The Covert Option

[Vinod2070]

that is a different ball game as per me Vinod. the "open heat" has to come from diplomatic channels with pressure built through international community through various measures.

as far as the intelligence services are concerned they should operate without being seen or any noise heard and should be out without any trail left until and unless they want to leave such a trail intentionally with a message to be passed on. the advantage of doing it quitely is that no one suspects you, and heat can never be turned back on you which helps in fighting for another day. take the case of ISI, it is seen as rouge and is condemned world wide and has been forced to be reigned in, why? they were not so long back "seen every where and were too loud". it never helps until the agency is cia and mossad.

Diplomacy has its place but you need to achieve results on the ground and diplomacy should reinforce that, not the other way round. That will not work with the rogues that we are dealing with.

The same thing happened in Kargil. We made the rats run on the ground and diplomacy aided that effort and the rats ran like cowards they were.

Yes, there should be no trails leading to our South block but the message should go out loud and clear. India is not to be messed with!

India and Pakistan are in different leagues. We can get away with much more.

 

[thakur_ritesh]

Yes, there should be no trails leading to our South block but the message should go out loud and clear. India is not to be messed with!

mate i am not getting this. if you want to be seen and heard as you say the message should go that india should not be messed with, in that case the fingers will direct in the direction of south block if not today but certainly tomorrow, you can duck under it once or twice but not always and once it is out the plot will be blown out of proportions and at a time when the international community is very sensitive to terror acts (since it will be projected like that) it is certainly a mess to be avoided, because if once you are seen instigating such acts, you wont be in a position to do it again, which will also put us on a back foot on the diplomatic front with hardly anyone ready to buy our argument on cross border terrorism, which helps in isolating pakistan from time to time.

 

[Vinod2070]

Well plausible deniability is what we need. People know that it only benefits you but there is no smoking gun pointing at your guilt.

Of course, the perception management and media management has to go hand in hand.

Let's face it, our diplomacy has been nothing to write home about. We have not been able to pin down Pakistan to the extent needed. No one is going to do our work for us when we can't.

 

[Singh]

@V -> Look at the fallout of
1. Mossad's Dubai hit. The Europeans, Arabs, even Israelis are baying for Mossad Chief's blood.
2. US's drone strikes

The days of high profile hits are over. And if our hand is even suggested in a "terror" attack in Pak, it can have huge(read negative) consequences.

--

EDIT : The reaction to Indian hand in terrorist attacks in Pak should solicit a What you smoking response from the West. Positive Absurdity not Plausible Deniability.

 

[Vinod2070]

@V -> Look at the fallout of
1. Mossad's Dubai hit. The Europeans, Arabs, even Israelis are baying for Mossad Chief's blood.
2. US's drone strikes

At least the drone strikes are highly successful and popular with the local tribals as well. They compared it with the Quranic miracles!

About Dubai hit, I think that sends a message to Hamas that they are not safe anywhere. A resignation or some noise is a small price to pay for that.

I agree that India may need to be a bit more careful but not too careful. We need to stand up for ourselves.

 

[johnee]

Singh Sahab, some excellent points in this thread. You pointed out well that Pakjabis are trying to deflect their domestic heat onto India by raising water issue. At another level, even the Kashmir was always in reality a water issue.

But one thing, our covert ops can always keep plausible deniability yet leave enough signs to suggest who is behind the hit. At this point in time, it is important that RAW if it can must do some highprofile hit within Pak to deter their anti-Indian activites by instilling some fear for covert retaliation. Otherwise, this one-sided attacks on India can spell disaster for India both economically and geo-politically.

 

[Singh]

Singh Sahab, some excellent points in this thread. You pointed out well that Pakjabis are trying to deflect their domestic heat onto India by raising water issue. At another level, even the Kashmir was always in reality a water issue.

But one thing, our covert ops can always keep plausible deniability yet leave enough signs to suggest who is behind the hit. At this point in time, it is important that RAW if it can must do some highprofile hit within Pak to deter their anti-Indian activites by instilling some fear for covert retaliation. Otherwise, this one-sided attacks on India can spell disaster for India both economically and geo-politically.

