The Longer Telegram

DerBronzeLord

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This thread is for the discussion of The Longer Telegram.




The Longer Telegram




Introduction

On 27th January, a former senior government official of the US State Department released a document called "The Longer Telegram", highlighting what policies the US should adopt in containing China, what are America's deficiencies are today, and what has to be done to rectify these deficiencies. The author, who is anonymous at this point in time, requested specifically that the document be called as "The Longer Telegram", referencing the Long Telegram, or the X Article, which was formally known as "The Sources of Soviet Conduct" written by George Keenan, Deputy Chief of Mission of the United States to Moscow, on February 22, 1946, advocating for a containment policy of Soviet Russia.


Having read the article thoroughly, and considering that the writer is a senior State Department Official, who is still within the new administration, I am writing a few things here, based on my interpretation of the document, which are of high importance for India, in a very short form:

1. "any act of large-scale military or economic belligerence against US treaty allies or other critical strategic partners, including India"

This statement is a part of a list of 5 points, stating the red lines for America, where the list also includes Chinese active genocide campaigns, cyber-attacks, unwillingness to engage in bilateral talks, etc.

India, even under the new administration, is apparently considered as a critical security partner, which might put to rest discussions on the neutrality, or lack thereof on part of the new Administration. India is considered as an ally on par with its treaty allies, such as Australia or Japan. In my personal view, the importance of Indo-US relations under the new Administration, was seen in the order of calls made by the President, and the Sec of State. While I agree that this is a primitive form of judging importance, it is a pointer to adjudge ties. The first calls were made to America's land-bordering neighbors, Mexico and Canada, followed by American treaty partners in the Indo-Pacific, which were Japan, Australia and South Korea, followed by American NATO allies, possibly to mend relations which were severely degraded by the previous Administration. What was surprising, was that India was called next, excluding several close American allies all over the world, such as European countries or South America. Add to this that there have been two different conversations between the Foreign Minister, and the Sec of State in a matter of 3 weeks.

However, as has been rightly pointed out several times on this very forum, the new Administration cannot be fully trusted, primarily due to the fact that the new VP, again, in my opinion, was selected, not due to political merit or personal likes on part of the President, but due to the undue power the extreme-left of the Democratic Party holds today. The VP is, quite possibly, only a representative of this wing. "Human rights", and several other sticking points between our two nations could be brought up. However, the @Meena problem, is, in my opinion, NOT White House policy. Several family members of sitting Presidents or Vice Presidents have taken publicly to their opinions on several matters of global importance, as was seen during the Reagan, Bush and Clinton eras. Attention should also be paid to the US Congress, where India is gradually losing the little power it has held, and Indian allies in the US are either being vilified, or are switching sides. There must also be a focus on Western Media, which has increasingly taken a hard line against India, blowing several things out of proportion, while covering up Pakistani and Chinese crimes. The belief that there is a coordinated force running this propaganda campaign against India, is well-founded, and must also be handled with urgency, all while curbing Woke influence, and ensuring that Indians don't indulge in anti-national activities. One possible method is the consolidation of the Indian vote-bank across the world, as this would be a valuable foreign policy tool for India(Discuss this).

An article worth considering,

https://www.ft.com/content/1f5b1cde-2164-406c-8535-368a624cca62


2. "concluding a fully operationalized Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with India, Japan, and Australia by inducing India to abandon its final political and strategic reservations against such an arrangement"


Not much to write, may write something elsewhere.


3. "Its power projection into the Indian Ocean region will accelerate, supported by a growing range of dual-use port and air facilities across South and Southeast Asia, East Africa, and the Middle East. Strategic competition between China and the United States over the Gulf States will become more acute given relative US energy self-sufficiency and China’s replacement of the United States as the Gulf’s largest energy market."


This point is of critical importance, considering that the Indian Navy is woefully out-classed by the Chinese Navy. A Chinese thrust into the Indian Ocean, coupled with the Gulf becoming economically dependent on China, is a worst-case scenario for India in our extended neighborhood. A Gulf, which has only recently started warming up to India, falling into hostile, and more devious hands once more, is a massive loss for India. However, instead of focusing on increasing oil imports from the Gulf, India could use a different tactic, which is much cheaper, and more effective, but dependent on an external variable, Saudi-US ties.

As is quite well known, oil is quickly dying out as an energy source, with most countries heading over to renewable. The Gulf governments' desire to diversify their economies is manifesting in several forms, from the construction of Neom, a "futuristic" city in Saudi Arabia, to the UAE's investments in science and the establishment of massive foreign investment funds, such as Mubadala. However, the Arabs have a severe deficiency in their economies. 90+% of Saudi Arabia's exports are oil, and this is something which has continued for decades, financing everything, from Wahhabism to massive Palaces in the desert. However, this sole focus on oil has prevented it from doing literally anything else of economic value in the last 80 years, resulting in the dawning realization among Arabs of a need for massive turnaround in their economies towards other sectors.

