We would get there even without modi let me tell you why .
India GDP in 2007 1 trillion $$
India GDP in 2017 2.5 trillion$$(imf estimate|actual for 2016 is 2.3 trillion. So quite fair)
Now calculate the compound growth rate it's well above 9% . How is that possible despite recession , despite upa scandols , despite upa 2 policy paralysis. Growth actually fizzled in 2012-13and 14 . Even worse than what we have this quarter after demonetization and gst dual hit.
But that's how compounding works.
Now from 2.5 trillion (2017) to 5 trillion (2025) 8 years we get compound annual growth rate of 9.05% .
But this is in $ based on exchange rate if rupee appreciates 2-3% than we'll need actual GDP growth to be 6-7 %.
Not to mention base year will be revised in between which will increase the figure further.( I know it seems like a trick but it's legit and everyone does it otherwise we'll have china and usa GDP much much less than what they have now too.)
So actually very sincerely I'm betting at total growth of some 12 % annual.
( 8% normal GDP growth + 2% rupee rising + 2% base year revision )
By that calculation I arrive at 6 trillion +- 200 billion.
I know it looks surprising now but in rear view things look normal.
Check chinese data for gdp
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China
Let's check year 2005, 2006 and 2007 by imf data
GDP was 2.2 ,2.7 and 3.5 trillion respectively. Now to add 500 billion between 2005 and 2006 chinese must have grown at 20% but we know that's impossible. For 2006-07 again 800 billion is added that means growth of 30%
In actuality at that time there GDP growth was upward 10% ( according to their own data ) but today in rear view it look much more thanks too yuan appreciation , base year revision and inflation.
Now I hope you get where I'm getting . Today we are adding 175billion to economy at 7 % growth annual . But in 2025 it would figure in Wikipedia will show that as 300 billion or higher
That is why 5 trillion is a conservative estimate . Morgan Stanley after all has very intelligent people on payroll.
And somebody should start collecting all my posts they are getting very very insightful of late:biggrin2::biggrin2: