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I do feel the post is very interesting..so quote it .
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" I think China and India have chosen two different paths to development, but China chose the fastest and most efficient path. They'll both get there eventually..."
This is worng I believe. Indeed there is only ONE way of development. Yes, just ONE way available. That is to manufacture goods. This is called Industrialization. Only after one is industrialized, one can divert heavily into service industry, etc. Not other way around , at least in both theory and in history.
All world powers have been developed in this way:
1. UK - Made In England was THE trademark of 19th century. UK was "factory of the world" at that time, as China is today
2. US - still remember the big Made In U.S.A of early 20th century? US only started outsourcing 2 decades ago in a large scale.
3. Japan; Germany, etc.etc. everyone !
There is NO second way as India is doing. Indeed India is the first one in human history to do so. WOW!
Particularly, if India were a small country with tiny populace such as Monaco, it might have a chance. But it has 1.1 billion hungry people.
Think rationally ! Without powerful industries and manufactoring across the fields, how IT call centers ,some back office stuff, and some most basic IT sofetware programming can drag a country of 1.1 billion , soon to be the most populour one in the world, from a agriculture backwater into the first world or second world, ever?
Everyone becomes world power by Making something, not Talking something as India does. Look around at your house, your classroom, or your work place, you can easily see things made from every estalished world power, USA, China, Japan, Germany, France, etc, etc,... Korea, even Malaysia. Have you ever seen anything "Made-In -India", high tech or mid tech or low tech, at all?
The rational answer is no way!
Now some say that maybe India can copy China's way to manufacture goods now. The answer is still almost impossible! It's just too too late.
To manafacturing in China's scale, India needs to have:
1. Finance (money): it has very little ---- 70% of China's original fiannce decades ago mainly came from HongKong, Taiwan, Singapore, etc Chinese ethnic countries/regions. Where India gonna get money? Fiji, Maldives, Srilanka? Surely you can foeget about Uncle Sam now.
2. Cheap oil (energies) and cheap raw materials : When china was developing 3 decades ago, both oil and raw materails were dirt cheap. NOW? Super expensive! Where India gonna got oil ? And with waht? Surely It can't learn from the US go with guns in Iraq? It even don't have enough electricity to run a 24*7 factory without seveal cuts in between.
3. Work force: China has always > 93% literate, high IQ, diligent and focused work force from the very start. And India? Nearly half of the Indians are illiterate! Almost 7 out of 10 are either malnutricious or suffer chronic hunger! We just skip the rest requirements here, ok?
4. Infrastruture: Need I say more here?
So you see? India is the biggest media hype of our time.
Yes, It seems that it is growing , and fast, but a large part is still from backwater agriculture sector and some tiny niche areas, unlike China which depends on a mix of high-middle-low tech world-class industrial machine in almost all fields. So Indias' current growth is not sustainable since there is a limit to land sizes suitable for agriculture at the end of the day. And one can not grow 6-7% in a long run by basic software programming and back office "talking".
Some argues it can depend on it domestic market. NO, no, no! That's another misnomer. China's domestic market is MUCH larger compared to India's . Even China still can not depends on her internal market alone with her level of development. And India is at least 30 years behind China in industrailization path generally speaking.
I can not figure out with what India can beat industrial powerhouses of UK and France, even Korea(when South unites with the North) or even fast declining Russia (Russia 's oveall industrial muscle is still far stronger than India's ).
Despite all those top line growth, India GDP is still slightly more than Australia, a nation of 23 million people. Let alone ask one to imagine how and with what India can jump into the league of heavyweights such as Germany, Japan , China and the US in the future. No logical explainations avaliable. Therefore India is likely to become a second or thrid tier power in the future IF it is lucky.
The real India has already failed in my honest opinion because it has missed the train of industrialization, since its "development path"will proved to be just an illusion, a dead-end. I can barely see a decent chance left in today's world for India to be industrialized, even half -industrialized.
