The Syrian Crisis

[pmaitra]

Violence intensified in Syria, regional players up to new plans to tackle

DAMASCUS, July 27 (Xinhua) -- As violence has been ongoing in Syria with the government troops and armed rebels coming to a showdown, the regional players are seemingly having new calculations and drawing new landscape for the conflict.

Syrian state media said the government troops have dealt deadly blows to insurgent groups in three focal-points over the weekend as activists reported shelling and clashes in a number of areas nationwide, adding that as many as 45 people have been killed Friday so far.

The Syrian forces have inflicted heavy losses in central town of Qusair, southern Daraa and eastern Deir al-Zour provinces, according to state-run SANA news agency. Four "terrorists" were killed in Daraa.

Meanwhile, a pro-government Facebook page said that Syrian troops have surrounded northern Aleppo province in preparation for a cleansing campaign after the armed rebels moved their battle to the northern province, which is considered as the commercial capital of the unrest-hit country.

The street battles in Aleppo intensified for days after the opposition fighters have apparently lost a battle to subdue the capital.

A pro-government Syrian daily, al-Watan, has described Aleppo city as "the mother of the battles."

Experts believe that the western adamant stance has been the reason behind pushing the situation in Syria toward deeper conflict.

They said the West has been pushing the Syrian opposition and the armed elements on ground to refuse dialogue with the current regime.

Furthermore, reports of extremists from al-Qaida and like- minded groups exploiting the situation in Syria added new complication to the Syrian conflict.

On Thursday, a Muslim Imam in Aleppo was dragged out of a mosque in front of dozens of worshipers at gun point and later found killed. Media reports said Sheikh Abdullatif al-Shami was known of being a pro-government one.

As the situation seems confusing, local Sky News said Ikhlas al- Badawi, an MP from Aleppo has defected and fled to Turkey.

Turkey has emerged as a major player in the Syrian crisis as it shelters leadership of the rebels Free Syrian Army and opposition.

Citing officials from the Gulf, Reuters said Turkey has set up a secret base in Adana in Turkey in collaboration with Saudi Arabia and Qatar to supply military and communications aid to Syria's rebels.

On Wednesday, Turkey decided to close all border crossings with Syria, ostensibly avoiding the spread of clashes to its frontier.

Also, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is reinforcing security on the occupied Golan Heights in fears that the unrest in Syria may endanger the Israeli citizens living in that area, media reports said on Friday.

Observers, however, believe that the recent movements of Turkey and Israel came amid fears of the Syrian chemical arsenal.

Syrian foreign ministry has stressed that chemical or germ weapons are guarded by the Syrian army and won't be used in an internal conflict. The ministry, however, said those weapons would only be used in specific cases of outside aggression.

The ministry's statements raised the ire of the Western allies.

The New York Times has recently reported that U.S. administration officials have been in talks with officials in Turkey and Israel over how to manage a Syrian government collapse.

It said the "White House is now holding daily high-level meetings to discuss a broad range of contingency plans -- including safeguarding Syria's vast chemical weapons arsenal."

The Syrian administration has for long accused the West and their regional allies of being behind the escalating violence in the Middle East.

Source: Violence intensified in Syria, regional players up to new plans to tackle - Xinhua | English.news.cn

 

[Scalieback]

Violence intensified in Syria, regional players up to new plans to tackle

Source: Violence intensified in Syria, regional players up to new plans to tackle - Xinhua | English.news.cn

What is it with this phrase?

A pro-government Syrian daily, al-Watan, has described Aleppo city as "the mother of the battles."

Can't we have 'the father of all battles' for once?

 

[pmaitra]

That's just boring now. Why on earth would we want to create more states that dislike us. Give a proper response, just this once.....

I am bored too, of your hackneyed questions, especially after the Q.E.D. episode. So, I decided to return the favour.