The Pak establishment is being targetted as it is by the militants, why should RAW get involved ? High profile hits in Pak would mean high profile hits in India too. And Pak has more capability than India. Pak's security scenario, economy, political situation is in free fall as it is. An attack by RAW would only unite the nation, today they are disunited because its the taliban that is attacking.

As it is Pak's grand terrorist attacks like the Parliament attack, 26/11 have done more harm to them than to us. High profile will not work. Not when West there and its goals are for the first time align with ours.

However, we must exploit the situation for the future, just in case.

 

[Singh]

At least the drone strikes are highly successful and popular with the local tribals as well. They compared it with the Quranic miracles!

About Dubai hit, I think that sends a message to Hamas that they are not safe anywhere. A resignation or some noise is a small price to pay for that.

I agree that India may need to be a bit more careful but not too careful. We need to stand up for ourselves.

Because its high profile drone strikes are one of the main reasons why an "average Pakistani" hates US so much.

And the Dubai hit backfired on a biblical scale. Not only it gives a free license to Hamas to carry out suicide attacks but also results in diplomatic alienation, strained relations, risk to Israeli expats, lionizing of this fellow, gives Iran excuse to supply even more arms and highlighted Iran's role as the main supporter of Palestinians.

India doesn't have
1. the capability
2. the clout
3. the conditions -> Pak is the jugular vein of Af ops.
to carry out such a hit

 

[Vinod2070]

Because its high profile drone strikes are one of the main reasons why an "average Pakistani" hates US so much.

Better to be hated and feared than ignored! Or worse held in contempt.

And the Dubai hit backfired on a biblical scale. Not only it gives a free license to Hamas to carry out suicide attacks but also results in diplomatic alienation, strained relations, risk to Israeli expats, lionizing of this fellow, gives Iran excuse to supply even more arms and highlighted Iran's role as the main supporter of Palestinians.

OK. I have not tracked it too closely. May be they goofed up on this one.

India doesn't have
1. the capability
2. the clout
3. the conditions -> Pak is the jugular vein of Af ops.
to carry out such a hit

Agree again that the capabilities need to be built and conditions need to be created. We can't just sit on these negatives and do nothing.

Clout comes with determintaion. After 9/11 everyone just knew that USA will hit back. It just has to be presented as a fait accompli.

 

[johnee]

mate i am not getting this. if you want to be seen and heard as you say the message should go that india should not be messed with, in that case the fingers will direct in the direction of south block if not today but certainly tomorrow, you can duck under it once or twice but not always and once it is out the plot will be blown out of proportions and at a time when the international community is very sensitive to terror acts (since it will be projected like that) it is certainly a mess to be avoided, because if once you are seen instigating such acts, you wont be in a position to do it again, which will also put us on a back foot on the diplomatic front with hardly anyone ready to buy our argument on cross border terrorism, which helps in isolating pakistan from time to time.

Thakur saab, the real gain will come from fear of retaliation and not the hit itself. Right now, India is perceived as a weak nation and it encourages the handlers to be more and more adventerous in their schemes. One spectacular hit by RAW at their nerve-centre(ISI HQ or PA Brigs or Terror master-minds) will have more impact than say hundred low-profile hidden small hits. Remember, the foot-soldiers are easily available to these guys. Infact, even master-minds are easily available. What can only deter them is the risk factor involved. If they know that by getting involved they are signing their death warrants, then there would be fewer master-minds wanting to get involved in something big against India.

As for international pressure, nothing can be proved as long as some iota of deniability is open. Anyway, why fear international pressure? Everyone who matters knows that every intel org does its bit, so whats the big deal? Yep, the west will make noise, but so what? What more would they do apart from making noise? The only downside, if any, is that our image of a soft guy or good boy would be shattered. And I dont think thats such a bad thing.

 

[Vinod2070]

^^ Exactly my thoughts.

