The Syrian Crisis

amoy

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What does this imply for the Jewish State?

Battle for Damascus is over. Is Israel intelligence slow on Syrian war?

The early calculus that the Syrian battlefield would erode Hizballah's strength held Israel back from obstructing the flow of Hizballah military strength into Syria. It has been proven wrong.

Instead of growing weaker, Iran's Lebanese proxy is poised to open another warfront and force the IDF to adapt to a new military challenge from the Syrian Golan.

Unlike its previous wars against Israel, this time Hizballah will not confront Israel alone. On May 30, when the Syrian ruler spoke of "popular" demands to mount "resistance" operations against Israel from the Golan, he didn't mention Hizballah because he was referring to demands coming from inside Syria.
 

wrigsted

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Not that I'm a fan of Assad, but if he falls there will be a genocide of the Alawites. What started as a popular demands for reform, was exploited to start a bloodbath that will never benefit Syria. That's pretty obvious that the "rebels" are supporting political and financial of an unholy alliance between Saudi, Israle, U.S.., UK / France, various Sunni countries / interests and Wahhabis wannabes. The Western media is so bias it's embarrassing when they should know better than to eat raw what always eventually turns out to be propaganda.
 

pmaitra

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Syrian army retakes key town of Qusair from rebels

Syrian government forces have taken full control of the strategic town of Qusair, state TV and the rebels say.

The town, near the Lebanese border, has been the focus of fierce fighting for more than two weeks between rebels and Syrian troops backed by fighters from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

State TV said a large number of rebels had died and many others had surrendered as troops advanced swiftly.

The rebels said they withdrew overnight in the face of a massive assault.
Video and full article: BBC News - Syrian army retakes key town of Qusair from rebels
 

Virendra

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Syria rebels seize UN post in Golan Heights - Indian Express

ISABEL KERSHNER


Rebels fighting the Syrian government seized the only border crossing along the Israeli-Syrian ceasefire line in the Golan Heights Thursday, according to Israeli military and rebel groups, forcing the UN peacekeeping soldiers who patrol the crossing to vacate it and bringing the Syrian conflict ever closer to Israeli-held territory.

Israeli forces were placed on alert along the frontier as the violence of the Syrian civil war threatened to spill over.

The rebel takeover of the border crossing, Quneitra, lasted for at least several hours, and it was unclear by late Thursday whether Syrian government forces had routed them. Clashes in the area raged through much of the day.

The mayhem was enough to threaten the continuation of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, the longtime peacekeeping mission in the sensitive and disputed area.

The Quneitra crossing is patrolled by Austrian United Nations peacekeepers, who were ordered to pull back for their own safety.

Later in Vienna, the Austrian government said it was withdrawing its contingent from the force. Chancellor, Werner Faymann, was quoted by APA, the Austrian press agency, as saying he had spoken with Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general, and "personally informed him about the decision".

Josephine Guerrero, a spokeswoman for the UN peacekeeping forces, confirmed in an e-mail that Austria had informed the United Nations of its intended withdrawal. She also said two personnel from the peacekeeping force were injured by mortar rounds fired in the area but did not further identify them.

Austrians account for about 380 of the 1,000-strong United Nations force that has monitored the disengagement zone between Israeli and Syrian forces on the Golan Heights since 1974. The Philippines provides about 300 and India provides the rest. A fourth country, Croatia, withdrew its contingent earlier this year.
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amoy

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Qusayr was a debacle for the West and Israel: Aftershocks in Lebanon, Golan and Gaza Strip

This alliance is already at work building on its success - not just in the Syria conflict, but beyond its borders too.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has posted 20,000 troops on the Syrian border to seal it off against the passage of Sunni and al Qaeda reinforcements for the Syria rebels. Iraqi commandoes are preparing to launch raids against al Qaeda-linked forces in eastern Syria. The Nusra Front, for instance, appears to have vanished from the battlefield and keeping a low profile.

