Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan 2021: Impact on India

[ezsasa]

Afghanistan is the pot which is brewing,Taliban needs partners because it needs money ,their economy was aid based ,china & qatar will given them money but for how long has india need to watch this situation unfold , anything can happen in 6 months factional war or ISKP waging one,bakis ,Russia & Iran are in no position to give aid money

I’d say it’s better to presume taliban are gonna stick around in power in Afghanistan for a decade, than to presume they are gonna be in trouble in short term.

 

[Anandhu Krishna]

No, she didn’t.

There is a thread on White House communications during Nixon presidency during 1971 war. you can go thru all the documents when you have time.

muricans suspected Indira wanted to expand the theatre to PoK, because they were worried about their lapdog.
right from the beginning Indian side both officially and unofficially keeps giving assurances that our theatre is limited to East Pakistan

I have read in an old US intel. doc. that Indira had plans to go forword. The assurances itself could have been due to the US pressure.
but the point in that comment was that India, even today doesn't take its national security seriously and either bend over backwards or folds under pressure.

 

[Jimih]

CPEC all the way, Full support by Taliban

 

[Jimih]

PRICK is invited, I mean PRIC along with Turkey and Qatar

A Taliban official to Al Jazeera: We invited Turkey, China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar to participate in the government announcement day

 

[doreamon]

Parde mein rehne do, Parda na uthao

Bollywood can make a romantic movie on that .. when wind blows the screen slightly and actor watches the clean black fabric of actress .. in slow motion and song in background ..

 

[EarthCitizen]

I like what you say and I too am totally in favour of it.

However, the problems are:

1. Fighters from Tajik base would not be able to threat PAF as India doesn't have the support system in those areas. In today's fight a fighter without force multipliers like AWACS or ground based radar network is way too vulnerable. Especially since PAF will definitely send out its AWACS with its fighters to face India.

2. We can't send in our own boys as that would be death sentence for them if Panjshir falls. Also, the hills of Panjshir is completely different than the terrain we have mastered.

But, I would like if India retaliates against PAF and lights up LOC in warning, which Modi wont do because like it or not, such a move will cost us too much diplomatic coins.

As for high table of Kabul. It is a loss, but not a big one. Unless India accepts the inevitable and takes away PoK and GB, India would always remain a minor player in the region.

I am sure RA&W knew that ANA was going to fall and had prepared Massoud's NA with support. Yet, it seems it wasn't enough as Porkis brought in high tech war in the game. It obviously was out of syllabus for RA&W, as they didn't think that Porkis would dare to show its hand so openly.

And, yes, India did lose some in this game. But, it didn't have any option either. Given Russia is reluctant to play and rather willing to screw over the former allies of US to undermine US authority in global scale, India obviously was not getting much support in Tajikistan. Also, recent souring of relationship with Iran under Chinese influence also blocked another route for India.

So, it is best for India now to dust of its hand and prepare for the next event.

1. Support any resistance financially and with equipment.

2. Prepare to take PoK and GB in the first opportunity.

Like it or not, except for FATF connection where Pak can shift terror camps to Afghanistan to get out of grey list, Pakistan had gained little and lost more. They have always gotten bitten by the snakes they fed. Nothing says that it will any different now.

As for FATF, the FATF don't care for geography so much as the money trail. Even with camps shifted to Afghanistan, the money trail would link to Pak and if India plays well, Pak will remain in grey. Especially after showing its hand in Afghanistan.

You are right India can become major player in Afghanistan only if India re-capture Gilgit Baltistan

 

[ezsasa]

I have read in an old US intel. doc. that Indira had plans to go forword. The assurances itself could have been due to the US pressure.
but the point in that comment was that India, even today doesn't take its national security seriously and either bend over backwards or folds under pressure.

yes, Nixon administration had such concerns. that doesn’t mean they concerns are rooted in reality. If Yahya Khan/Bhutto writes a letter saying “hum ko Hindu maar denge kaat denge”, then ofcourse their SEATO CENTO ally will take those concerns into consideration on record.

need to recognise that US administration is not a monolith. CIA might have different opinion, pentagon might have a different opinion, White House might have a different opinion, and congress might have a different opinion.

when there were no plans to take action, the question of folding under pressure does not arise.