Canterbury Tales? No thanks

Never mind Canterbury, how about Cadbury - I mean, eat a Cadbury bar. I remember you telling me the day you ...., you'd eat a hat. :tinfoil3:

The Telepgraph says western int agencies started the arab spring? Source?

Sources already posted in this very thread, by your's truly. Do read them.

Nah, I've upset Frenchie now He'll go off into one in a mo ...... At least he's not going by the national trait

He has his soft corner for - well, just read the thread.

 

[Scalieback]

I am bored too, of your hackneyed questions, especially after the Q.E.D. episode. So, I decided to return the favour.

Fair one

Never mind Canterbury, how about Cadbury - I mean, eat a Cadbury bar. I remember you telling me the day you ...., you'd eat a hat. :tinfoil3:

I'd eat my MTP hat if you beat me at something was it? Sorry, I don't recall. Reminder?

Sources already posted in this very thread, by your's truly. Do read them.

Give a link? I'm not reading 44 pages for that.

He has his soft corner for - well, just read the thread.

Poles apart. Does that mean even though I disagree with you I'm on your side?:shocked:

Edited to add: Google gives me very little on this: "daily telegraph western intelligence agencies responsible for arab spring"

 

[Armand2REP]

Oh dear, Frenchie's at it again

I said I saw it. It doesn't mean they are still showing it. It doesn't mean that they were the original source. You yourself said mobile feeds can go via Turkey.

Or maybe you saw something else. Burning tanks are a dime a dozen in Syria.

 

[pmaitra]

Fair one

Thanks!

I'd eat my MTP hat if you beat me at something was it? Sorry, I don't recall. Reminder?

Well, never mind. It's lost its sheen.

Give a link? I'm not reading 44 pages for that.

There are many links and sources in this thread. Here is one example:

Houla: Rebels commit massacre, blame on Assad - German Newspaper

Original excerpt in German:

Rebellen erhalten 300-Millionen-Dollar-Fonds

Eine angegriffene Straßenkontrolle rief Einheiten der syrischen Armee zu Hilfe, die 1500 Meter entfernt eine Kaserne unterhält und umgehend Verstärkung schickte. Bei den Kämpfen um Hula, die 90 Minuten gedauert haben sollen, wurden Dutzende Soldaten und Rebellen getötet. Während der Kämpfe waren die drei Dörfer von Hula von der Außenwelt abgeriegelt.

Nach Angaben der Augenzeugen habe sich das Massaker in dieser Zeit ereignet. Getötet worden seien nahezu ausschließlich Familien der alawitischen und schiitischen Minderheit Hulas, dessen Bevölkerung zu mehr als neunzig Prozent Sunniten sind. So wurden mehrere Dutzend Mitglieder einer Familie abgeschlachtet, die in den vergangenen Jahren vom sunnitischen zum schiitischen Islam übergetreten sei. Getötet wurden ferner Mitglieder der alawitischen Familie Shomaliya und die Familie eines sunnitischen Parlamentsabgeordneten, weil dieser als Kollaborateur galt. Unmittelbar nach dem Massaker hätten die Täter ihre Opfer gefilmt, sie als sunnitische Opfer ausgegeben und die Videos über Internet verbreitet. Vertreter der syrischen Regierung bestätigten zwar diese Version, verwiesen aber darauf, dass sich die Regierung verpflichtet habe, öffentlich nicht von Alawiten und Sunniten zu sprechen. Staatspräsident Baschar al Assad gehört den Alawiten an, die Opposition wird überwiegend von der sunnitischen Bevölkerungsmehrheit getragen.

Unterdessen haben im Ausland lebende syrische Geschäftsleute in der qatarischen Hauptstadt Doha zur Finanzierung der syrischen Opposition und Rebellen einen Fonds mit 300 Millionen Dollar eingerichtet. Mustafa Sabbagh, der Präsident des syrischen Businessforums im Exil, stellte den Fonds vor. Wael Merza, der Generalsekretär des oppositionellen Syrischen Nationalrats, äußerte, die Hälfte des Betrags sei bereits ausgegeben und teilweise an die Freie Syrische Armee geflossen.

