The Taliban

[Daredevil]

Pakistan’s talibanization:inglorious retreat by pakistan army or calibrated collusion

PAKISTAN’S TALIBANIZATION: INGLORIOUS RETREAT BY PAKISTAN ARMY OR CALIBRATED COLLUSIVE COLLABORATION?

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

Pakistan today is in dire straits where its very existence as a nation state is at stake. Pakistan’s creeping Talibanization is no longer creeping but now galloping from its explosive western peripheries to the very heartland of Punjab. The United States and the West stand focused on this menacing development for months now.

Pakistan’s galloping Talibanization is no longer a strategic menace for the United States and NATO Forces in Afghanistan only, or far that matter to India. Pakistan’s Talibanization has emerged today as an untreatable or malignant cancer afflicting Pakistan’s survival.

The United States and the West, long sedated by General Musharraf during his eight years military rule with duplications assurances on Pakistan Army’s committal to liquidate the Al Qaeda and the Taliban, continued in a “state of denial” on Pakistan Army’s perfidy, constantly highlighted by this Author in his Papers on Pakistan on SAAG website and elsewhere.

Pakistan’s meltdown and prospects of a civil war was covered in a consolidated Paper by this Author (SAAG Paper No. 2570 dated 29 January 2008) based on cumulative analysis of the previous five years. This Paper was entitled “Pakistan at Sixty: Meltdown and Prospects of Civil War.”

Nurtured by years of adulating the Pakistan Army as the glue that holds Pakistan together and denied access to analytical reports highlighting the military failures of the Pakistan Army in its wars with India from 1948 to Kargil War in 1999, Pakistan’s own strategic community was in a state of denial about the unholy and diabolical operations of the Pakistan Army and the ISI (intelligence organization) under its control.

Pakistan’s abject surrender in Swat of the state sovereignty and ceding a large tract of territory on the very steps of the national capital Islamabad has finally hit home and painfully hard on Pakistan’s strategic community, its academia and its civil society, however limited.

Their pain and horror is that much more because the western-aligned President Zardari maneuvered to get the National Assembly “to share his shame” (as one Pakistani Columnist put it) to rubber stamp endorsement of his signature on the law authorization of Sharia in Swat.

It was left to Ayaz Amir, the noted Pakistani Columnist, a former Pakistan Army officer and now a parliamentarian to reflect this anguish in his column “Wages of Fear and Appeasement” (The News, April 17, 2009). His anguished words which will echo in Pakistan need to be reproduced in original.

“When a state and its military forces mentally reconcile themselves to defeat, one can only mourn the event. There is nothing left to say.”
“But we are trying to put a gloss on it and are putting forward all sorts of justifications – that there was no way out and that signing the Nizam – e – Adul regulation will bring lasting peace to Swat and its environs – but in out heart of hearts we know that, our courage having fled and no vision worth the name to guide us, we have acquiesced in a great act of surrender”.
“Munich is written all over it”.
“Before India our Eastern Command laid down its arms in 1971, not its spirit or soul. Before the Taliban in Swat we have ceded a part of out national soul.”
Pakistan Army’s abject surrender of Swat sequentially crowns a long list of surrenders to the Taliban of Pakistan’s state-control of frontier regions along the Afghan border beginning with the infamous Waziristan Accords. In Swat, the Pakistan Army has surrendered to the Taliban in the hinterland too.

The United States and the West having invested in billion of dollars on the Pakistan Army and still persist in doing so as evidenced by the pledges made on April 17, 2009 at Tokyo meeting of “Friends of Pakistan”, should now feel entitled to question as to why the Pakistan Army has been an abject and mute spectator to the Talibanization of Pakistan.

The people of Pakistan too should be asking the Pakistan Army the same questions having denied themselves for 60 years, democracy and development, to sustain Pakistan Army’s grandiose military adventurism against India.

Pakistan Army’s accountability on the galloping Talibanization of Pakistan needs to be asked for, as to why this over-glorified Army has failed the people of Pakistan and its strategic patrons in not stemming the tide of Talibanization, This apparent military inaction of the Pakistan Army in not effectively combating the Taliban menace raises two separate questions as follows:

Pakistan Army – Is it in an inglorious retreat against the Taliban advances?
Pakistan Army – Is it involved in a calibrated and collusive collaboration with the Taliban for strategic reasons?
This Paper attempts to analyze the above under the following heads:

NWFP and FATA Regions: Talibanization Virtually Complete
Pakistan Army in Inglorious Retreat or Calibrated Collusive Collaboration with Taliban for Strategic Reasons?
United States AF-PAK Strategy Unravels
Pakistan: The Prospects of a Civil War.
NWFP and FATA Regions: Talibanization Virtually Complete

Pakistan’s NWFP and FATA regions bordering Afghanistan and of critical strategic interest to the United States, stand fully Talibanized, courtesy the Pakistan Army for whatever reasons.

The prospects of this taking place and the hard decisions that would be so forced on the United States was analyzed by this Author as far back as January 2006 in his Paper (SAAG Paper No. 1688 dated 25.01.2006) entitled “Pakistan’s Explosive Western Frontiers and Their Impact: An Analysis”.