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" I think China and India have chosen two different paths to development, but China chose the fastest and most efficient path. They'll both get there eventually..."
This is worng I believe. Indeed there is only ONE way of development. Yes, just ONE way available. That is to manufacture goods. This is called Industrialization. Only after one is industrialized, one can divert heavily into service industry, etc. Not other way around , at least in both theory and in history.
All world powers have been developed in this way:
1. UK - Made In England was THE trademark of 19th century. UK was "factory of the world" at that time, as China is today
2. US - still remember the big Made In U.S.A of early 20th century? US only started outsourcing 2 decades ago in a large scale.
3. Japan; Germany, etc.etc. everyone !
There is NO second way as India is doing. Indeed India is the first one in human history to do so. WOW!
Particularly, if India were a small country with tiny populace such as Monaco, it might have a chance. But it has 1.1 billion hungry people.
Think rationally ! Without powerful industries and manufactoring across the fields, how IT call centers ,some back office stuff, and some most basic IT sofetware programming can drag a country of 1.1 billion , soon to be the most populour one in the world, from a agriculture backwater into the first world or second world, ever?
Everyone becomes world power by Making something, not Talking something as India does. Look around at your house, your classroom, or your work place, you can easily see things made from every estalished world power, USA, China, Japan, Germany, France, etc, etc,... Korea, even Malaysia. Have you ever seen anything "Made-In -India", high tech or mid tech or low tech, at all?
The rational answer is no way!
Now some say that maybe India can copy China's way to manufacture goods now. The answer is still almost impossible! It's just too too late.
To manafacturing in China's scale, India needs to have:
1. Finance (money): it has very little ---- 70% of China's original fiannce decades ago mainly came from HongKong, Taiwan, Singapore, etc Chinese ethnic countries/regions. Where India gonna get money? Fiji, Maldives, Srilanka? Surely you can foeget about Uncle Sam now.
2. Cheap oil (energies) and cheap raw materials : When china was developing 3 decades ago, both oil and raw materails were dirt cheap. NOW? Super expensive! Where India gonna got oil ? And with waht? Surely It can't learn from the US go with guns in Iraq? It even don't have enough electricity to run a 24*7 factory without seveal cuts in between.
3. Work force: China has always > 93% literate, high IQ, diligent and focused work force from the very start. And India? Nearly half of the Indians are illiterate! Almost 7 out of 10 are either malnutricious or suffer chronic hunger! We just skip the rest requirements here, ok?
4. Infrastruture: Need I say more here?
So you see? India is the biggest media hype of our time.
Yes, It seems that it is growing , and fast, but a large part is still from backwater agriculture sector and some tiny niche areas, unlike China which depends on a mix of high-middle-low tech world-class industrial machine in almost all fields. So Indias' current growth is not sustainable since there is a limit to land sizes suitable for agriculture at the end of the day. And one can not grow 6-7% in a long run by basic software programming and back office "talking".
Some argues it can depend on it domestic market. NO, no, no! That's another misnomer. China's domestic market is MUCH larger compared to India's . Even China still can not depends on her internal market alone with her level of development. And India is at least 30 years behind China in industrailization path generally speaking.
I can not figure out with what India can beat industrial powerhouses of UK and France, even Korea(when South unites with the North) or even fast declining Russia (Russia 's oveall industrial muscle is still far stronger than India's ).
Despite all those top line growth, India GDP is still slightly more than Australia, a nation of 23 million people. Let alone ask one to imagine how and with what India can jump into the league of heavyweights such as Germany, Japan , China and the US in the future. No logical explainations avaliable. Therefore India is likely to become a second or thrid tier power in the future IF it is lucky.
The real India has already failed in my honest opinion because it has missed the train of industrialization, since its "development path"will proved to be just an illusion, a dead-end. I can barely see a decent chance left in today's world for India to be industrialized, even half -industrialized.
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