Der russische Außenminister Sergej Lawrow schlug derweil die Einberufung einer internationalen Konferenz zu Syrien vor, an der alle Länder teilnehmen sollten, die Einfluss auf die Akteure in Syrien hätten. Der Kreis müsse über die Länder hinausgehen, die sich in den "žFreunden Syriens" zusammengeschlossen hätten, sagte Lawrow. Denn diese Gruppe unterstütze lediglich die "žradikalen Forderungen" des Syrischen Nationalrats. Konkret nannte Lawrow neben den Mitgliedern des UN-Sicherheitsrats, der EU und der Arabischen Liga auch die Türkei und Iran. Ziel solle sein, den Annan-Plan "žkorrekt und ohne Zweideutigkeiten" umzusetzen.
[HR][/HR]
Translation of the antepenultimate paragraph of the article:

According to the eyewitnesses to the massacre had occurred during this period. Had been killed almost exclusively families and the Alawite minority Shiite Hulas, which is more than ninety percent are Sunni. Thus, several dozen members of a family were slaughtered, which had in recent years by Sunni converted to Shiite Islam. Killed were also members of the Alawite family Shomaliya and the family of a Sunni member of parliament, because this was considered a collaborator. Immediately after the massacre, the perpetrators would have filmed their victims, they issued a Sunni victims and spread the videos via the Internet. Although representatives of the Syrian government confirmed this version, but pointed out that the government had agreed not to speak publicly of Alawites and Sunnis. President Bashar al Assad is a member of the Alawites, the opposition is supported mainly by the Sunni majority.

Read full article: Neue Erkenntnisse zu Getöteten von Hula: Abermals Massaker in Syrien - Politik - FAZ

Poles apart. Does that mean even though I disagree with you I'm on your side?:shocked:

Your position on this Syria issue has been rather an der Grenze type. Let's see you take a stand. op:

 

[Scalieback]

Or maybe you saw something else. Burning tanks are a dime a dozen in Syria.

It looked like the clip and it was on shortly after the one driving down the street with flames on the front decking and turret. Then they talked about something going on in Africa. It's on in the background and yesterday the flaming tank caught my eye.

 

[pmaitra]

Edited to add: Google gives me very little on this: "daily telegraph western intelligence agencies responsible for arab spring"

ScaleyBack, if you are not able to see this in the UK, then your government is really curbing your rights.

Just to let you know, Telegraph UK has taken down this article, because it exposes how the West is complicit in this rebellion.

Feast your eyes:

Download high-resolution PNG image:
http://img846.imageshack.us/img846/409/syriarebelswesthelpgoog.png

Browser search query:

http://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ie=UTF-8#q=syria&hl=en&safe=off&tbm=nws&prmd=imvnsul&ei=XjQTUOSGGoii8ATwpIB4&start=10&sa=N&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=8d46b3cb76e68f05&biw=1680&bih=925

 

[Scalieback]

Well, never mind. It's lost its sheen.

My hat? Never! Your tin foil one? I'm lost now.....

There are many links and sources in this thread. Here is one example:

I thought I said I'm aware the 'rebels' were caught out doing a Sarajevo/dead Palestinian?

I need a source that says the wests Int agencies started the Arab Spring as everywhere I read, they seem to be caught on the back foot. Which frankly is a bit surprising bearing in mind the rise of AQ, mass unemployment etc etc

Your position on this Syria issue has been rather an der Grenze type. Let's see you take a stand. op:

How can I make a stand? On the one hand you have the Assad regime that funds terror groups and gives them succour. On the other hand, we could end up with an AQ regime in a country that already has WMD's! Hello rock, this is a hard place?

 

[pmaitra]

My hat? Never! Your tin foil one? I'm lost now.....