Tthe strategic impact on the United States can be read in the quoted Paper. However the observations made on Pakistan were that this explosiveness on its Western frontiers would be “suicidal” for Pakistan. Two major points from this Paper of contemporary pertinence need to be highlighted:

“Pakistan in all these decades could smugly indulge in military adventurism against its predominant neighbour India, chiefly because its western frontiers were not explosive.”
“Pakistan’s revived strategy of Taliban resurgence via the Waziristan route may result once again in an over-stretch of Pakistan Army, continued explosiveness in NWFP and generate in its wake many crucial contradictions in Pakistan, domestically.”
Nemesis can be said to have caught up with Pakistan and the Pakistan Army where today the border region of NWFP and FATA depict the following pattern of Taliban control:

Full Taliban Control: The entire border areas of NWFP and FATA are under “Full Taliban Control” with two exceptions of Kurram and Chitral which are still contested.
Contested Taliban Control: An intermediate stretch between the border regions and the settled areas, a narrow strip is both contested between the Taliban and Pakistan Army.
Taliban Influence Areas: This comprises the settled areas bordering the Pakistan heartland and in this the Taliban has penetrated and can be said to be establishing influence.
Government Control: Only two regions of Abottabad and Haripur
Therefore, for all practical purposes of state sovereignty Pakistan has ceded control of NWFP and FATA to the Taliban. This is a severe indictment on the Pakistan Army's professionalism as the guardian of Pakistan.

For details of the various regions in terms of these three broad categorization of Talibanization control of NWFP and FATA, please refer to Annexure attached.

Pakistan Army in Inglorious Retreat or Calibrated Collusive Collaboration with Taliban for Strategic Reasons?

Pakistan Army has been projecting to the United States that it has more than 100,000 troops deployed in the NWFP and FATA engaged in military operations against the Al Qaeda and Taliban. If that is a military truth then it is inconceivable as to how the professionally renowned Pakistan Army, has failed to prevent the Talibanization of NWFP and FATA. This has not only endangered US strategic interests in Afghanistan, raised questions about Pakistan Army as a reliable strategic interest in US strategic calculations, but by ceding Pakistani territory to Taliban control has endangered Pakistan’s survival as a nation state.

Pakistan’s noted strategic expert, Ahmed Rashid, especially on AF-PAK affairs and intensely consulted by the United States presently, has implied that the Pakistan Army has been in an inglorious retreat against the Taliban. Some important observations made by him lately are pertinent:

“Rather than order the Pakistan Army to retake Swat, the PPP Government have capitulated to Taliban demands to avoid more violence”.
“Deal may be interpreted as an unmistakable defeat in the country’s losing battle against Islamic extremism”.
“Pakistan Army is demoralized and overstretched and has refused United States offers to retrain its regular forces in counter-insurgency”.
“Pakistan Government and the Pakistan Army have lost the will and capability to oppose the Taliban”.
As a strategic analyst, this Author in his opinion finds it hard to believe that the Pakistan Army has lost the will and capability to fight the Taliban. On the contrary, this Author strongly feels that General Kayani and the Pakistan Army have indulged in a calibrated, and collusive collaboration to let the Taliban over-run Pakistan’s western frontier regions of NWFP and FATA for strategic reasons to pressurize the United States.

It would not be a conspiracy theory or a cynical strategic analysis to assert the following:

Continued explosiveness in NWFP and FATA contributes to retention of centrality of Pakistan Army in United States strategic formulations in this region with particular relevance to Afghanistan.
Such centrality of Pakistan Army especially in the AF-PAK context would force the United States, despite a civilian government on Islamabad, to deal directly with Pakistan Army GHQ in Rawalpindi.
Pakistan Army in such a calibrated strategy would place its bargaining chip on the table for the United States – the ISI under the Pakistan Army has a central role in helping US operations against the Taliban, USA should concede this role and stop criticizing the ISI.
As another quid-pro-quo make the United States to prevail over India for compromises on Kashmir and demilitarization of Kashmir and prevail over Afghanistan to recognize the Durand Line.
A detailed analysis of this calibrated strategy can be found in this Author’s Paper (SAAG Paper No. 3079 dated 03.02.2009) entitled Pakistan’s Talibanization is No Strategic Threat to India” and under the group heading “Pakistan’s Talibanization Facilitated by Pakistan Army Ceding Strategic Space by its Withdrawals from Frontier Regions”.

The Pakistan Army seems to be convinced in the belief that its well-crafted blueprint would ensure that it can retain calibrated control over Taliban escalation.

At best it can divert the Taliban drives towards India in Kashmir as part of its calibrated control. At worst, the Pakistan Army under intense American coercion could ultimately confront the Taliban in he plains areas of Pakistan with its traditional ruthlessness.

On both counts analysed above strategic concerns are generated for USA and the West and by extension to India.

United States AF-PAK Strategy Unravels

The United States major drawback in its strategic management of Pakistan has always been its single-point over-reliance on Pakistan Army Generals to deliver on its strategic objectives. Presently in Pakistan the United States has in place a decidedly pro-American Pakistani President and a perceived US inclined Pakistan Army Chief.

While the United States may persist in projecting that General Kayani is not a “political general” and would like to keep his nose out of politics, the record of the last year or so indicates otherwise.

President Zardari and PM Gilani had months back asserted that they have full faith in entrusting the sole responsibility for military operations in NWFP and FATA without political interference to the Pak Army Chief.

What have been the results of such a policy and the innumerable dialogues between General Kayani and US military hierarchy?

The state of affairs emerging in Pakistan hardly provide any sense of optimism that the United States AF-PAK strategy would succeed. On the contrary it may unravel even before it takes off.

One of the main props of the AF-PAK strategy is socio-economic development of the border regions of NWFP and FATA. Pray one may ask as to how the United States can achieve this when these regions are no longer under Pakistan Army control but under effective control of the Taliban.

The United States may be left with no choice but to reverse its priorities in AF-PAK Strategy from retrieving Pakistan from state-failure to reclaiming Afghanistan and assist nation-building as a bulwark against the impending chaos that is likely to engulf Pakistan.