However, the infrastructure or expertise needed is just not present among the Arabs, due to which, they intend to use a different approach to attract talent and get them to work in the UAE, and this is the field where India must attempt to gain leverage over the Middle East. The workers needed, along with the requisite engineers and other skilled workers will quite possibly be taken from India. The reason why only India can fulfill this position, while China can't is due to several geopolitical factors, primary among them being the Royals' dependence on America.

Saudi Arabia is a nation of several disparate tribes, clubbed together, and co-existing solely due to financial motives. The clerics give the kings their legitimacy via their holy proclamations, while the Kings fund the clerics and spread Wahhabism. However, MBS has overturned all of this, cutting down cleric influence massively, taking his legitimacy in his own hands by pushing a progressive agenda and pushing for economic modernization, gaining massive influence and support among the average Saudi youth and the Saudi Military and Intelligence. He has undertaken massive modernization projects, building new cities, pushing for investment into Saudi and using reserve oil money for investment abroad. However, this may be too little too late. Once the financial aid seizes, the warring tribes would fight with each other, with Iran stepping in to assist the neutral-ish tribes in the Nejd province. I believe, firmly, that Saudi Arabia is going to collapse in the next 10 years. You can disagree, but several events over the last few years have convinced me of this, and I believe that the Saudi Monarchs know this too. Saudi Arabia could go the way of Iraq. I intend to write more about this some other time.

Coming back to China. In the event that Saudi Arabia falls, Iranian, and by consequence, Chinese influence would increase exponentially, as was seen in Iraq. India needs to counter this by allying strongly with the UAE, aiding them in their military modernization, and enabling them to expand influence over the Middle East, all while diversifying their economy. UAE may just survive this upheaval, primarily due to the few fault lines in UAE society, and the large immigrant population. It is in India's best interests that the UAE becomes more powerful. Saudi Arabia will become a lawless hell-hole, and while this may be unfathomable/outright stupid in, quite possibly, the majority on this forum, that is the truth we have to face. Saudi will become a battleground like Syria, if managed well by the West and India, or Iraq, if managed poorly. Different countries with competing interests will try to establish power, primary of them being Iran+China, Russia, USA and India+UAE. Note that I have put Russia and Iran separately. This is due to the conflicting interests Iran and Russia would probably have with respect to Saudi oil. Though Russia and Iran are close, this is one issue where they wouldn't want the other side to win, with Russia actively preventing Iran from taking over Saudi oil fields. This will be interesting.

A Chinese+Iranian presence on the Western flank of the Indo-Pacific is not exactly in India's interest, as the Chinese would definitely use it to their interests to establish bases, as has already started in Iran. This would contribute to the String of Pearls.

Therefore, it is in India's best interests to utilize the Indian demographic in the Middle East to our advantage, expand co-operation with UAE in every field including defense, quite possibly start a mutual defense trilateral between India-UAE-Oman, and when the Saudis collapse, be willing to take an active role in that conflict.


4. "Chinese strategy toward Japan and India will be uncertain, with past strategies to deescalate tensions with Tokyo and New Delhi having stalled as traditional border tensions have resumed their previous role in dominating both of these relationships

5. "The United States should always bear in mind that China has no allies other than North Korea, Pakistan, and Russia, placing Beijing at a considerable strategic disadvantage globally relative to the United States."



I am honestly tired as fuck right now, and am leaving this here. I have many more thoughts on this, as the points raised, and several other events throughout the world are inter-connected to this Telegram, and whoever wrote this is clearly a very high-level official.

The next things I intend to write about are:

1. Turkey's future.
2. Alexei Navalny, and why he is good for India.
3. Saudi Arabia's coming collapse.

And many other things which I am still thinking about and making sense of.

I would suggest you guys to follow the Twitter handle @avarakai or Sniper, and the Youtube Channel, whatifalthis. Very interesting, and provide deep insights into some weird shit.
 

Peter

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Well articulated. I would like to add that we should not be gung ho about what the official US policy is but instead be cautious and understand what their actual motive is. China is going to be/is the foremost geopolitical power after the Wuhan chinese virus pandemic. Their economic might has to be curtailed and America needs allies for doing so. However America never shies away from backstabbing its own allies. It propped up Japan and then destroyed its economy with Plaza Accords when Japan was about to supersede USA. India would provide a good pawn against China and USA hopes the two nations destroy itself in a war.

Otoh China has to be countered and a strong China cannot co exist with a strong India. China wants to balkanize India and India wants to do the same with China. We have to accept America`s help in this regard but only accept policies that actually help us. We should stay away from short term gains like importing Western arms and destroying our indigenous arms factories. However American help in tech and IT sector would definitely help us.


 

DerBronzeLord

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Well articulated. I would like to add that we should not be gung ho about what the official US policy is but instead be cautious and understand what their actual motive is. China is going to be/is the foremost geopolitical power after the Wuhan chinese virus pandemic. Their economic might has to be curtailed and America needs allies for doing so. However America never shies away from backstabbing its own allies. It propped up Japan and then destroyed its economy with Plaza Accords when Japan was about to supersede USA. India would provide a good pawn against China and USA hopes the two nations destroy itself in a war.