Syria's half million Druzes, sheltering away from the conflict in their mountain villages on Jebel Druze in the south, were given an ultimatum by Hizballah to proclaim their loyalty to Bashar Assad or face attack.

Hizballah aggression against the Syrian Druzes would have major connotations for the community in Lebanon and its leader, Walid Jumblatt. On the other hand, if Syrian Druzes threw in their lot with the Assad regime, the Druzes of Lebanon would be forced to line up with Iran's proxy. This realignment would counteract the Syrian rebels' threat to strike Hizballah strongholds inside Lebanon. And these shifts would leave the Druze villagers on the Israeli Golan few options but to line up with the rest.

Unnoticed by Israel, the long arm of the Syrian war has reached deep into the Gaza Strip. Its Palestinian Hamas rulers lost no time in jumping on the winning bandwagon. A delegation is already in Tehran waiting to plead for a new military cooperation pact.

Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas politburo chief Khaled Meshaal faced heavy pressure to turn away from their ties with Turkey and Qatar and renew the military pact Hamas signed with Iran and Hizballah in September 2012


 

IBSA

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Who belongs to the yellow flag in the picture above?? Hezbollah troops??
 

SajeevJino

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terrorists look surrounded to me :herp:

I think they goes for Final Assault

I don't know why The Russian can't shout to Assad to making his stand with Hizbullah
Isn't Hizbullah a Declared Terrorist Group Operating along Middle East
 

Poseidon

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Hezbollah defeated FSA in Qusair just like it defeated IDF in Bint Jbeil.
 

amoy

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UN Ambassador Susan Rice To Be Named Obama's National Security Adviser

What advice will Miss Rice offer Prez. Obama? She commented on BBC News - China and Russia veto UN resolution condemning Syria back on 5 October 2011

The US envoy to the UN said Washington was "outraged" by the vote.

Susan Rice, who walked out after the vote, said opposition to the resolution was a "cheap ruse by those who would rather sell arms to the Syrian regime than stand with the Syrian people".

Isn't Hizbullah a Declared Terrorist Group Operating along Middle East
Hez isn't IMO a terrorist group, nor is Hamas.
 

The Last Stand

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Stupid ambassador. :dude:

Excellent work by China and Russia then though. The regime is better than the so called "rebels". China was finally exercising its veto powers.

UN Security Council said:
Russian ambassador: Stupid Americans, they think that the rebels are better than Assad.
Chinese ambassador: Let's veto this darn vote.
Russian ambassador: You took the words out of my mouth.

Voting ends. Do any of the permanent members have objections?

Both ambassadors: Yep. We veto this nonsense.
American ambassador: *blah* *blah* Stupid Russkies *blah* *blah* Stupid Chinese
Russian ambassador: :fyeah:
 
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sorcerer

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Syria: A guidebook for tomorrow's diplomats

Some international crises become real-life manuals for students of diplomacy and international relations, Syria being a distinctive example. It is an ideal case study, especially now that everyone is looking forward to the upcoming peace conference.

"If you want peace, prepare for war" is an ancient adage — but one that is still true today, as sabers rattle ahead of the hypothetical roundtable, which is expected to gather all stakeholders and help them decide how to move on.

The EU decided not to extend the embargo on arms supplies to Syria (to Syrian rebels, to be more precise), although the UK and France were the only ones actively calling for abolition of the limitations, while other member-states voiced their doubts as to whether going deep into the civil war was a rational move.

There is a clear political message in the declaration about the willingness to support the opposition. The statement indicates that the power scenario remains a realistic option. In other words, if there is no agreement, there will be war to the bitter end.

Russia has essentially the same logic, for it neither admits nor denies supplies of S-300 missile systems and other advanced arms to Damascus.

This approach may have an inverted effect, though. So far, one gets the impression that each conflicting party is drawing a single, simple conclusion from looking at the political games played by major powers: Whatever happens, no one will give up on them, so it is worth going on fighting.