Pakistan: The Prospects of a Civil War

The prospect of a civil war in Pakistan stands pointed out in my SAAG Papers quoted above. Such assertions then used to be met with amused reactions as the very thought seemed preposterous. But eminent Pakistanis too are seized with this worrisome prospect especially after the events of Swat.

Former Pakistan Ambassador Zafar Hilaly makes his concern in historical comparisons. In a recent commentary he has made the following observations.

“The Taliban are the 21st Century Mongols. Their mission too like that of 12th Century Mongols is to destroy the culture, faith and way of life to their opponents and to capture and kill if they resist. But unlike the Mongols hordes they (Taliban) do not simply terrorise the land like a swams of locusts, instead they stay.”
“The situation in Pakistan today is like a Greek tragedy: we all know the end but are powerless to prevent it.”
Rather ominous words coming from a thinking Pakistani. Another eminent Pakistani strategic and political analyst Ayesha Siddiqa states:

“Finally, we have a state that does not have any clue about where it wants to be in this century”.
“People have classifications for weak states such as banana republic, a term many despise”.
“Probably the right term for Pakistan is the “Jalebi Republic”, circles within circles and no clarity about the future”.
Many analysts in Pakistan have began to draw conclusions comparing the situation in Pakistan to the 1971 scenario when as a result of Pakistan Army transgressions, East Pakistan seceded to emerge as an independent entity of Bangladesh.

Close advisers to the Obama Administration are virtually coming to the same conclusion like David Kilcullen who has asserted that Pakistan could be facing an internal collapse within six months.

Concluding Observations

Pakistan and the Pakistan Army seem to have reconciled themselves to defeat at the hands of the Taliban and Swat portends that Pakistan Army’s abject indifference to uphold national integrity has ceded its national soul as observed by Ayaz Amir. He has always like may other thinking Pakistanis have been strong defenders of Pakistan’s honor. The seriousness of Pakistan’s crisis today echoes strongly in his words and many like him.

The United States with the most critical and massive strategic stakes in Pakistan’s stability needs to do a quick rethink and recast its AF-PAK strategy. The Pakistan Army cannot be counted as a reliable strategic asset in US strategic formulation for the region.

The United States has the strategic, political, military and financial leverage to bring around the Pakistan Army to stem the tide of Talibanization.

India has not contributed to the creation of the Taliban or the galloping Talibanization of Pakistan under way. The Pakistan Army is solely responsible for the grim state of affairs in Pakistan and the United States should call it to accountability, if for nothing else, to account for the billions of dollars invested in it to serve US strategic objectives.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:[email protected])

Annexure:

NWFP AND FATA: PATTERN OF TALIBAN CONTROL

Areas Under Full Taliban Control

Swat, Shangla, Buner, Malakand, Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Orakzai, Hangu, North Waziristan, South Waziristan, Bannu

Areas Under Contested Taliban Control

Chitral, Kurram, Mardan, Charsadda, Peshawar, Kohat, Karak

Areas Under Taliban Influence

Kohistan, Balagram, Manshera, Swabi, Nowshera, Dera Ismail Khan

Under Pakistan Government Control

Abottabad and Haripur

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers32/paper3157.html

 

[Sailor]

Big post again Daredevil and a massive amount of reading, but I'd like to say something here.

OK, as a person from the 'West,' I can understand why Indian nationals and people of Indian decent object to the military assistance given to Pakistan by America.
To Indian peoples this looks like the US has thrown their lot into an alliance with Pakistan and rejected India. You all feel hurt. It is understandable.
There are two main considerations here to consider and the first might make you feel a whole lot better.
The 'West' trusts India and it's Hindustani peoples and doesn't feel like we have to do anything about making your country less of a threat. There is no threat. In that aspect you are very similar to Israel. You have built a fort for defensive reason surrounded by enemies. Both the US and the UN at large know this.
Not so with Pakistan. America had to be able to get a foot in the door there to monitor the situation and the only way to do it is with military hardware support, as it is the only thing they understand.
Be proud that your nation is a nation of peace and is trusted.

The other thing to say is.........
Does everyone think that all has been done to actually foster a friendship with the United States since your self government? I mean all this stuff even today about choosing a new fighter plane and flirting with Russia all these years. You think America loves that?

The way things are in the region, I know I'd hate to have to formulate America's foreign policy there.

 

[Flint]

I'd put my money on Utter Confusion.

 

[EnlightenedMonk]

Hmmm... I wouldn't agree... everything is happening as per a plan in Pakistan... there may be chaos and confusion elsewhere but the ISI (the people who really matter and call the shots) IMO are not in any sort of Chaos...

Collusion is my feeling...

 

[Singh]

Talibanisation is not just a threat, it is the reality today. Face it.

The uproar is understandable but should it really come as a surprise that Sufi Mohammad and his band of barbarians are opposed to all that we hold dear? Of course not.

The position held by people who kill those who don’t subscribe to their point of view is diametrically opposed to that of all right-thinking persons. From day one, the stance of these militants who murder in the name of religion has been all too clear. These people are savages, yet we don’t put them behind bars. Why? If we don’t have the wherewithal to take them on, we should admit as much and stop making ludicrous claims that the enemy will be defeated in due course. Striking ‘deals’ with an enemy that is simply buying time won’t help either. Talibanisation is not just a threat, it is the reality today. Face it.