 

[Singh]

Thakur saab, the real gain will come from fear of retaliation and not the hit itself. Right now, India is perceived as a weak nation and it encourages the handlers to be more and more adventerous in their schemes. One spectacular hit by RAW at their nerve-centre(ISI HQ or PA Brigs or Terror master-minds) will have more impact than say hundred low-profile hidden small hits. Remember, the foot-soldiers are easily available to these guys. Infact, even master-minds are easily available. What can only deter them is the risk factor involved. If they know that by getting involved they are signing their death warrants, then there would be fewer master-minds wanting to get involved in something big against India.
As for international pressure, nothing can be proved as long as some iota of deniability is open. Anyway, why fear international pressure? Everyone who matters knows that every intel org does its bit, so whats the big deal? Yep, the west will make noise, but so what? What more would they do apart from making noise? The only downside, if any, is that our image of a soft guy or good boy would be shattered. And I dont think thats such a bad thing.

1. Pakistan will retaliate by taking out our assets ? And they are atleast 10 times more capable than us when it comes to terrorism. Pak Army wants India to attack. These guys are desperate. These attacks will only increase in the near future.

2. India would be committing an act of terror on a vital partner of US in WoT. Diplomatic seppuku. Pak has non state actors, we don't. So we don't have any plausible deniability excuse. And the cold war is finished. We are integrated with the world. US relies heavily on Pak for carrying out its Af ops. And it needs to ensure that Pak troops stay on the western borders.

3. Currently Zardari-Gilani-Qureshi are about as pro-India politicians in Pak as they come, we can't afford to let Pak Army take over. Pak is already embroiled in terrorism, our aim is not to destabilize the country nor necessarily unite it.


A short recap of the present situation

US has acknowledged the problem is Pak.
US is cutting deals with the Af talibani irregulars to target the 5 core groups (Quetta Shura, Haqqani etc).
ISAF is conducting the largest op in a Astani province bordering Pak, the last bastion of taliban.
US is carrying out ops in Pak mainland - arrest of top Quetta Shura leaders
Drone activity has increased. - A leading Haqani family member was killed recently
India is calling for talks. - To not give Pak an excuse to move troops to the east.

--

At this point in time the common man in Pak is already terrorised by the inflation, energy crisis, food crisis, sectarian clashes and terrorism. Not much we can do to add to his misery.

 

[Vinod2070]

Singhji, this is not about spoiling the good work going on now.

The covert capability has to be there as a credible option. To be used as and when necessary and to impose the costs on the adversary.

You may chose to not exercise that option when the winds are anyway favorable.

 

[thakur_ritesh]

Vinod,

I will give you on the determination part, and I am a firm believer that if once decided and someone is out to achieve with full determination then there is absolutely no stopping.

But when it comes to clout it certainly goes beyond the determination part and in here the us is where it is because of its status as an economic super power which once achieved gets followed by military capabilities and israel is where it is because in quite a literal sense they are a b.itch to the us and a balancing act in the mid east, which is a muslim dominated area, and comes with huge reserves of gas and oil.

That apart I think what we really are not appreciating here is that once a trail is left and the trail gets picked up and subsequently highlighted, India certainly does not posses the capability to come out of it as winners on world stage, and project it as some sort of a counter hit that is being propagated here, on the contrary Pakistan will play the victim, portraying us as the aggressor and what ever little we have gained over the years in terms of clout will all get washed off especially when India remains more or less an independent foreign policy state and does raise an eyebrow or two in the west with its growth in economic terms. All you need is someone labeling you a terror sponsoring state.

Okay lets say we leave a trail, and the message is passed on, and then? What is it that Pakistan has on stake? In fact they have nothing to loose, and will be more than happy to bring India down to their levels. They are right at the bottom of the ladder in terms of economic growth, with a factory which churns out jihadis at a break neck speed who are ready to blow themselves up for no valid rime or reason, and are already labeled a terror epicenter. Are we ready to face the retaliation that would follow especially with numerous terror sleeper cells in all our major economic centers which will then be activated for then it will be a free for all and with jehadis having a free walk across the border and blowing themselves up and what would have been achieved by all this other than some false sense of bravado?

Guess what, once all this happens you will have at hand a ruined economy, with no real future prospects, and sooner than latter you will be forced to the negotiation table all humiliated at the world stage, are you ready for this? And then you have a bigger challenge in terms of Maoists who plan to take over the country, and with an economy which would be in complete dole drums will you be able to face them? Guess what, let alone the maoist threat, if you will be able to keep this country united will be a much bigger feet achieved.