Never mind.

I thought I said I'm aware the 'rebels' were caught out doing a Sarajevo/dead Palestinian?

I need a source that says the wests Int agencies started the Arab Spring as everywhere I read, they seem to be caught on the back foot. Which frankly is a bit surprising bearing in mind the rise of AQ, mass unemployment etc etc

See post #661.

How can I make a stand? On the one hand you have the Assad regime that funds terror groups and gives them succour. On the other hand, we could end up with an AQ regime in a country that already has WMD's! Hello rock, this is a hard place?

Ok, you have a point. Fair enough.

 

[Scalieback]

ScaleyBack, if you are not able to see this in the UK, then your government is really curbing your rights.

I can see it and I get similar results, albeit this is top: US refuses to help Syrian rebels until after election - Telegraph

I should say it comes up with an error on the article.

Just to let you know, Telegraph UK has taken down this article, because it exposes how the West is complicit in this rebellion.

Does it? That's what they've said? It's a bit like what happened in Libya eg get rid of Daffy Duck,Oooops. We didn't mean that to happen

However, it's a long shot, in fact a round the world shot to say western int agencies started the arab spring. That'd be awesome if they could do something like that though Now instead of AQ why don't we get an arab spring to bring a benevolent leader such as Jordan has? Hmmmm, I know. Because that isn't what happens.

Everything points towards the arab spring being something that was bubbling below the surface and frankly caught everyone by surprise. Initially it was thought they should support the rebels, but in many cases they are worse than the regimes they overthrow it would seem.

 

[Scalieback]

See post #661.

Seen and responded. I just don't see the arab spring being started by the west and it has nothing to gain from it, in fact it has a lot to lose. Imagine if S Arabia with 25% of the worlds oil reserves went AQ?

 

[pmaitra]

Iran vows 'unchangeable' support for Syria with 'experience and capabilities'

Iran has pledged more support for Syria amid mounting "foreign pressure" and promised not to leave its ally "alone in difficult times."

"Given that powers have united to damage the Syrian nation, Iran's stance toward Syria is not changeable – it will always stand by its Syrian brothers," Iran's first vice president, Mohammad Reza Rahimi, said on Thursday while meeting Syria's deputy prime minister, Omar Ibrahim Ghalawanji, in Tehran.

The secretary of Iran's National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, called relations between Iran and Syria "strategic", saying that Tehran is ready to support Damascus "more than before in the face of foreign pressure."

Source: Iran vows 'unchangeable' support for Syria with 'experience and capabilities' — RT

 

[Yusuf]

Alawistan: Assad could move to the coastal enclave

How long will President Bashar al-Assad remain in Damascus? His regime appears to be reeling: A bombing last week claimed the lives of his brother-in-law and three other senior figures of his regime, military defections continue, and rebel forces have arrived in the country's largest cities. The prevalent view in Washington and many other foreign capitals is that the question is not if Assad will lose the capital, but when.

Assad has no intention of abandoning Damascus without a fight. Since last week's bombing, the Syrian Army's Fourth Division -- led by Assad's brother Maher -- has launched an intense campaign to retake control of the capital's neighborhoods from the rebels. To secure Damascus, the regime has redeployed troops from the Golan and eastern Syria. Control of the capital is critical to Assad for maintaining the pretense that he is not merely an Alawite warlord, but the embodiment of the state.

The Syrian despot, however, is fighting a losing battle. As heavy fighting rages on in the cities of Damascus and Aleppo, the regime is losing control over the Syrian interior and the Kurdish northeast. The predominantly Sunni areas of Syria are falling from Assad's grasp, and there is no realistic way for him to reassert his authority there.

But Assad has one card left to play: The Syrian regime has been setting the stage for a retreat to Syria's coastal mountains, the traditional homeland of the Assads' Alawite sect, for months now. It is now clear that this is where the Syrian conflict is headed. Sooner or later, Assad will abandon Damascus.