Sufi Mohammad’s organisation, which is sympathetic to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, is interested less in matters of faith and more so in power in Pakistan. It is now clear that the Taliban will not stop until they have their way. And this is their prescription for Pakistan: a nation, armed with nuclear weapons, jerked back to a mediaeval age. A country where men without beards are flogged, and women killed if they choose to express themselves. That is where we are headed. And one is wrong if one thinks this can’t happen in Pakistan. It can and it will unless we strike a decisive blow for the silent majority.

We must resist this onslaught. Should we be surprised when Sufi Mohammad says that that the high courts and the Supreme Court are un-Islamic? Certainly not. Are we to register shock when he says that democracy is un-Islamic? Of course not. He is merely articulating what he and his followers have thought from day one. Sufi Mohammad’s Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat Mohammadi, the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda are all committed to overthrowing the State of Pakistan. How many times do we have to say this? Their interest is not limited to enforcing — at gunpoint — Sharia law in Swat and the rest of Malakand. They want to take over all of Pakistan and subject each and every citizen to their brand of ‘justice’.

This government is ceding them territory and emboldening them to an extent where they will be able to dictate terms without fear. Fazlur Rehman of the JUI may say that Sufi Mohammad, a terrorist Mr Rehman supports despite being a member of parliament, speaks for himself. No, you are wrong Mr Rehman. He speaks for thousands of extremists who have no respect for the law. He is renouncing the constitution, which is perhaps tantamount to treason.We didn’t vote for this on Feb 18, 2008. We didn’t vote for barbarity in the garb of religiosity.

DAWN.COM | NWFP | Sufi?s world

 

[Daredevil]

Hmmm... I wouldn't agree... everything is happening as per a plan in Pakistan... there may be chaos and confusion elsewhere but the ISI (the people who really matter and call the shots) IMO are not in any sort of Chaos...

Collusion is my feeling...

Did you wanted to say 'Method in Madness' perhaps.

 

[Sailor]

Singh quote:'We must resist this onslaught'

Who is we, Singh? Do you mean the Western Christian nations or someone else?

 

[Singh]

Singh quote:'We must resist this onslaught'

Who is we, Singh? Do you mean the Western Christian nations or someone else?

Sailor,
I didn't write this article. I have given a source at the bottom follow it.
DAWN.COM | NWFP | Sufi?s world

PS: We here means Pakistanis :sharabi:

 

[Singh]

Taliban takeover could be the beginning of the end


NEW YORK: After the Taliban take over Buner and roll into Mardan, it will be the end of the game, a senior Pakistani law enforcement official in NWFP told The New York Times On Wednesday.

The report claimed that when the Taliban entered Buner, the Pakistan army did not put up a defence, apparently abiding by the agreement signed by the Zardari government in Swat.

A local politician, Jamsher Khan, told NYT that people were initially determined to resist the Taliban in Buner, but that they were discouraged by the deal the government struck with the Taliban in Swat.

‘We felt stronger as long we thought the government was with us,’ he said by telephone, ‘but when the government showed weakness, we too stopped offering resistance to the Taliban.’

The newspaper said the takeover of Buner was particularly significant because the people there have tried last year to stand up to the Taliban by establishing small private armies to fight the militants. Last year when the militants encroached into Buner, killing policemen, the local people fought back and forced the militants out.

Buner, home to about one million people, is a gateway to Mardan, the second largest in NWFP, after Peshawar.

Similarly, the Wall Street Journal reported that ‘militants have been moving into Buner since the Swat peace deal was signed with the government in February. But starting Tuesday night they seized control of the entire district, which has a population of more than one million people. Heavily armed militants streaming in from Swat, occupied government offices and set up their own check posts. Terrified residents fled their homes.’

Dozens of hooded fighters carrying rocket launchers and machine guns ransacked the offices of international aid and development agencies working in the district and took away their vehicles. Some employees of the agencies were also briefly taken hostage. The militants set up their headquarters in the town of Buner after driving out government officials, the WSJ report said.

American officials led by US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton sounded ominous alarm bells Wednesday. Mrs Clinton said she was concerned that Pakistan’s government was making too many concessions to the Taliban, emboldening the militants and allowing them to spread by giving in to their demands.

A senior American official said Mrs. Clinton’s remarks were prompted in part by news of the Taliban takeover in Buner.

The officials said that the further erosion of government authority in an area so close to the capital ought to stir concern not only in Pakistan but also among influential Pakistanis abroad.

The NYT reported that staff members of local nongovernmental organisations have been ordered to leave, and their offices have been looted. Pakistani television news channels showed Taliban fighters triumphantly carrying office equipment out of the offices of the organisations.

The Taliban advance had been building for weeks, with the assistance of sympathisers and even a local government official who was appointed on the recommendation of the Taliban, the report said.

The US media noted that the Taliban incursion comes after the government of President Asif Ali Zardari agreed to the imposition of religious laws in Swat, as part of a deal with the Taliban.

But with a beachhead in neighboring Swat, and a number of training camps for fresh recruits, the Taliban were able to carry out what amounted to an invasion of Buner, the media reported.

The Taliban expansion into Buner has begun to raise alarm among the senior ranks of the Pakistani Army, said a Western official who was familiar with the Pakistani military.

On Wednesday, one of the highest-ranking army officers traveled from Islamabad to Peshawar and met the officers of the 11th Corps, the army division based in Peshawar, to discuss the ‘overall situation in Buner’, the media reported.

One of the major concerns is that from the hills of Buner the Taliban have access to the flatlands of the district of Swabi, which lead directly to the four-lane motorway that runs from Islamabad to Peshawar, the capital of North-West Frontier Province.

The Pakistani military does not have a presence in Buner, Pakistani and Western officials told Times. The main government authority in Buner is the police, who have become demoralised by their low pay and lack of equipment in the face of the Taliban, Pakistani police officials say.