All this jingoism and talk of eye for an eye, and going blind in the process sounds good in the heat of the moment, but once all is lost people only cry over what is lost, and we don’t need to look far off to see how bad it can get, examples are right across in Pakistan and A’stan. Sitting where you are, can even imagine the frustration of being a Pakistani or what hell an average Pakistani would be going through? Their’s was an economy which was going great guns not so long back and today?

Better than the above would be to go to war, where in the world would sympathize with our cause because then we can project ourselves as victims of terrorism instigated at the behest of Pakistan which has so far quite successfully been labeled as the epicenter of terrorism with a supporting hand of the state machinery.

In case we cant agree to go to war, it is better to keep it quite and hit below the belt and keep Pakistan on a boiling pot. It is human to not appreciate and value the goods we have achieved and the successe we sit on!

 

[Singh]

^ Yes, about the part of having the capability I wholeheartedly agree. We need this capability. But the part about exercising this capability, in the foreseeable future, I disagree.

 

[johnee]

1. Pakistan will retaliate by taking out our assets ? And they are atleast 10 times more capable than us when it comes to terrorism. Pak Army wants India to attack. These guys are desperate. These attacks will only increase in the near future.

Pak army wants another Op Parakram to shun their war against their trained guys being forced upon them by US. A covert operation is not what they wish. A covert operation by India taking out guys like Hafiz, Lakhvi, Dawood...and his ilk are not in Pakistan's interest. These people are considered as assets by Pak establishment. Attacking them would have negative effect on the covert war that Pakistan is carrying on India. It will also create fear of retaliation in the pigs that mastermind attacks against India. Remember, the masterminds love their life, they use foot-soldiers as cannon fodder, while they themselves live in a great luxury and have contacts within power circles. By hitting them, India would send a message that they are not immune. They would know that, now, it is not just the foot-soldier who is risking his life but they are also risking their lives by getting involved in these attacks against India.
As for Pakistan's capabilities against India. Yep, sure. And they are using their capabilities to do what they can. If they could do better, they would have done it already. Right now, nothing stops them from doing so. The handlers, master-minds, funders, trainers...etc know that they are safe, only some young fool would be trained and indoctrined for some 2-3 months and sent to do a job in India. But if they know that even they will come under line of fire, then the equation changes. Think of it this way, right now, we are fighting a defensive war, a defensive unconventional war against Pakistan. We can foil their attempts hundred times, yet they will try again because they are safe in their locations. But if we retaliate covertly for every attack made on us by hitting one of their chief guys then the attempts would not be as frequent or as brazen. Pakistan gave up the option of conventional war against India after it was defeated. We had defended three times before that, but they kept coming back until we defeated them by going on offensive. The same has to be done in this unconventional war.

2. India would be committing an act of terror on a vital partner of US in WoT. Diplomatic seppuku. Pak has non state actors, we don't. So we don't have any plausible deniability excuse. And the cold war is finished. We are integrated with the world. US relies heavily on Pak for carrying out its Af ops. And it needs to ensure that Pak troops stay on the western borders.

We have plausible deniability. Pakistan has no non-state actors, they invented them. We could do the same. US is not stopping its vital partner from attacking India, so it better take a hike. US' WoT is its headache. We have our worries to ponder over. Anyway, nothing can be proved. Remember, Pakistan has non-state actors, so maybe one of them did it.
The dialogue would be like this:
US: We told you guys that we need Pak troops on western border, then why did you do it?
India: what did we do? We did not move our troops and have shown restraint after you guys pleaded us to do that.
US: Then why did you carry out this attack of Hafiz guy?
India: We did not.
US: We know you did. Accept it.
India: We did not. There are so many non-state actors in Pak, may be someone else did it.
US: No, you did it. RAW did it.
India: Oh, come now, how can you be so sure? Pakistan is saying this so that they dont have to do the job on their western front.
US: Anyway, what you did was wrong, dont repeat it again. It creates a lot of mess for us.
India: We did nothing.

3. Currently Zardari-Gilani-Qureshi are about as pro-India politicians in Pak as they come, we can't afford to let Pak Army take over. Pak is already embroiled in terrorism, our aim is not to destabilize the country nor necessarily unite it.

