Good writeup.
Any thoughts on whether current Afghanistan situation will impact formation of an official G2? Which is more likely, US going towards G2 with China or away from G2 towards official Cold War 2.0?
I Don't know. I think its still fluid. Much depends on Xi's ambitions and his continued grip on CCP. We will know in 5 years which way things go. If China gets self-sufficiency in semiconductors earlier, we will get to the deciding fork sooner.
I think Iran could be the deciding swing player. It has option of both the US-Iran nuclear deal or the chinese $400 billion investment. What happens to iran nuclear deal in the next few months could give pointers to what Chinese & american strategy will be in afghanistan.
India is doing the right thing now by engaging with all the players russia iran usa taliban Northern resistance and keeping our options open. In a changing world, being flexible is the best asset.
Thinking long term, India should increase its influence operations in all of our partner countries especially USA. Modi's Trump Rally is a laudable decision because it signals we have finally moved away from our lazy, cowardly risk-averse non-interference. Too bad the move did not pay off. But its good that GoI is thinking of high risk/high reward moves instead of playing it safe. When you play, you win some, lose some but not playing will always hand the win to your opponent.
To increase our leverage in future, we need to be more active in their internal affairs. The best thing we can do is promote Hinduism aggressively in US and Europe. There is tremendous social churn and people are looking for new ideas. It is fertile ground for Dharma. If you look back at social upheavals and revolutions that happened in europe during 18th, 19th centuries the context was changing economic scenario due to industrial revolution. If European and american economies stagnate in the next 30 years, there could be similar scenario and people will want to identify with new social and political structures. A person reconnected with Dharmic roots becomes an indo-phile for life. This is a field with low risk/high return. In response to this there is nothing more west can do that it hasn't done already: from mass conversions, arming insurgents to shady NGOs. We are going to get all these regardless of our actions.
To build the intellectual foundations for a stronger Dharma presence in europe & america, we need to promote India origin Theory, promote Sanskrit studies and similar things to give some fuel to our supporters in the academia. It took westerners 200 years to destroy world's connection with Indian knowledge. The pace of change is faster now so we should be able undo their damage in next 30 years.