The Taliban have set up checkpoints in a number of villages in Buner, intimidating policemen and forcing them into their police stations, residents told reporters.

The militants were patrolling the bazaar in Daggar, residents said. Women, who used to move freely around the bazaars, were scarcely to be seen, they said. Those who did venture out were totally covered.

The militants were helped by the actions of the commissioner of Malakand, Javed Mohammad, who is also the senior official in Swat and who was appointed on the recommendation of the Taliban, the US media reported said.


DAWN.COM | World | Taliban takeover could be the beginning of the end

 

[Sailor]

Sailor,
I didn't write this article. I have given a source at the bottom follow it.
DAWN.COM | NWFP | Sufi?s world

PS: We here means Pakistanis :sharabi:

Singh, I wasn't having a crack at you but as there was no heading on your post I thought it might be from your local press. My point remains valid. Who will resist them?
If it was an American article, I still can't see who 'we' are when they say 'we' must resist them.
How, without invading Pakistan?

 

[Singh]

Taliban advance eastward, threaten Islamabad

The Taliban are pushing past the districts of Swat and Buner and are threatening Islamabad, a senior Islamist member of parliament said at a briefing.

The Taliban have consolidated control over the district of Buner and are moving on Mansehra and Haripur. These two regions, which are just on the outskirts of Islamabad and Rawalpindi, have been relatively spared from the violent Taliban insurgency that has plagued the Northwest.

The Taliban have entered the district of Mansehra and are threatening to take control of the Tarbela Dam in neighboring Haripur district, said Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the chief of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl, an Islamist political party, during a debate in parliament.

"If the Taliban continue to move at this pace, they will soon be knocking at the doors of Islamabad as the Margala Hills seem to be the only hurdle in their march towards the federal capital," Fazl said, according to a report in The News. "After occupying Buner, they have reached Kala Dhaka and may also be taking over the water reservoir of the Tarbela Dam."

Pakistan has reportedly rushed paramilitary forces into Buner today, but some units were attacked by the Taliban stationed there. Six platoons of Frontier Constabulary forces were sent into Buner to secure government buildings. One policeman was reported killed after the Taliban ambushed a convoy, The Associated Press reported. The military claimed the Taliban only control 25 percent of Buner, but Taliban fighters have been reported in all of the major regions in the district.

The Taliban advance on Mansehra and Haripur takes place at the same time they are moving on the districts of Swabi, Mardan, and Malakand. The takeover of these five districts would essentially cement the Taliban's control of the province.

The Taliban takeover of Haripur would put the Taliban on the doorstep of Islamabad and would also put two major nuclear facilities at risk.

Haripur borders the Margala Hills, a region in the Islamabad Capital Territory. Haripur also borders the Punjab districts of Attock and Rawalpindi.

Attock hosts two major nuclear facilities in Pakistan: the Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex and the Kamra (Minhas) Airbase. The Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex host three sites where nuclear weapons and components are stored and assembled and aircraft and missiles are modified for use in nuclear attacks. The nearby Kamra Airbase is thought to host attack aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

Rawalpindi is the "garrison" city for Pakistan's military. The city hosts the headquarters of the Army and Air Force, and several nuclear weapons research facilities are also located there.

During 2007, The Taliban and al Qaeda conducted several suicide attacks at Pakistani facilities that are thought to house nuclear weapons and research facilities. It is unclear if the suicide attacks were a demonstration of the groups' capacity to penetrate security at sensitive locations or merely attacks on targets of opportunity.

On Aug. 21, 2008, two Taliban suicide bombers killed 70 Pakistanis and wounded more than 1,000 in attacks outside the munitions factory in the Wah complex.

Suicide bombers targeted security forces on or near the Sargodha Air Force Base during the summer and fall of 2007. On Aug. 2, Pakistani police prevented a suicide bomber from attacking a parade at a police training facility. On Nov. 1, a suicide bomber drove his motorcycle into a bus carrying military and intelligence officers at the air base. Eight were killed and 27 wounded in the strike.

The Sargodha Air Force Base serves as the "headquarters of the Pakistan Air Force's Central Air Command and home base for nuclear-capable F-16 combat aircraft, and Hatf-III/Ghaznavi/M-11 ballistic missiles," NTI reported. "Analysts believe that the F-16s have been most likely modified for nuclear delivery. Some analysts believe that components or partially assembled air-deliverable nuclear devices might be stored at an ammunition depot at the Sargodha air base."

There have been 56 major attacks against the police, the Army, the Frontier Corps, and other Pakistani security and intelligence services since July 2007 when the Musharraf government launched the operation to clear out the radical Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, in the heart of the capital of Islamabad.

Taliban advance eastward, threaten Islamabad - The Long War Journal

 

[Singh]

Singh, I wasn't having a crack at you but as there was no heading on your post I thought it might be from your local press.

seen this heading above the first para @ Taliban takeover could be the beginning of the end ? its in bold and size 4 :blum3:

My point remains valid. Who will resist them?
If it was an American article, I still can't see who 'we' are when they say 'we' must resist them.
How, without invading Pakistan?

Here is some food for thought from the other side

Taliban to the rescue --> Heading

The foreign powers obsessed with extremism and jihadi violence in Pakistan have little insight into Pakistan’s real issues. They can throw a few billion dollars to prop up the state but money will only go so far: Pakistan will remain mired in lawlessness unless structural reforms are undertaken

Wali Dad, a peasant, died in front of the Karachi Press Club. He had been on a hunger strike, protesting the cruelty of a landlord Faqir Waryam, a member of Pir Pagara’s spiritual network.

