary technology with US intellectual property rights on it. So it might be a problem, OR, if India puts its foot down and insists on buying Gripen then the US might still allow it because they will also make money from Gripen deal since the engine will fetch them royalties. They don't block stuff just for the sake of it. They will try to sell F16, and if they realize that India is not going to buy it, then they have no option but to get money selling engines for Gripen. This is still a better option to them because there is a third option for India to buy more Rafale and shunt out both F16 and Gripen, and a fourth option to go back to old friend Russia and work out some deal for SU27.

India is the one in the dominant bargaining position but it doesn't seem like we are playing any cards. Trump makes some random remark about Pakistan and we call it a policy shift.

The reports are saying that the US will only allow co-production and ToT if there is a guarantee of a 'large order', and large order means IAF. They cannot set up a factory in India only to sell to smaller clients like Qatar.

Why would IAF blackmail TATA for Tejas? Tejas does not pay commission to IAF, unlike western defense contractors. Just build a massive Tejas fleet. If the IAF refuses to support the decision, just ask them to resign and train a new generation of pilots who will. An equipment operator cannot dictate foreign policy on the entire nation. They will fly whatever equipment the country gives them to fly.
 

Ancient Indian

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I think Modi is bending over backwards to please the US to prevent them from sabotaging his 2019 election campaign.
How did you come to that conclusion?

Your long lvl-3 rants aside, US already doing whatever it can do to harm Modiji. No point in bending over backwards.
 

Willy2

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This is still a better option to them because there is a third option for India to buy more Rafale and shunt out both F16 and Gripen, and a fourth option to go back to old friend Russia and work out some deal for SU27.
I think our bureaucrat kill any 3rd option when they issue new tender by specifying "single engine" jet...there are't any more quality single engine jet n world...so it's F-16 specific tender....I think govt deliberately issue random tender to give HAL/ADA the time to complete Tejas MK2 ...like other tender ..this going to be discard in 2018/19//we then might start Gripen talk ..which fell in 1/2 years..and then govt shove Tejas MK2 down IAFs throat...
 

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Trump Administration to Tighten Screws on Pakistan? Hope the screws are long and tight!

But there's only this far that the yanks can go. If we're expecting them to brand Pak as a state sponsor of terror or clamped with sanctions, we're barking up the wrong tree! Nothing of the sort will happen. The Pakis are still important to US interests in the region. They may just ban a couple of terror groups which is of no use to man or beast. Those frikkin yahoos and their ISI masters will continue doing what they're doing to keep Kashmir on the boil.
 

take2spot

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India will always remain a stunted global player unless it can exercise decisive influence in its immediate neighborhood. Pakistan remains the principal obstacle to India's larger aspirations. It has been able to block and neutralize India in large part because of US military, political and economic support to Pakistan, which has been forthcoming in recognition of the important role that Pakistan occupies in US long-term strategic plans for the Gulf, Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia -- as well as South Asia. The consistent US support to Pakistan has been a major factor that has kept India and the US estranged for so many decades.

In the end, Indian protestations to the US have not managed to change US policies in this respect, and it doesn’t and hardly matters who is in the American’s office its trump or someone else nothing gonna change.

India’s influence towards Russia directs America to support Pakistan in both military and economy wise, you know what I mean strategic depth what Pakistan possess can’t never ever be changed in future who might be in charge or boss in office of America the situation would remain be the same.

That’s why these 22 drones which india may get are not that predator drones, as America clarified already “BALANCE IN THE REGION” means caring for Pakistan. :lol:
 

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If India doesn't buy F16, and partners with SAAB to co-manufacture Gripen and sell it as a competitor to the F16 market all over the world, that would show that India has arrived on the world stage. Anyone can spend money and buy things off the shelf. I think Modi is bending over backwards to please the US to prevent them from sabotaging his 2019 election campaign.

If we co-produce F16 and the US sells it to Pakistan, and Gulf Nations, then we are manufacturing weapons of our own doom.

Just make a 'Make in India' deal with Gripen and sell it to a large market of BRICS nations, Vietnam, Philippines as a high ticket item, and sell Tejas as an affordable alternative to the Gripen to those who cannot afford it. Regardless of which one they buy, it will be India which makes the money. With SAAB, we will get ToT, we will get manufacturing experience, our people will get jobs and our economy will benefit in a manner which prevents the US from having a share of the pie.

Plus, Sweden cannot have a big brother approach towards India like the US would, so they are a better partner. With the US, they will always throw their weight around and prevent us from using F16 in any full scale ware against Pakistan and China, because the US has deep interests in both. The US only wants Indian Navy to stifle Chinese naval presence. They wont allow India to use our Airforce or ground troops to hit Chinese economic interests because it is intertwined with the US.

There's literally no benefit in buying weapons from the US as it will come with restrictions.
Gripen is just like tejas........ All the important component of that Aircraft are manufactured by foreign companies......
And USA can subbotage its production anytime...... Even indirectly with the help of Italy or UK.....
This is why we are investing on rafale.... That is a good idea.
 

mendosa

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Gripen is just like tejas........ All the important component of that Aircraft are manufactured by foreign companies......
And USA can subbotage its production anytime...... Even indirectly with the help of Italy or UK.....
This is why we are investing on rafale.... That is a good idea.
Everything is fine. I just cannot imagine F16s with an Indian flag on it. Let's hope it is a planted news.

Whatever we buy now will remain with the IAF till 2050. Do want to be playing a second fiddle to Uncle Sam for that long? With European companies, the risk of being pushed around is reduced.

PS : The defense doctrine (49% FDI in defense) which Parrikar put in place states that even for foreign weapons where intellectual property has not been transferred to India, we will maintain sovereign control over the means of production such that if a war is declared, then GOI could take over even private factories and manufacture at will. As for complex parts where knowhow is not transferred to us, we could get them to send those parts first, as part of the contract. So if you want to make 100 fighters and your industrial manufacturing capacity as of now is just 8 planes per year then we can insist that the company should send the engines at a higher rate and must finish sending 100 engines within 5 years. We can manufacture the rest of the spare parts at our pace. At least there will be no risk of an embargo at the last moment.
 

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