Both Assad and his opponents are well aware that their foreign patrons — Russia and the West, respectively — cannot stop supporting their allies without suffering a serious blow to their image.

It is a matter of principle for Moscow, Washington and Syria. Russia backs the secular rulers (however undemocratic) and non-interference.

The West, for its part, is busy choosing between ideological schemes featuring a "revolting nation" and "bloody dictator" and the wish to adopt the standard conflict-resolution model that crystalized following the Cold War: Choose the "right" conflicting party and help it come to power.
:rofl:To give up on allies is not just a move to put the eggs pragmatically in a different basket but an ideological concession that will affect self-esteem.

The purpose of the peace conferences of the past — including the Yalta and Potsdam conferences — was to divide up the world. In recent history, peace conferences of this kind have mostly centered on the Balkans: the Dayton Agreement on Bosnia of 1995 and the Kosovo crisis of 1999. Because these two may be used as models for resolving the Syrian crisis, it would be helpful to analyze both of them.


Dayton would be a positive option. The external players managed to get the warring parties around the negotiating table and make them agree a new map of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Optimists hope that the Geneva-2 conference on the Syrian crisis will be just as successful as the Dayton meeting.

Pessimists refer to the Rambouillet Conference on Kosovo in early February 1999: a result of enormous diplomatic efforts that had no tangible outcome, because tensions had reached the limit.

We should not be drawing direct analogies with Syria, as there are too many specifics; yet rapid escalation is quite likely, unless the peace conference achieves a breakthrough (which is currently impossible).

The Syrian crisis is fundamentally different from anything that has ever happened previously.

Whenever major world powers get involved in a local conflict and champion the peace process, they always pursue their own interests, having in mind a clear picture of future benefits. Backed by the United States, Western European nations made changes to the strategic landscape of Europe on the basis of the assumptions that predominated after the Cold War.

When it comes to Syria, it is impossible to understand the direct and specific interest of the United States, Europe and Russia, apart from the image issues mentioned above.


An extension of the sphere of influence to the Middle East is an almost utopian idea. External forces are desperately looking for the right response to what has already happened and a way to adapt to the new realities, which have been reshaped beyond their will and wishes: So what sort of strategy are we talking about?

Even the nations that have applied interests in the region — Syria's neighbors, from Iran to Saudi Arabia and Qatar — are keeping silent about the conference. They make virtually no statements, but whether the warring parties will negotiate ultimately depends on these countries.

The big games played by big international players used to be interwoven with smaller plots devised by local players — but big plans always remained front and center. The situation is different now: Local processes are quite logical, while the big fish are involved somewhere on a parallel track, and those who lead often switch places with those who follow.

The Syrian crisis is an inexhaustible source of experience for historians of the future, but, for diplomats of today, it is an almost impossible mission.

Fyodor Lukyanov is the chairman of the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy.

The opinion is first published in Russian in Gazeta.ru.
Syria: A guidebook for tomorrow's diplomats | Russia & India Report



@Ray @Waffen SS and other defence professionals.
 
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SajeevJino

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Large US Marine force lands
in Aqaba to deploy on Jordanian-Syrian border


A large American military force
disembarked Tuesday, June 4, at the
southern Jordanian port of Aqaba - ready
for deployment on the kingdom's Syrian
border, DEBKAfile's exclusive military
sources report. The force made its way
north along the Aqaba-Jerash-Ajilon
mountain road bisecting Jordan from south
to north, under heavy Jordanian military
escort.
Our sources disclose that this American
force numbers 1,000 troops, the largest to
land in Jordan since the Syrian civil war
erupted in March 2012. They are members
of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Force
carried aboard the USS Kearsage
amphibious assault ship, which has been
anchored off neighboring Israeli Eilat since
mid-May. Upon landing, the marines took
to the road in a convoy of armored vehicles
including Hummers.


debka.com/article/23019/Large-US-Marine-force-lands-in-Aqaba-to-deploy-on-Jordanian-Syrian-border
 

amoy

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The 4th Media » President Bashar Al-Assad Full Interview with the Lebanese al-Manar TV

Al-Manar: Mr. President, we are in the heart of the People's Palace, two and a half years into the Syrian crisis. At the time, the bet was that the president and his regime would be overthrown within weeks. How have you managed to foil the plots of your opponents and enemies? What is the secret behind this steadfastness?