Up north, the Taliban, besides enforcing shariat, forced the Swat landlords to flee, freeing landless peasants from long subjugation. Of course, the Taliban will receive revenue from the land but the peasants’ share will increase. Maybe the next Wali Dad will take his case to the nearby Taliban unit instead of dying in full view of helpless journalists at the Karachi Press Club.

Pakistani society has long reached the boiling point because of continuing oppressive feudalism at the political and economic levels and worsening equitable distribution of wealth in every other sector of the economy. To that has been added the new rich class of Pakistan, brazenly exhibitionist, which too has no regard for the poor.

The country has thus become a conglomerate of urban and rural fiefdoms where the powerful make their own laws and state institutions extract from the poor whatever they can. No one has yet put a stop to such degeneration; perhaps the Taliban will.

This may be a repetition of the Sikh insurgency of the eighteenth century in Punjab. With a small guerrilla force they destroyed the Mughal structures in Punjab in a short span of time. They made the local landlords and state-appointed vessels run, giving peasants the freedom to keep the produce after paying a small amount per household as ‘Rakhi’ (protection money). Waris Shah referred to this upheaval in a verse:

Ashraf kharab kmeen taza zimindar noon wdhi bhahar hoi

Jadoon dain te jat Sardar hoey, ghro ghri jan nwin sarkar hoi

(The nobility has been dishonoured, the working class has been refreshed and the tillers have become prosperous / When the Jats became country’s rulers and every corner [of Punjab] became self governing)

The creation of Pakistan itself is an example of how religious ideology is employed to redress the longstanding grievances of common Muslims. Notwithstanding the geopolitical games of that time, Pakistan’s creation was a mechanism by which the oppressed Muslims gained their share of the pie in their areas. Most of them were from the lowest castes before converting to Islam. However, the foreign ruling Muslim elites despised them and always put them down. The Muslim elites preferred to forge alliances with the Hindu elites rather than uplifting the downtrodden Muslim converts.

The status quo established by the Muslim and British rulers did not fulfil the dreams of the converted Muslims of Bengal and Punjab in particular. The contradiction between them and the ruling communities had to be resolved at some point. It took ten centuries and many massacres but the converted Muslims were able to get what they had desired for centuries. It is evident that religious ideology was the rallying point.

The developments in Swat have shown that in the absence of better alternatives, religious ideology can fill the gap and exploit class contradictions to advance its march. Presently, none of the mainstream political parties are prepared to tackle land reforms or other measures to change the huge inequity in Pakistani society. Moreover, common citizens do not have access to electricity, water, or any other social service. In such a desperate situation do we expect the people to take the politics of Constitution Avenue seriously? Does the presence or absence of the 17th Amendment make any difference to their lives? Why should they not join extremist religious organisations or become suicide bombers to get their family a few lakh rupees?

The ruling elites are completely oblivious of what the people really want. There is little hope left with the Pakistan People’s Party but even the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, apparently taking appropriate positions on constitutional matters, has no clue as to the basic contradictions that plague Pakistan.

He may talk about it but has Mian Nawaz Sharif ever emphasised land reforms or addressed the issue of inequities that mar the system? PMLN leaders may be better managers of the state but that does not cut it. This was the reason that PMLN was never able to mobilise the masses before the movement to restore the independent judiciary. Now that Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry is back in his seat as chief justice, the street power of PMLN will dissipate again.

The foreign powers obsessed with extremism and jihadi violence in Pakistan have little insight into Pakistan’s real issues. They can throw a few billion dollars to prop up the state but money will only go so far: Pakistan will remain mired in lawlessness unless structural reforms are undertaken.

Pakistan needs thorough land reforms and a more equitable system where the poor can also have dreams. If these measures are not taken the Taliban and the likes of them will always have a huge opening for their retrogressive agendas.

If Taliban are the only force that can eliminate the traditional oppressive elite, then people will swallow their strict edicts to gain economic freedom. Most likely, Pakistan’s ruling elite will not undertake system reforms even if the country is broken into fiefdoms!

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

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As I said before Taliban is an ideology, which seeks to correct many ills plaguing the AfPak society, you can't fight this ideology with weapons.

To fight it, rectify fundamental flaws which have fractured society, second prop up an antithetical ideology to Taliban. Unfortunately to do both Pakistan has to work alone if it wants to save itself.

 

[F-14]

some how iam not that comfy with the Fact the taliban is closer to the outer perameter of POK

 

[EnlightenedMonk]

some how iam not that comfy with the Fact the taliban is closer to the outer perameter of POK

Nobody is comfy...

 

[Daredevil]

A Talk with the "Taliban-Maker"

A Talk with the "Taliban-Maker", Former Pakistani ISI Chief Hamid Gul

26/04/2009
By Mohammed Al Shafey in London

[Asharq Al-Awsat] What are the sides participating in the fighting in the Pakistani tribal region? Would you give us an idea about those that bore arms against the Pakistani army?