Are you kidding? What will India gain with pro-India politicians and what will India lose if PA take over? PA is still incharge of their foreign policy vis-a-vis India. Our aim is to protect ourselves. BTW, if PA takeover, why will it be destabilized? PA is rightnow pulling strings from behind and if it takes over, it will pull strings directly. No difference whatsover as far as India is concerned.

Our long term aim should be to destabilize the Pakistan without much spillover effect on India.

A short recap of the present situation

US has acknowledged the problem is Pak.

Yet, it continues to give huge aids and weapons to Pak, all of which are used against India.

US is cutting deals with the Af talibani irregulars to target the 5 core groups (Quetta Shura, Haqqani etc).

Hardly matters to us until and unless LeT or JuD or such groups based in Punjab province of Pakistan are untouched because these are the ones attacking India right now not Quetta Shura or Haqqani.

ISAF is conducting the largest op in a Astani province bordering Pak, the last bastion of taliban.
US is carrying out ops in Pak mainland - arrest of top Quetta Shura leaders
Drone activity has increased. - A leading Haqani family member was killed recently

As I said, not our main priority.

India is calling for talks. - To not give Pak an excuse to move troops to the east.

Exactly. We are talking to not give them any excuse, so that they can move their troops to western borders. We can keep talking and carry on with our covert ops. Of course, the Paks will make noise after the hit, but you must remember that in Pakistan everything is blamed on foreign hand(meaning India, US and Israel), so we should rubbish their attempts to link us in the hit.

At this point in time the common man in Pak is already terrorised by the inflation, energy crisis, food crisis, sectarian clashes and terrorism. Not much we can do to add to his misery.

Common man of Pak is concern of Pakistan's rulers. Indian rulers need to worry about common man of India who is being attacked by terrorists who are being funded, indoctrined, trained, nurtured, handled from Pakistan.

 

[Vinod2070]

^ Yes, about the part of having the capability I wholeheartedly agree. We need this capability. But the part about exercising this capability, in the foreseeable future, I disagree.

In case we cant agree to go to war, it is better to keep it quite and hit below the belt and keep Pakistan on a boiling pot. It is human to not appreciate and value the goods we have achieved and the successe we sit on!

I think we are very close in thinking here. Have a credible covert option on the ready. Use it judiciously, not for mindless terror.

One more think would be shedding this image of a state that can't make up its mind. During the NDA rule, India came across as a state that knew what it wanted. May be they made mistakes too but our policy was consistent and we worked to a purpose.

One doesn't get that sense now. Incompetent people in key responsibilities is making it worse.

 

[ajtr]

Think pakistan as a mischief maker gunda in the peaceful neighbourhood called south asia.now if anyone wants to get its work done always approaches the the gunda.so you have got all world powers UK/USA/China/saudi arabia help him to get their work done in our neighbourhood.even our immediate neighbours like bangladesh,nepal srilanka are more friendly with pak than with india.only because pakistan has been able to establish itself as dada by continuously pin pricking india and our neighbours do see it that we are unable to do anything to pak so they also get start daring to pin prick india like the present case of nepal and bangladesh. isarel's case is different with that of a hero turned villain of bollywood movie.israel's has to dp all this coz of fearto its existence.so israel established itself as dada of middle-east giving sound defeat to 8 countries in 1967 war.so here you've worlds superpower always supporting israel in middle east.now india always try to project themselves as good guys and religiously follow world rules(thats other thing that indians in india never follow rule ).so everyone think us to be meek and weak .and its the meek and weak only who gets suppressed.

 

[johnee]

^^ People(or Countries) in power always respect those people(or countries) who show power. They hate them but respect them. A cricketing analogy: Aussies hate India but respect us when they are in the field and off it. On the contrary no one hated us a few years back when our older generation was on gaurd but no one respected us either.

It is the same in geo-politics. If act like a strong nation working in our self-interest then obviously not everyone will like us, but everyone definitely respect us. Look at China, it is not loved but it is respected nevertheless. Its words are taken very seriously by both its opponents and friends. India needs learn these things. Or perhaps like in cricket the newer generation will change these things...