The Syrian regime's recent decline in fortunes has seemingly accelerated this process. With the sectarian fault line clearly drawn, reports are emerging of internal population migration as Alawites begin moving back to the ancestral mountains -- echoing the dynamics seen during the Lebanese civil war. Shortly after the assassination of the top Syrian security officials, opposition activists and Western diplomats reported that Assad had relocated to the coastal city of Latakia. This claim has since been contested, but Assad's whereabouts remain uncertain.

Despite the fact that the Syrian regime is a family enterprise, Assad has sought to present himself throughout the conflict as the sole legitimate interlocutor with the outside world. Regrettably, the international community has played along with this conceit. All diplomatic initiatives to solve the Syrian crisis have stipulated dialogue with Assad and refrained from calling on him to hand over power.

However, it has long been apparent that Assad's bid to control the entirety of Syrian territory was hitting against demographic and geographic realities. Contrary to all early assertions regarding his military, Assad's forces are little more than a sectarian militia. This limited manpower has, from the beginning, meant that Assad would not be able to re-impose his authority on the predominantly Sunni interior and periphery.

This sectarian geography has determined the regime's behavior. As he dug in for a long war, Assad has had to consolidate the Alawites behind him and fortify his position in the Alawite coastal mountains overlooking the Mediterranean, in the region roughly between Jisr al-Shoughour in the north, near the Turkish border, and Tal Kalakh in the south, near Lebanon.


Assad has moved to secure all natural access points leading to this Alawite redoubt. In a move somewhat reminiscent of the Lebanese precedent, he also began to clear hostile Sunni pockets within the enclave and to create a buffer zone in the plain that separates the coastal mountains from the interior. This was the-calculus-behind the string of mass killings in villages like al-Houla, Taldou, al-Haffeh, and Tremseh -- all Sunni population centers either inside or on the eastern frontier of the Alawite enclave in the central plain.


Assad has moved to secure all natural access points leading to this Alawite redoubt. In a move somewhat reminiscent of the Lebanese precedent, he also began to clear hostile Sunni pockets within the enclave and to create a buffer zone in the plain that separates the coastal mountains from the interior. This was the-calculus-behind the string of mass killings in villages like al-Houla, Taldou, al-Haffeh, and Tremseh -- all Sunni population centers either inside or on the eastern frontier of the Alawite enclave in the central plain.

The common denominator to all these places is their relevance to Syria's strategic and sectarian geography. The areas near Homs and al-Haffeh, for instance, are historical access routes into the coastal mountains. In addition, villages like Taldou and Tremseh mark the eastern faultline where outlying Alawite villages are sprinkled uncomfortably near Sunni ones. They also lie strategically on the north-south axis linking Damascus to Aleppo, and the rebellious governorates of Homs and Hama to Idlib.

Damascus, however, lies well outside this prospective enclave. In the capital, the regime does not possess a demographic reservoir of loyal Alawite communities with which to balance the power relationship with its rivals. The Syrian regime has responded to this problem by ringing Damascus with military bases stocked with loyal Alawite troops to control the main communication routes out of the city. As a result, French political geographer Fabrice Balanche has written, the capital has become an "encircled city." Moreover, as recent news reports have noted, the influx of mostly Sunni refugees into Damascus from other rebellious districts has further complicated the demographic equation in the capital.

It is therefore not only conceivable, but also rather likely, that these geographic and demographic factors will at some point lead Assad to abandon Damascus and fortify himself in his Alawite stronghold. As occurred in Lebanon, this could lead to a prolonged static war, where the support of external patrons -- namely Iran and Russia -- becomes increasingly critical to Assad.

Some will argue that an Alawite enclave is unviable in the long-term, but Assad has an insurance policy to protect his retreat. As the Assad regime just reminded the world, it possesses a large stockpile of chemical weapons. While most observers are worried about Assad passing these weapons along to third-party actors like Hezbollah, he is more likely to hold on tightly to them. These weapons are his last remaining and most formidable deterrent against his Sunni foes, and precious leverage to guarantee the quiescence of the outside world.

