The Syrian Crisis

[bose]

Is Assad so stupid as to use chemical weapons and end up painting a target on his arse... something is just not right

Syria is caught up in between the Saudis supported rebels and Iran supported Assad...Its repurcations are also felt in Lebanon, Palestine and its surroundings... It has the potential to take the region down to a mess, a human tragedy indeed... I suspect something fishy here, if rebels are using it then from where they are getting the knowledge and material support ...

Off Topic: I see you after a long time in this forum.... Hope you are doing well with your studies and researches...

 

[asianobserve]

look, they haven't come yet and won't come blindly too . Syria is no like Libya that you may bomb from sky and the rebels may proceed from the ground. even S-300 is quite capable to handle a 4th gen aircraft

S-300 threat is overrated. No doubt it is a potent air defense system, but only if it can keep its radars intact.

 

[asianobserve]

You think so? I expect a few Tomahawks to fly (good to renew USN inventory) and a no-fly zone to be imposed at most, but no territory to be an objective.

Well if NATO actions push through and Assad's command and control structure is severely degraded, this is the actual target of any Syrian strike, then I think the rebels have a greater chances of deposing Assad. And if Assad is deposed I don't think it will be business as usual for the Russians in Syria.

 

[asianobserve]

With kerry making no mention about any UN resolution or anything like, it seems that UN will be bypassed.

There's always the United Nations of Arabs, I mean Arab League and of course NATO to give semblance of international consensus. Simple truth is that if the US wants it so bad then it will get it.

And another simple truth, the leader of the most powerful country in the World will not be drawing red lines without carrying out punitive measures against violations thereof. This is where Putin's endless blubbering differs from Obama's measured statements.

 

[bose]

Even if Saudi / Westen backed forces are on ground in Syria it will not be easy takeaway as we all know that Iranian elite troops are also present to back the Assad... it will lead to a civil war with repurcation on all the surrounding countries...

 

[asianobserve]

Indian interests lie with assad and not the wahabhi nutjobs he's fighting against.

Then prepare to say good bye to Indian interests. (You may like to see a lake in the desert but the reality is that the area is still a desert, and no lake.)

We must let our views be known in the international arena.

Well India can always air out its views on any international issue, but will its voice be heeded? I think the more prudent approach for India now is to play coy to US overtures for support so that it can extract maximum concessions in a post-Assad Syria. But then in the end it must support the West. (To be a winner you must be with the winners)

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Obama doesn't need Congress to intervene in Syria - FRANCE 24

US President Barack Obama has the authority to launch air strikes against Syria. But he has to notify lawmakers in Congress -- a process which has begun, according to both sides.

"The administration is actively consulting with members of Congress, and we will continue to have these conversations in the days ahead," Kerry said Monday in a strongly-worded statement on Syria.

The Republican speaker of the House Of Representatives, John Boehner, has had "preliminary communication with the White House about the situation in Syria and any potential US response," his spokesman said.

The source is French, so invading Syria is OK?

 

[Params7]

Is Assad so stupid as to use chemical weapons and end up painting a target on his arse... something is just not right

Anybody who believes Assad used chemical weapons is extremely gullible in my opinion. Its blatant this is Iraq-tier fabrication so US can finally launch rockets into Syria. Russia and Assad both are repeatedly saying Assad's forces did not use those chemical weapons, and it makes no sense why he would on his own people, specially when he is already winning the civil war and beating the foreign-backed rebels down to a pulp.

The rebels are Al-Qaeda/Saudi Arabia backed by clerics who have declared its okay to rape civilian Syrian women conquered who have also been very repeatedly seen with chemical weapons. In any case, Assad is done. The US had made up its mind to invade.

Iran needs to watch out now. I predict a solid, bloody sectarian war between the new regime in Syria vs Iran if not a NATO invasion within the next 8 years.

 

[asianobserve]

Even if Saudi / Westen backed forces are on ground in Syria it will not be easy takeaway as we all know that Iranian elite troops are also present to back the Assad... it will lead to a civil war with repurcation on all the surrounding countries...

I think the war planners in the West has considered all angles in this case. A messy and costly long drawn involvement for Iran in Syria (in terms of Iranian lives and resources) would be a boon to Iranian revolutionaries. It would be an gigantic fountain of complaints for the Iranian population who are already experiencing one of the most severe economic crisis in recent times against. Plus not to mention that active Iranian involvement in Syria will tie up sizable Iranian military resources which is needed now more than ever to counter the increased American military in the Gulf. Hizbollah too would be tied up to Syria to the relief of the Isrealis.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Well if NATO actions push through and Assad's command and control structure is severely degraded, this is the actual target of any Syrian strike, then I think the rebels have a greater chances of deposing Assad. And if Assad is deposed I don't think it will be business as usual for the Russians in Syria.