India has been a fertile playground for various foreign interest groups for decades, muricans will insert narratives against soviets, soviets inserted narratives against muricans, brits inserted narratives against Indian nationalists etc etc.

If any, one blatant injustice we did to our selves is not documenting in public domain, our side of the story during major strategic events post independence using primary sources properly. whether it is right or wrong because technically all scenarios are still active for us both on western border and eastern border is a different debate

 

[another_armchair]

PRICK is invited, I mean PRIC along with Turkey and Qatar

A Taliban official to Al Jazeera: We invited Turkey, China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar to participate in the government announcement day

A few SPICE bombs during the ceremony will put all confusion to rest regarding which side we are on.

We can offer to rebuild their parliament again.

 

[doreamon]

A few SPICE bombs during the ceremony will put all confusion to rest regarding which side we are on.

We can offer to rebuild their parliament again.

Is it happening in the parliament ? I hope they dont do this ceremony in the parliament building at least ...

 

[Lost user]

I like what you say and I too am totally in favour of it.

However, the problems are:

1. Fighters from Tajik base would not be able to threat PAF as India doesn't have the support system in those areas. In today's fight a fighter without force multipliers like AWACS or ground based radar network is way too vulnerable. Especially since PAF will definitely send out its AWACS with its fighters to face India.

2. We can't send in our own boys as that would be death sentence for them if Panjshir falls. Also, the hills of Panjshir is completely different than the terrain we have mastered.

But, I would like if India retaliates against PAF and lights up LOC in warning, which Modi wont do because like it or not, such a move will cost us too much diplomatic coins.

As for high table of Kabul. It is a loss, but not a big one. Unless India accepts the inevitable and takes away PoK and GB, India would always remain a minor player in the region.

I am sure RA&W knew that ANA was going to fall and had prepared Massoud's NA with support. Yet, it seems it wasn't enough as Porkis brought in high tech war in the game. It obviously was out of syllabus for RA&W, as they didn't think that Porkis would dare to show its hand so openly.

And, yes, India did lose some in this game. But, it didn't have any option either. Given Russia is reluctant to play and rather willing to screw over the former allies of US to undermine US authority in global scale, India obviously was not getting much support in Tajikistan. Also, recent souring of relationship with Iran under Chinese influence also blocked another route for India.

So, it is best for India now to dust of its hand and prepare for the next event.

1. Support any resistance financially and with equipment.

2. Prepare to take PoK and GB in the first opportunity.

Like it or not, except for FATF connection where Pak can shift terror camps to Afghanistan to get out of grey list, Pakistan had gained little and lost more. They have always gotten bitten by the snakes they fed. Nothing says that it will any different now.

As for FATF, the FATF don't care for geography so much as the money trail. Even with camps shifted to Afghanistan, the money trail would link to Pak and if India plays well, Pak will remain in grey. Especially after showing its hand in Afghanistan.

Agree.. I guess the only right time to use the fighters based in Tajikistan, would be in case of a full blown India Pakistan war, where PAF retreats to Afghan air bases to save its assets.. With PAF assets already decimated, and India partially owning Pak airspace, would be the right time for the fighter squadron in Tajikistan, to pounce on any retreating PAF assets.. So, in effect the Indian bases at Farkhor and Ayni serve to deny PAF any strategic depth of having access to afghan air bases during a full blown India-Pakistan air war..

 

[Kumata]

I’d say it’s better to presume taliban are gonna stick around in power in Afghanistan for a decade, than to presume they are gonna be in trouble in short term.

I don't think talibs can survive a decade... Thats too long... Even if they do... Internal squabbles will keep them busy.... Moreover people being used to freebies earlier will had to content with less supplies...

Again... A new player will emerge...some powerful warlord will declare jihad & Civil War and cycle repeats...