President Assad: There are a number of factors are involved. One is the Syrian factor, which thwarted their intentions; the other factor is related to those who masterminded these scenarios and ended up defeating themselves because they do not know Syria or understand in detail the situation. They started with the calls of revolution, but a real revolution requires tangible elements; you cannot create a revolution simply by paying money. When this approach failed, they shifted to using sectarian slogans in order to create a division within our society. Even though they were able to infiltrate certain pockets in Syrian society, pockets of ignorance and lack of awareness that exist in any society, they were not able to create this sectarian division. Had they succeeded, Syria would have been divided up from the beginning. They also fell into their own trap by trying to promote the notion that this was a struggle to maintain power rather than a struggle for national sovereignty. No one would fight and martyr themselves in order to secure power for anyone else.

Al-Manar: In the battle for the homeland, it seems that the Syrian leadership, and after two and a half years, is making progress on the battlefield. And here if I might ask you, why have you chosen to move from defense to attack? And don't you think that you have been late in taking the decision to go on the offensive, and consequently incurred heavy losses, if we take of Al-Qseir as an example.

President Assad: It is not a question of defense or attack. Every battle has its own tactics. From the beginning, we did not deal with each situation from a military perspective alone. We also factored in the social and political aspects as well – many Syrians were misled in the beginning and there were many friendly countries that didn't understand the domestic dynamics. Your actions will differ according to how much consensus there is over a particular issue. There is no doubt that as events have unfolded Syrians have been able to better understand the situation and what is really at stake. This has helped the Armed Forces to better carry out their duties and achieve results. So, what is happening now is not a shift in tactic from defense to attack, but rather a shift in the balance of power in favor of the Armed Forces.

Al-Manar: How has this balance been tipped, Mr. President? Syria is being criticized for asking for the assistance of foreign fighters, and to be fully candid, it is said that Hezbollah fighters are extending assistance. In a previous interview, you said that there are 23 million Syrians; we do not need help from anyone else. What is Hezbollah doing in Syria?

President Assad: The main reason for tipping the balance is the change in people's opinion in areas that used to incubate armed groups, not necessarily due to lack of patriotism on their part, but because they were deceived. They were led to believe that there was a revolution against the failings of the state. This has changed; many individuals have left these terrorist groups and have returned to their normal lives. As to what is being said about Hezbollah and the participation of foreign fighters alongside the Syrian Army, this is a hugely important issue and has several factors. Each of these factors should be clearly understood. Hezbollah, the battle at Al-Qseir and the recent Israeli airstrike – these three factors cannot be looked at in isolation of the other, they are all a part of the same issue. Let's be frank. In recent weeks, and particularly after Mr. Hasan Nasrallah's speech, Arab and foreign media have said that Hezbollah fighters are fighting in Syria and defending the Syrian state, or to use their words "the regime." Logically speaking, if Hezbollah or the resistance wanted to defend Syria by sending fighters, how many could they send – a few hundred, a thousand or two? We are talking about a battle in which hundreds of thousands of Syrian troops are involved against tens of thousands of terrorists, if not more because of the constant flow of fighters from neighboring and foreign countries that support those terrorists. So clearly, the number of fighters Hezbollah might contribute in order to defend the Syrian state in its battle, would be a drop in the ocean compared to the number of Syrian soldiers fighting the terrorists. When also taking into account the vast expanse of Syria, these numbers will neither protect a state nor 'regime.' This is from one perspective. From another, if they say they are defending the state, why now? Battles started after Ramadan in 2011 and escalated into 2012, the summer of 2012 to be precise. They started the battle to "liberate Damascus" and set a zero hour for the first time, the second time and a third time; the four generals were assassinated, a number of individuals fled Syria, and many people believed that was the time the state would collapse. It didn't. Nevertheless, during all of these times, Hezbollah never intervened, so why would it intervene now? More importantly, why haven't we seen Hezbollah fighting in Damascus and Aleppo? The more significant battles are in Damascus and in Aleppo, not in Al-Qseir. Al-Qseir is a small town in Homs, why haven't we seen Hezbollah in the city of Homs? Clearly, all these assumptions are inaccurate. They say Al-Qseir is a strategic border town, but all the borders are strategic for the terrorists in order to smuggle in their fighters and weapons. So, all these propositions have nothing to do with Hezbollah. If we take into account the moans and groans of the Arab media, the statements made by Arab and foreign officials – even Ban Ki-moon expressed concern over Hezbollah in Al-Qseir – all of this is for the objective of suppressing and stifling the resistance. It has nothing to do with defending the Syrian state. The Syrian army has made significant achievements in Damascus, Aleppo, rural Damascus and many other areas; however, we haven't heard the same moaning as we have heard in Al-Qseir.