"This" means Tartus, then? Or if the insurgents prevail, Russia loses Syria as a client? I think the latter would follow.

 

[asianobserve]

I think the latter would follow.

Of course we can only speculate as it is too early. We don't even know if the rebels will prevail, but I think the West (America is particular) has already passed the point of no return as far as Syrian attack is concerned. And if the rebels prevail there's no doubt in my mind that the Russian's will have very little to no leverage against the new regime (whatever that might look like).

 

[bose]

I think the war planners in the West has considered all angles in this case. A messy and costly long drawn involvement for Iran in Syria (in terms of Iranian lives and resources) would be a boon to Iranian revolutionaries. It would be an gigantic fountain of complaints for the Iranian population who are already experiencing one of the most severe economic crisis in recent times against. Plus not to mention that active Iranian involvement in Syria will tie up sizable Iranian military resources which is needed now more than ever to counter the increased American military in the Gulf. Hizbollah too would be tied up to Syria to the relief of the Isrealis.

A long drawn messy affair will also affect the Saudis / Western interest too with oil prices too sensitive to regional dynamics"¦ I can only see this conflict going out of control and spilling to other areas such as Lebanon, Bahrain and also into Iraq with sizeable Shia population"¦ It will only create more chaos and human sufferings"¦

Yes Iran will also be at the receiving end, it economy just does not permit any war efforts, it will also crumble for sure, but it remains to be seen how Saudi / Western allies can close the Assad chapter very quickly with minimum bloodshed"¦ if the conflict spreads and gets long drawn with mounting human casualties I see a dark days ahead"¦

 

[asianobserve]

If Russia loses Syria then the blame falls squarely on Putin. Putin's anti-American rant may have started out as a smart political ploy for his domestic audience but then he has turned it already into a cornerstone of his regime. And the worst thing is that it he has always painted Russia as equal to the US and consistently taunted US displeasure even of the latter was intent on a reset relationship. Maybe after a long time of repeating his mantra that the US is weak or that Russia is still its geopolitical counterweight Putin has truly believed that this is true. Unfortunately for Russian interest this is not true.

 

[asianobserve]

xxx but it remains to be seen how Saudi / Western allies can close the Assad chapter very quickly with minimum bloodshed"¦ if the conflict spreads and gets long drawn with mounting human casualties I see a dark days ahead"¦

The Saudis would certainly enjoy higher oil prices due to wider conflict in Syria.

 

[bose]

If Russia loses Syria then the blame falls squarely on Putin. Putin's anti-American rant may have started out as a smart political ploy for his domestic audience but then he has turned it already into a cornerstone of his regime. And the worst thing is that it he has always painted Russia as equal to the US and consistently taunted US displeasure even of the latter was intent on a reset relationship. Maybe after a long time of repeating his mantra that the US is weak or that Russia is still its geopolitical counterweight Putin has truly believed that this is true. Unfortunately for Russian interest this is not true.

Putin is very sure about Russian Oil & Gas will fetch the necessary leverage to persue his agenda... Since China and Inida is energy hungry and here assured Russian Oil supplies will give Putin confidence...

 

[asianobserve]

Putin is very sure about Russian Oil & Gas will fetch the necessary leverage to persue his agenda... Since China and Inida is energy hungry and here assured Russian Oil supplies will give Putin confidence...

Well Russian energy resources is not going anywhere regardless of the events in Syria. What is at stake is its Base in Syria and its dwindling influence in that region.

 

[Params7]

Just came across this Assad interview - lot of good information.

Bashar al-Assad: «All contracts signed with Russia are implemented» - Известия

 

[bose]

Well Russian energy resources is not going anywhere regardless of the events in Syria. What is at stake is its Base in Syria and its dwindling influence in that region.

Very true loss of Syria will be a big blow to Russia... But Russia along with Iran will prolong the conflict [Currently it holds the upper hand] and spread it to other countries for much dislike to Saudi / Western allies...as my earlier reply was on different context, Putin's thinks that it can leverage its huge resource reserve for its political agenda v/s US / NATO...

 

[SajeevJino]

Does Anybody watching CNN ..please Confirm

 

[SajeevJino]

Just Some Harriers and two Cargo Planes in Akrotiri air base on Cyprus