IMO, A stable Afghanistan is not in Porki interests. Who will give a dime to them if all get settled peacefully...

 

[ezsasa]

I don't think talibs can survive a decade... Thats too long... Even if they do... Internal squabbles will keep them busy.... Moreover people being used to freebies earlier will had to content with less supplies...

Again... A new player will emerge...some powerful warlord will declare jihad & Civil War and cycle repeats...

may be or may be not, we don’t know.

Instead of going into a meltdown every six months because ground reality does not match expectations, might as well make presumptions that help maintaining own sanity.

this advice was for folks who have a habit of reviewing “strategic plays” on a daily and hourly basis.

 

[Kumata]

may be or may be not, we don’t know.

Instead of going into a meltdown every six months because ground reality does not match expectations, might as well make presumptions that help maintaining own sanity.

this advice was for folks who have a habit of reviewing “strategic plays” on a daily and hourly basis.

 

[another_armchair]

Is it happening in the parliament ? I hope they dont do this ceremony in the parliament building at least ...

In gloomy times like these, jingo like me can only console myself with wet dreams of grandeur.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Bollywood can make a romantic movie on that .. when wind blows the screen slightly and actor watches the clean black fabric of actress .. in slow motion and song in background ..

Don’t give them ideas for anti-sekoolar movies

 

[jackprince]

I don't think talibs can survive a decade... Thats too long... Even if they do... Internal squabbles will keep them busy.... Moreover people being used to freebies earlier will had to content with less supplies...

Again... A new player will emerge...some powerful warlord will declare jihad & Civil War and cycle repeats...

IMO, A stable Afghanistan is not in Porki interests. Who will give a dime to them if all get settled peacefully...

Unlikely.

If Talibs gain the trust of Russia and China and some arrangement with Iran, they can basically secure itself completely from any outside intervention, and without outside influence and support nio warlord can gain enough power to challenge Talibs with the arsenal left behind by the USA.

The recent examples where Talibs are cutting down all warlords to size - mostly figuratively and sometimes literally too - shows that Talibs are serious about transforming the traditional power structure of Afghanistan. The concept of Iran like theocratic state, if succeeds would see Afghanistan getting more united under one banner than it ever was in last 1000 years.

Don't sneeze at the idea of Khalifat of Talibans in Afghanistan either. It is completely doable, especially if Baradar like smart heads can influence the crazy ones.

The populace is unlikely to mount an effective resistance as they are completely cut off from outside support and they - like most civilians of whole world - would rather adjust under Islamic rule than seek for an alien concept of democracy. Frankly, in a country like Afghanistan, democracy is as good as dead in inception. It had been so for last 2 decades and the puppets in Kabul must have soured mood for democracy forever in the rural areas.

 

[AmoghaVarsha]

India's relationship with Russia has undergone a paradigm shift with this.

Russia has firmly supported pakis n talibs, thats a zero sum game for us.

Its sad that the US is a very unreliable partner, else time was ripe for us to get into a military alliance

 

[another_armchair]

Don’t give them ideas for anti-sekoolar movies

Next scene - Taliban appointed class monitor steps in and beheads the girl(actress).

The boy is sent to a cave for re-education(We all know what that means, don't we? ;-) ).

 

[ezsasa]

A very consequential speech by tony Blair, which will have no consequential outcomes. 8 years too late for such a speech.

Tony Blair would be lucky if he is not cancelled because of what he is saying, considering how opposing views are being silenced these days around the world especially in Europe and US.

 

[Jimih]

India's relationship with Russia has undergone a paradigm shift with this.

Russia has firmly supported pakis n talibs, thats a zero sum game for us.

Its sad that the US is a very unreliable partner, else time was ripe for us to get into a military alliance

Thats why India is hesitant to be fully committed with QUAD.
India knows very well that Russia will play double game. And after all India has to brunt the fallout as both Russia and India are in the same hemisphere not US.

Iran, China and Russia are the ones who are the most relieved countries with America's retreat from Afghanistan.