Al-Manar: But, Mr. President, the nature of the battle that you and Hezbollah are waging in Al-Qseir seems, to your critics, to take the shape of a safe corridor connecting the coastal region with Damascus. Consequently, if Syria were to be divided, or if geographical changes were to be enforced, this would pave the way for an Alawite state. So, what is the nature of this battle, and how is it connected with the conflict with Israel.

President Assad: First, the Syrian and Lebanese coastal areas are not connected through Al-Qseir. Geographically this is not possible. Second, nobody would fight a battle in order to move towards separation. If you opt for separation, you move towards that objective without waging battles all over the country in order to be pushed into a particular corner. The nature of the battle does not indicate that we are heading for division, but rather the opposite, we are ensuring we remain a united country. Our forefathers rejected the idea of division when the French proposed this during their occupation of Syria because at the time they were very aware of its consequences. Is it possible or even fathomable that generations later, we their children, are less aware or mindful? Once again, the battle in Al-Qseir and all the bemoaning is related to Israel. The timing of the battle in Al-Qseir was synchronized with the Israeli airstrike. Their objective is to stifle the resistance. This is the same old campaign taking on a different form. Now what's important is not al-Qseir as a town, but the borders; they want to stifle the resistance from land and from the sea. Here the question begs itself – some have said that the resistance should face the enemy and consequently remain in the south. This was said on May 7, 2008, when some of Israel's agents in Lebanon tried to tamper with the communications system of the resistance; they claimed that the resistance turned its weapons inwards. They said the same thing about the Syrian Army; that the Syrian Army should fight on the borders with Israel. We have said very clearly that our Army will fight the enemy wherever it is. When the enemy is in the north, we move north; the same applies if the enemy comes from the east or the west. This is also the case for Hezbollah. So the question is why is Hezbollah deployed on the borders inside Lebanon or inside Syria? The answer is that our battle is a battle against the Israeli enemy and its proxies inside Syria or inside Lebanon.
Al-Manar: Mr. President, the events in Syria are spilling over to neighboring countries. We see what's happening in Iraq, the explosions in Al-Rihaniye in Turkey and also in Lebanon. In Ersal, Tripoli, Hezbollah taking part in the fighting in Al-Qseir. How does Syria approach the situation in Lebanon, and do you think the Lebanese policy of dissociation is still applied or accepted?