[Gul] There are two categories of fighters in the tribal region. The first category consists of those that are fighting to avenge what took place in Pakistan following the 11 September 2001 attacks, especially those that are fighting to avenge what happened during the military operation that was carried out in the Red Mosque or the Lal Masjid. But these are not currently active after the new government took over power in Islamabad. This issue could be settled if we had an independent judicial authority in Pakistan that would investigate the killing that took place in the Red Mosque. These citizens continue to carry out acts of vengeance in some places. The second category consists of the criminal elements that fled from the Pakistani cities and found refuge in the tribal region. For example, one armed sectarian organization that was pursued in the Pakistani cities has fled and found refuge in the tribal region. The mujahidin know that these are criminal elements and do not provide them with any support. At the same time, however, they do not wish to open two fronts at the same time and thus they do not wish to fight them. Third, the US intelligence service has established more than 50 units in the Pakistani tribal region. These units are backed by the Indian intelligence services. These recruit the locals and foreign elements in the tribal region. Fourth, there are the mujahidin who wish to leave Pakistan and fight. But when the Pakistani army launched operations against them, they had no choice but to fight the Pakistani army. And this is what the Americans want. They want to see these mujahidin fighting against the Pakistani army and not crossing the borders to fight the Americans and the international forces.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] How did the Pakistani intelligence services help in establishing the Taliban movement? Is it paying the price at present?

[Gul] We helped the Taliban at first but we ended the training in 1989 and everything came to a stop. Most of the members of the Taliban movement were Afghan veterans that were trained during the Afghan war. We did not train anyone after 1989. So this training stopped about 20 years ago. Naturally, those that we trained have become older. So you give the wrong impression when you say that they are the same citizens that we trained.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] But is the support network that you established for the Afghan jihad active now in fighting against the Pakistani army?

[Gul] No, it is not the same network but the same spirit of jihad dominates the scene. There is no network. Only look at the scene in the tribal region. There is no network there. Each tribe is fighting in its region and no tribe crosses to the region of the other tribe. Each tribe has its command structure. At present, they have formed the "Tehrik-e Pakistan Taliban" (The Pakistani Taliban Movement) but it does not control all the Taliban groups in the tribal region.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] How and from where did the Pakistani Taliban Movement obtain their resources, such as arms and funds?

[Gul] The Americans are supplying them with arms and equipment. This is a unique characteristic of the tribal region. They are prepared to accept arms from any source. During the period of the Afghan jihad, the Russians gave them arms to fight against the Pakistani army. The citizens in these regions accepted money and arms from the Russians but they did not fight against the Pakistani army as the Russians wanted. Now there is a difference. They are accepting arms and money from the Americans and also fighting the Pakistani army. Why this difference? It is very simple: The Pakistani army is killing them and conducting major operations against them.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you think that the Pakistani army generals are turning a blind eye to Al-Qaeda and the Taliban that cross the border to fight the international forces in Afghanistan?

[Gul] They are indeed crossing the border and entering Afghanistan, but this is not confined only to the residents of the tribal region. Let me tell you that citizens from Punjab are going and fighting in Afghanistan.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you totally reject the idea that the Pakistani intelligence service has connections to the Taliban movement?

[Gul] No, let me tell you what kind of connections. I am a retired official but the al-Qaeda Afghan elements - Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, Karzai, and others - are against Pakistan but they are my friends. As far as I am concerned, they are old friends. So there are social relations. But it is not true at all to say that Pakistani intelligence officials are now supporting the Taliban movement and that this is their policy. This is incorrect.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] A report published in The New York Times has said that Jalaluddin Haqqani, a commander in the Taliban movement, is backed by the Pakistani intelligence services. Is this true?

[Gul] Jalalludin Haqqani is a personal friend of mine. When I sent my two sons to Afghanistan to wage jihad against the Soviet forces they fought alongside Jalalludin Haqqani's men. He is a very, very good man. However, this does not mean that I am in a position now to give him support. His family has been in Pakistan for 30 years. There are 2.5 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan and they will continue to come and go from and to Afghanistan.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] You mentioned having social relations with Afghan leaders and Taliban commanders. Did you ever meet Ayman al-Zawahiri or Mullah Omar or Osama Bin Laden?

[Gul] Let me make one point clear: During the Afghan jihad the Pakistani intelligence services trained Afghans only; we did not train non-Afghans. We received people for training through Afghan sides; no one came to us directly. We made sure that they were all Afghans. The Arabs and other nationalities had their private camps in Afghanistan. Osama Bin Laden was never in contact with us. The first time I met Osama Bin Laden was in Sudan after I retired. We used to hear from the Americans that Osama Bin Laden is a great warrior but we had no direct contact with him or with Abdullah Azzam (Osama Bin Laden's spiritual guide during the Afghan jihad; he is Palestinian). We did not train anyone except Afghans.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] In your opinion, what are the goals for which the Taliban movement is fighting in Afghanistan and its goals for fighting in Pakistan?

[Gul] There are two goals and they are clear and simple. The first goal is to fight for freedom and the second is to apply Shariaa. When they were in power in Afghanistan, they applied Shariaa there and made gains. It is also true that they made many mistakes; they were young and had no experience in management. But in general, the resulting government was good. They established a central authority in Afghanistan and women were given their inheritance rights for the first time in the history of Afghan society. There were excesses, such as forcing women in the Afghan towns to put on the Burqu and men to grow beards. But they established the rule of law and order in the country and provided protection to the Afghan citizens. So the Taliban movement wants to apply Shariaa as an alternative system in Afghanistan.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] On one hand you say that the Americans are supplying the Taliban with arms and on another hand you say that the Americans oppose the Taliban movement.

[Gul] Yes, they are doing all those things. They are executing their plans. They want the national Pakistani youths to fight against the Pakistani army and they have succeeded in this.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Are there any contacts between the Pakistani intelligence services and the Taliban movement at present?

[Gul] No, there may be social relations as I just told you. Many Afghans come to meet me and I never ask them whether they are Taliban or which side they follow.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] But don't you have official contacts with the Taliban?

[Gul] The Taliban surfaced as a movement three years ago after it became independent from the Pakistani intelligence services. It had a relationship with the Afghan mujahidin. The Taliban movement as an organization appeared later.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Is it possible that some neighboring countries, like Iran and Pakistan, are helping them?