With this insurance policy, Assad could hang on as a warlord presiding over an Iranian and Russian protectorate on the Mediterranean. The past several weeks have dealt Assad a serious blow, but this is not yet the end of the Syrian conflict. It is rather the beginning of a new phase, the endgame of which is not in Damascus, but further west.

Alawistan - By Tony Badran | Foreign Policy

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Alawistan: Assad could move to the coastal enclave

Assad's fall might not happen. One should not read too much into Hillary Clinton's remarks. The rebels got quite a beating over the last few days, and have been running short of ammunition of rifles.

 

[Ray]

Re: Alawistan: Assad could move to the coastal enclave

If indeed Assad is making his Redoubt in the Alawite stronghold, then we can expect another Iraq like situation.

But will Russia and China want to lose a staunch ally?

 

[Scalieback]

Iran vows 'unchangeable' support for Syria with 'experience and capabilities'

"Iran has pledged more support for Syria amid mounting "foreign pressure" and promised not to leave its ally "alone in difficult times."

Source: Iran vows 'unchangeable' support for Syria with 'experience and capabilities' — RT

Oh dear, Assad's doomed then. Isn't that like ministers getting the full and unequivocal support of the PM and then getting the sack days later?

 

[Kunal Biswas]

Not moving so much now...

Yeah tanks are blown up too..

Its war..

 

[Zebra]

If Assad falls, who wins?

Michael Higgins Jul 28, 2012 – 3:17 AM ET | Last Updated: Jul 28, 2012 3:22 AM ET

UN and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan has warned, "Syria is not Libya — it will not implode, it will explode beyond its borders." With a bomb recently killing four of President Bashar al-Assad's inner circle and heavy fighting in Damascus and Aleppo, many experts believe a turning point has been reached in Syria. While it might not be the end-game yet for Mr. Assad, some analysts are considering the implications should he fall — the potential for violence, the shift in the balance of power in the region and the global repercussions. Who would be the likely major winners and losers if Mr. Assad is ousted, asks Michael Higgins.


Winners


United States

If Mr. Assad falls without any intervention, the U.S. will get a lot of credit. "Even if it had no effect, it will appear that it did," wrote Stratfor analyst George Friedman. This "will enhance the ability of the United States to influence events in other countries without actually having to intervene," he adds. Further, if Turkey was to play a bigger role in Iraq (because of its pipeline interests) it would need to move into a "position of balancing Iran." "This relieves the United States of the burden of containing Iran," he said. Mr. Neriah also noted, "It is in the national interest of the U.S. and the West to cultivate relations with the emerging Syria in order to provide a safe rear to Iraq and, most importantly, to contain Iran."


Qatar

"The Qataris have emerged as the quiet kingmakers," wrote Shashank Joshi, of Harvard University, and Jason Pack, from Cambridge University, this year. In Libya, Qatar played a major military and intelligence role, and on Syria it has been aggressive in calling for Mr. Assad to step down, prominent in a diplomatic role and a leading backer of the rebels. The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, pictured, is "looking like a highly adept statesman," they wrote. If Mr. Assad was to be dethroned, the ever-expanding influence of Qatar would only increase.


Hamas

The Sunni group has failed to back the Assad regime, causing Iran to withdraw funding. Hamas has also pulled its external leaders from Damascus. However, Jonathan Schanzer reports for Foreign Policy magazine that Hamas has since benefited from Qatari and Turkey funding. The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has also "energized" Hamas, he says. The fall of Mr. Assad and the rise of a Sunni regime would be advantageous to Hamas. But Mr. Schanzer warns, "True, Hamas's new donors could moderate its politics. This is certainly the line that Turkey and Qatar will take. But more likely, the increased cash flow to Hamas will herald a new wave of rejectionism and — given Hamas' track record — possibly a new wave of violence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict."