President Assad: Let me pose some questions based on the reality in Syria and in Lebanon about the policy of dissociation in order not to be accused of making a value judgment on whether this policy is right or wrong. Let's start with some simple questions: Has Lebanon been able to prevent Lebanese interference in Syria? Has it been able to prevent the smuggling of terrorists or weapons into Syria or providing a safe haven for them in Lebanon? It hasn't; in fact, everyone knows that Lebanon has contributed negatively to the Syrian crisis. Most recently, has Lebanon been able to protect itself against the consequences of the Syrian crisis, most markedly in Tripoli and the missiles that have been falling over different areas of Beirut or its surroundings? It hasn't. So what kind of dissociation are we talking about? For Lebanon to dissociate itself from the crisis is one thing, and for the government to dissociate itself is another. When the government dissociates itself from a certain issue that affects the interests of the Lebanese people, it is in fact dissociating itself from the Lebanese citizens. I'm not criticizing the Lebanese government – I'm talking about general principles. I don't want it to be said that I'm criticizing this government. If the Syrian government were to dissociate itself from issues that are of concern to the Syrian people, it would also fail. So in response to your question with regards to Lebanon's policy of dissociation, we don't believe this is realistically possible. When my neighbor's house is on fire, I cannot say that it's none of my business because sooner or later the fire will spread to my house.
Al-Manar: Mr. President, you mentioned the Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal. This makes me ask about Syria's relationship with Saudi Arabia, with Qatar, with Turkey, particularly if we take into account that their recent position in the Arab ministerial committee was relatively moderate. They did not directly and publically call for the ouster of President Assad. Do you feel any change or any support on the part of these countries for a political solution to the Syrian crisis? And is Syria prepared to deal once more with the Arab League, taking into account that the Syrian government asked for an apology from the Arab League?

President Assad: Concerning the Arab states, we see brief changes in their rhetoric but not in their actions. The countries that support the terrorists have not changed; they are still supporting terrorism to the same extent. Turkey also has not made any positive steps. As for Qatar, their role is also the same, the role of the funder – the bank funding the terrorists and supporting them through Turkey. So, overall, no change. As for the Arab League, in Syria we have never pinned our hopes on the Arab League. Even in the past decades, we were barely able to dismantle the mines set for us in the different meetings, whether in the summits or in meetings of the foreign ministers. So in light of this and its recent actions, can we really expect it to play a role? We are open to everybody, we never close our doors. But we should also be realistic and face the truth that they are unable to offer anything, particularly since a significant number of the Arab states are not independent. They receive their orders from the outside. Some of them are sympathetic to us in their hearts, but they cannot act on their feelings because they are not in possession of their decisions. So, no, we do not pin any hopes on the Arab League.

Al-Manar: Mr. President, this leads us to ask: if the Arab environment is as such, and taking into account the developments on the ground and the steadfastness, the Geneva conference and the negotiations, the basic question is: what if the political negotiations fail? What are the consequences of the failure of political negotiations?

President Assad: This is quite possible, because there are states that are obstructing the meeting in principle, and they are going only to avoid embarrassment. They are opposed to any dialogue whether inside or outside Syria. Even the Russians, in several statements, have dampened expectations from this conference. But we should also be accurate in defining this dialogue, particularly in relation to what is happening on the ground. Most of the factions engaged in talking about what is happening in Syria have no influence on the ground; they don't even have direct relationships with the terrorists. In some instances these terrorists are directly linked with the states that are backing them, in other cases, they are mere gangs paid to carry out terrorist activities. So, the failure of the conference will not significantly change the reality inside Syria, because these states will not stop supporting the terrorists – conference or no conference, and the gangs will not stop their subversive activities. So it has no impact on them.
 
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The Last Stand

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@W.G.Ewald, if US is deploying assets on the border, who are they aiming to eliminate? Assad or the islamists? Where does the pendulum sway?
 
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SajeevJino

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US seems determined to support the wrong side, Assad is doomed. But I still believe that there are sane people in every government.
US supporting Terrorists (FSA) and Russians Supports another Terrorists (Hizbullah)
 

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