I really like your posts buddy and have been following them closely but I differ with you on this particular point. Long post, bear with me.
Current Fallout -
- With the Telebunnies winning and resistance wiped out, India has lost whatever little leverage it had. For example, if there was a sharing of power with NA and NA had Indian backing, India would also have leverage in the high table via NA.
- The Paki + Turkey + China axis will be supremely emboldened by this win, particularly if rumors are true that Pak has helped Telebunnies win this round. This is coming after Armenian win and this newfound confidence will be channeled against India next and her destruction.
- Pak, Turkey, and China literally own Telebunny a$$ now. I'm sure the support didn't come for free - rather absolute allegiance to the nexus. Also, Pak gets its strategic depth + US weapon systems left behind. Strategic depth is important - for example, what if Pak bases some of its nuclear assets out of Afg, in case of total annihilation of mainland or shift its terror training to Afg to avoid FATF sanctions. It's basically freehand for Chinese to exploit resources and Pak to leverage Afg for nefarious designs.
- India has had historical ties with the Northern Alliance, even from days when shit was really bad. We never let NA really die off and what a sad way to end it.
- Everyone and their dad will take India and Russia as cucks now. Not that we care but it emboldens the enemy to try all sorts of misadventure. We have superpower aspirations however we are always scared to play it big, take major decisions, or play it dirty. This is not how superpowers act.
What we could have done -
- I too feel all this talk of taking POK and opening support route etc. are bunkum. We can't make plans based on future if/else scenarios which are highly questionable.
- However, Tajiks seem to have had access to Panjshir via aerial route and this route would have been vital. Telebunnies gave enough time to the NA to prepare, I think cos of doubts if they can take the NA head on. Hence the Paki intervention. This time was crucial. We could have sent men and material to prepare the NA defenses (we are champs with mountain and jungle/guerilla warfare).
- Taking the Tajiks + Russia into confidence (basically play a leadership role) and keeping the airspace open. If that means basing some SU-30s in Tajik airbase and threatening PAK with retribution, if they bring their air cavalry, so be it.
- Would be a good testing ground for our anti-drone technologies as well. Now I know, we don't have enough yet for our own armed forces. Now this is the problem, why no planning in advance? We never foresee such security scenarios and are always in reactionary mode.
- Keep LOC hot. The ceasefire was nonsense and the moment Telebunnies get settled, Pak will throw it out of the window anyways. Give them threats, that if they do any misadventure in Afg, we will cross LOC and do a land grab. Fcuk what the world things - the retribution message should be loud and clear to them.
- Finally, try to hold NA defenses as long as possible so that a ceasefire and doldrum are reached. Paki + Telebunnies are forced to negotiate with NA.
PAK is our nemesis and everywhere they are involved, we should make their life hell because every waking minute, they are planning the same. With Telebunnies making noises on Kashmir even before they have declared their government, our blood should boil to know who the string pullers are behind the puppet. Well, let's see what the future holds now.
I like what you say and I too am totally in favour of it.
However, the problems are:
1. Fighters from Tajik base would not be able to threat PAF as India doesn't have the support system in those areas. In today's fight a fighter without force multipliers like AWACS or ground based radar network is way too vulnerable. Especially since PAF will definitely send out its AWACS with its fighters to face India.
2. We can't send in our own boys as that would be death sentence for them if Panjshir falls. Also, the hills of Panjshir is completely different than the terrain we have mastered.
But, I would like if India retaliates against PAF and lights up LOC in warning, which Modi wont do because like it or not, such a move will cost us too much diplomatic coins.
As for high table of Kabul. It is a loss, but not a big one. Unless India accepts the inevitable and takes away PoK and GB, India would always remain a minor player in the region.
I am sure RA&W knew that ANA was going to fall and had prepared Massoud's NA with support. Yet, it seems it wasn't enough as Porkis brought in high tech war in the game. It obviously was out of syllabus for RA&W, as they didn't think that Porkis would dare to show its hand so openly.
And, yes, India did lose some in this game. But, it didn't have any option either. Given Russia is reluctant to play and rather willing to screw over the former allies of US to undermine US authority in global scale, India obviously was not getting much support in Tajikistan. Also, recent souring of relationship with Iran under Chinese influence also blocked another route for India.
So, it is best for India now to dust of its hand and prepare for the next event.
1. Support any resistance financially and with equipment.
2. Prepare to take PoK and GB in the first opportunity.
Like it or not, except for FATF connection where Pak can shift terror camps to Afghanistan to get out of grey list, Pakistan had gained little and lost more. They have always gotten bitten by the snakes they fed. Nothing says that it will any different now.
As for FATF, the FATF don't care for geography so much as the money trail. Even with camps shifted to Afghanistan, the money trail would link to Pak and if India plays well, Pak will remain in grey. Especially after showing its hand in Afghanistan.
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