Turkey

Turkey has announced plans for pipelines in Iraq to oil fields in the south and in the north. "Turkey does not want to militarily involve itself in Iraq, but it does want political influence to guarantee its interests," wrote Mr. Friedman. If Iranian influence in Iraq was on the decline — after the ousting of Mr. Assad — it would provide opportunities for Turkey. "Thus, just as the Iranians are in retreat, the Turks have an interest in, if not supplanting them, certainly supplementing them," wrote Mr. Friedman. However, Turkey would have to deal with the rise of Syrian Kurds and the potential for them to align with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorist group. Michael Young, a Mideast expert, told the Council of Foreign Relations, "The Turks will play a very key role in what type of post-Assad state exists in Syria"¦ But certainly Turkey has a significant interest in the post-Assad Syria, if only economically, given that Syria will have to trade with its big northern neighbour."

If Assad falls, who wins? | World | News | National Post

cont.....

 

[Zebra]

Re: If Assad falls, who wins?

Losers

China and Russia

"But perhaps the most important losers will be Russia and China," Mr. Friedman said in his analysis. Both countries have backed the regime and opposed sanctions and intervention by the UN and the Arab League. "The Russian and Chinese hope has been that the United States would continue to treat them as secondary issues while it focused on the Middle East. The decline of Mr. Assad and the resulting dynamic in the region increases the possibility that the United States can disengage from the region. This is not something the Russians or Chinese want, but in the end, they did not have the power to create the outcome in Syria that they had wanted."


Iran

Iran has invested troops, weapons and resources in the Assad regime and needs it to stay in power to maintain a sphere of influence stretching from western Afghanistan to Lebanon. George Friedman, an analyst with Stratfor, a U.S. global intelligence company, wrote this week that the fall of Mr. Assad would be a strategic blow to the Iranians in two ways. "First, the wide-reaching sphere of influence they were creating clearly won't happen now. Second, Iran will rapidly move from being an ascendant power to a power on the defensive." If Iran was seen to be a waning power this could have an impact on the psychology of Iraqi politicians who might be emboldened to defy Iranian influence in the country, wrote Mr. Friedman.


Hezbollah

Lebanon's powerful Shiite group has publicly tied its future to Mr. Assad. The fall of Mr. Assad would deprive the group of its strategic partner and main supply line for its arsenal. "Hezbollah is at a point of enormous strategic uncertainty. [Syria's uprising] is not an existential threat, they are too well armed. But now they face a threat from two sides," a Western diplomat in Lebanon told Reuters, referring to Hezbollah's foe Israel and a potentially hostile post-Assad Syria. "What is happening now is fateful for them," Lebanese analyst Jihad al-Zein also told Reuters. "They do not have a choice — they are with the regime until the last minute. This is a strategic alliance between Iran and Syria and they are part of it."


Israel

"A major loser in this is Israel," Mr. Friedman wrote for Stratfor. Syria and Israel fought two wars, in 1967 and 1973, but Israel appears to have maintained an understanding with Mr. Assad that allowed him to dominate Lebanon in return for restraining Hezbollah. "But the possibility of either an Islamist regime in Damascus or, more likely, Lebanese-style instability cannot please the Israelis," wrote Mr. Friedman. Some Israeli officials fear that a power vacuum in Damascus could turn the Golan Heights into a haven for terrorist groups. Israel also fears that Hezbollah could try to raid Syrian weapons arsenals under the cover of chaos ensuing from a possible regime collapse. "A change of regime, and certainly to a militant one, would not be to Israel's advantage, especially if the new Syrian regime would try to 'warm up' the border with Israel in order to divert public opinion from domestic problems," Jacques Neriah, formerly foreign policy advisor to former prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, said in a report for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

National Post, with files from news services

If Assad falls, who wins? | World | News | National Post