Otoh China has to be countered and a strong China cannot co exist with a strong India. China wants to balkanize India and India wants to do the same with China. We have to accept America`s help in this regard but only accept policies that actually help us. We should stay away from short term gains like importing Western arms and destroying our indigenous arms factories. However American help in tech and IT sector would definitely help us.


I agree. Mao himself repeatedly told several high level diplomats(I believe the Sri Lankan ambassador as well?) that 1962 was not territorial in ambition, but to keep India in its "place". I believe that the CCP acknowledges that only India, and no other country on this planet, can ever rival China, in terms of manpower, resources, etc. Vietnam may be attracting manufacturing from China, but they don't consider Vietnam as a large threat primarily due to the fact that Vietnam has a small manpower, not many resources, and the cost of establishing factories is soon going to increase as they move to a high-income country. Therefore, China's ultimate aim is to balkanize India, and prevent it from ever becoming a rival power. Similar to a Thucydides Trap.

It is in India's interests to align with the US until we become strong enough, economically and militarily, to rival China. Until our achievement of the same, China will always be enemy no.1. However, our alliance with the US shouldn't be an alliance like the one the Americans have with Europe or Japan. A good analogy here is WW2, where the Soviets(representing India), allied woth the US and it's allies(UK and France then, Japan and Australia today), to defeat the Nazis(China today). We should attempt to gain the maximum investment and technology from the US, and for the duration of our alliance, we should NOT under any circumstance bend ourselves over and come under American pressure to do something in any matter. Upon achieving parity with China, we should leave our apprehensions about an alliance with China, and operate with both the US and China, competing and cooperating with each of them as necessary, while attempting to create our own power bloc.
 

sunshine

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I agree. Mao himself repeatedly told several high level diplomats(I believe the Sri Lankan ambassador as well?) that 1962 was not territorial in ambition, but to keep India in its "place". I believe that the CCP acknowledges that only India, and no other country on this planet, can ever rival China, in terms of manpower, resources, etc. Vietnam may be attracting manufacturing from China, but they don't consider Vietnam as a large threat primarily due to the fact that Vietnam has a small manpower, not many resources, and the cost of establishing factories is soon going to increase as they move to a high-income country. Therefore, China's ultimate aim is to balkanize India, and prevent it from ever becoming a rival power. Similar to a Thucydides Trap.

It is in India's interests to align with the US until we become strong enough, economically and militarily, to rival China. Until our achievement of the same, China will always be enemy no.1. However, our alliance with the US shouldn't be an alliance like the one the Americans have with Europe or Japan. A good analogy here is WW2, where the Soviets(representing India), allied woth the US and it's allies(UK and France then, Japan and Australia today), to defeat the Nazis(China today). We should attempt to gain the maximum investment and technology from the US, and for the duration of our alliance, we should NOT under any circumstance bend ourselves over and come under American pressure to do something in any matter. Upon achieving parity with China, we should leave our apprehensions about an alliance with China, and operate with both the US and China, competing and cooperating with each of them as necessary, while attempting to create our own power bloc.
In fact, India is not in the eyes of China, India has never been considered a threat in China
 

shade

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In fact, India is not in the eyes of China, India has never been considered a threat in China
India is a threat to China, even the CCP thinks so, not on the level of US, not on the joke level of say Mongolia, but somewhere as a medium level threat, backed by the "Evil West", in the future, it is certainly a possibility unless India is balkanized.

In any case practically for you and your Government, they seem to have a cozy "arrangement" with the current US dispensation, both governmental and corporate, so aside from jhumlas of Human Rights over HK/Uyghur/Tibet and re-hashed but ultimately toothless talks about a "trade war" with China,

It is back to the glory days of Obama-era America and the "economic system" during that time,
Enjoy my Han friend :truestory:
The good days are back for you.

Except for your external affair ministy/Foreign ministry that will have to come up with even spicier statements to compete with the pronouncements of "Human Rights of HK/Uyghur/Tibet " from US
 

DerBronzeLord

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In fact, India is not in the eyes of China, India has never been considered a threat in China
Look at Mao and the Eleventh Emperor's statements. The Chinese public may not agree, but your Supreme Leaders do. I agree that India is not a threat right now to China, but the CCP fears that it will become one in the future.
 

shade

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Look at Mao and the Eleventh Emperor's statements. The Chinese public may not agree, but your Supreme Leaders do. I agree that India is not a threat right now to China, but the CCP fears that it will become one in the future.
Their greatest fear since even before CCP times and during their Imperial times is Tibet and "Xinjiang"/Tarim Basin being wrested away from them.
Mongoria, Tibet, Xinjiang all are buffers from Foreign threats against the Han core of China, it is similar to the Russian/Soviet model.
 

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