Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan 2021: Impact on India

Srinivas_K

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Dude. It's over. They will be confined a couple of pockets in Afghanistan like the northern alliance was 20 years back. Far from overthrowing anything in the near future.

And I am pretty sure that guy just pulled the casualty numbers from his ass. While I appreciate your hope that Taliban would be gone, It ain't happening son.
Resistance will surely gain the upper hand but it may take time.
 

asianobserve

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Resistance will surely gain the upper hand but it may take time.

Unfortunately the odds are heavily stacked up against the NA. Principally the US has no desire to play a prominent role in that part of the World at the moment. In fact, it would be better for the US if Islamists of all colors set up shop in Afghanistan as the most immediate victim will be China, Russia next.
 

Waanar

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Unfortunately the odds are heavily stacked up against the NA. Principally the US has no desire to play a prominent role in that part of the World at the moment. In fact, it would be better for the US if Islamists of all colors set up shop in Afghanistan as the most immediate victim will be China, Russia next.
True.

Wonder if ISIS-K will have the balls to hit China for Uyghur's cleansing drive.
So far, China has kept all others at bay.
 

asianobserve

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True.

Wonder if ISIS-K will have the balls to hit China for Uyghur's cleansing drive.
So far, China has kept all others at bay.

That remains to be seen. But I don't see why not as it would give more credibility to ISIS-K over the Taliban in the Islamist universe. Moreover, with China trying to cozy up with the Taliban, and a lot of Taliban (that ISIS-K would like to recruit to its side) being sympathetic with Uyghurs, ISIS-K does appear to have every incentive to attack China.

Here we will learn how much control Pakistan has on ISIS-K.
 

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Resistance will surely gain the upper hand but it may take time.
Unless Taliban turn aggressive towards neighbors, the Resistance will be confined to pockets, much worse than the position of the Northern alliance in 2001, before the invasion, when they controlled a good contiguous part of the north..
Without Russian, Central Asian support, there is nothing much the Resistance can do to make significant gains in northern Afghanistan..
 

AsuraKiller203

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Thanks for your deep insights. I agree with your points. Any predictions on the outcome of Modi-Biden upcoming meeting?
Many issues in flux right now, from auckus, EU, af-pak, US military bases in India. Changing scenario is good for us gives us more options. Face to face meeting between Modi and biden Harris is good, at least we will know how serious they are and tell us more about next 4 years trajectory .
 

maximus777

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Many issues in flux right now, from auckus, EU, af-pak, US military bases in India. Changing scenario is good for us gives us more options. Face to face meeting between Modi and biden Harris is good, at least we will know how serious they are and tell us more about next 4 years trajectory .
The expectations are really low and it cant hurt to test the waters. Dolund in WH would have been a different ball game altogether!
 

AsuraKiller203

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Good writeup.
Any thoughts on whether current Afghanistan situation will impact formation of an official G2? Which is more likely, US going towards G2 with China or away from G2 towards official Cold War 2.0?
I Don't know. I think its still fluid. Much depends on Xi's ambitions and his continued grip on CCP. We will know in 5 years which way things go. If China gets self-sufficiency in semiconductors earlier, we will get to the deciding fork sooner.

I think Iran could be the deciding swing player. It has option of both the US-Iran nuclear deal or the chinese $400 billion investment. What happens to iran nuclear deal in the next few months could give pointers to what Chinese & american strategy will be in afghanistan.

India is doing the right thing now by engaging with all the players russia iran usa taliban Northern resistance and keeping our options open. In a changing world, being flexible is the best asset.

Thinking long term, India should increase its influence operations in all of our partner countries especially USA. Modi's Trump Rally is a laudable decision because it signals we have finally moved away from our lazy, cowardly risk-averse non-interference. Too bad the move did not pay off. But its good that GoI is thinking of high risk/high reward moves instead of playing it safe. When you play, you win some, lose some but not playing will always hand the win to your opponent.

To increase our leverage in future, we need to be more active in their internal affairs. The best thing we can do is promote Hinduism aggressively in US and Europe. There is tremendous social churn and people are looking for new ideas. It is fertile ground for Dharma. If you look back at social upheavals and revolutions that happened in europe during 18th, 19th centuries the context was changing economic scenario due to industrial revolution. If European and american economies stagnate in the next 30 years, there could be similar scenario and people will want to identify with new social and political structures. A person reconnected with Dharmic roots becomes an indo-phile for life. This is a field with low risk/high return. In response to this there is nothing more west can do that it hasn't done already: from mass conversions, arming insurgents to shady NGOs. We are going to get all these regardless of our actions.

To build the intellectual foundations for a stronger Dharma presence in europe & america, we need to promote India origin Theory, promote Sanskrit studies and similar things to give some fuel to our supporters in the academia. It took westerners 200 years to destroy world's connection with Indian knowledge. The pace of change is faster now so we should be able undo their damage in next 30 years.
 

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