[Gul] This is not true; it is mere propaganda to turn Arab public opinion against Iran. Iran is involved in Khoram [place name as transliterated], close to the Afghan border, where there are sectarian clashes. But let me tell you that the Americans are involved in the sectarian clashes in Pakistan.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you think that some Al-Qaeda leaders are now present in Iran?

[Gul] You know that after the Al-Qaeda dispersed in Afghanistan following the US attack there, many of them were arrested in Pakistan and some of them were killed. After that, they turned to Iran and the Iranian government did not arrest any of them. Some of them were put in prison but they were later released. This is very suspicious. The Americans did not say a word regarding this. Osama Bin Laden has three wives and about 18 children. Where did they all go? They all fled via Iran.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you think that the Taliban will regain power in Afghanistan once again? If so, what is the timeframe?

[Gul] I am not saying that the Taliban will regain Afghanistan. But I am certain that the freedom-loving Afghan citizens will soon be in power in Afghanistan.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] When will this happen? What is the timeframe that you expect for this to happen?

[Gul] Not more than two years. I think the United States will have to leave Afghanistan.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] How long do you think the Americans will remain in Afghanistan?

[Gul] If the Americans are wise, they will leave Afghanistan within one year. If they are not wise, Pakistan will witness a revolution as a result of the US presence in Afghanistan. They will be defeated in Afghanistan and they will have to leave Afghanistan in 2010 or 2011.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you think that Al-Qaeda has or has tried to procure weapons of mass destruction?

[Gul] This is sheer US propaganda because it wants to destroy Pakistan's nuclear power. The Pakistani nuclear program is the main goal of the Americans.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Who is in charge of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal? Is it under the command of the army or the president?

[Gul] In principle, these are elastic arrangements. The nuclear arsenal was under the command of the army in the days of former President General Zia-ul-Haq. After that, the nuclear command body was formed and a very detailed structure was put in place to control the nuclear weapons. In practice, the arsenal is under the control of the Pakistani president. The problem is that former President Musharraf changed the political system into a presidential system although we are a parliamentary system. Thus, the responsibility of protecting the Pakistani nuclear program is in the hands of President Asif Ali Zardari.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] When former President Pervez Musharraf was in power, we used to hear that his life was in danger because Al-Qaeda wants to kill him. Do you think that Al-Qaeda is threatening Zardari?

[Gul] This depends on Asif Ali Zardari's behavior. So far, he has not done anything to provoke such a threat except the military operation in the tribal Bajwar regions under pressure from the Americans. But so far, Zardari has not reached the point where his life may be a target for Al-Qaeda.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] How do you spend your time since you retired from your post?

[Gul] I lecture in some universities and other educational institutions. I keep in touch with the media, I tour Pakistan, and I address various gatherings of Pakistanis.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you feel threatened? Do you need or do you have private bodyguards to protect you?

[Gul] Some come to me and say I need some kind of protection. But I put my faith in God. Second, the area where I live is well protected but I put my faith in God.

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[Su-47]

This guy is a die hard taliban supporter and extremist to boot. And he was the head of the ISI, probably the most powerful organisation in Pak. Speaks volumes about the general attitude of the Pakistani top brass, doesn't it?

 

[Sailor]

Sorry but I find this hard to believe. America is arming the Taliban now so the PA they are also arming now will fight them? Give me a break!

[Asharq Al-Awsat] How and from where did the Pakistani Taliban Movement obtain their resources, such as arms and funds?

[Gul] The Americans are supplying them with arms and equipment. This is a unique characteristic of the tribal region. They are prepared to accept arms from any source. During the period of the Afghan jihad, the Russians gave them arms to fight against the Pakistani army. The citizens in these regions accepted money and arms from the Russians but they did not fight against the Pakistani army as the Russians wanted. Now there is a difference. They are accepting arms and money from the Americans and also fighting the Pakistani army. Why this difference? It is very simple: The Pakistani army is killing them and conducting major operations against them.

 

[Singh]

Hamid Gul is a lunatic, conspiracy theorists, has powerful connections and many Pakistanis lap up every word he says.

 

[rock45]

What a load of shit people wonder why that region is so screwed up. The only part I thought was interesting was that "After that, they turned to Iran and the Iranian government did not arrest any of them. Some of them were put in prison but they were later released. This is very suspicious." You think?
and:
"Osama Bin Laden has three wives and about 18 children. Where did they all go? They all fled via Iran. and "

I knew Iran is the behind supporter all along and the safest place for Bin Laden the whole time beside Pakistan where I'm sure he was being protected by the government.

The sad part of this trash article that there people believe this crap I had a huge fight with this guy from Sudan in this other forum, if that's where he really was. Iran has there hand in Sudan in many groups and can assume supports them as well. I'm sure it's only an accident that Pakistan's wonderful navy was training the Sudan navy. Bet you the Pakistan navy brings the Chinese made arms and more run under the nose of the world and drive right into the Sudan navy ports to do it. Sudan another shit hole but that's another thread.

Iran is dirty as the day is long.

 

[Singh]

Iran is anti-Taliban and anti-Baloch. Iran supports mostly Shia groups like those in Iraq, Pakistan, Palestine/Lebanon etc. and irrc one sunni group that is Hamas, mostly because Hamas is fighting the Israelis.
Iran has rendered tremendous help to Americans in Astan ?

PS: Iranians hate Arabs, support separatists movements in Bahrain, Afghans and Wahabis/Taliban/Orthodox Sunnis. Iranian-Arab rivalry is probably as fierce as Indo-Pak